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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 4846048, member: 12088"] I agree, and I'm game for speculating. [B]But just to be clear, I think the NC is SC's to lose this year, and if they're upset in the tournament, then it's UCLA's to lose.[/B] Now that I'm thinking of upsets, even long shots, I can imagine a way UConn could pull one off. There is really no one on SC who can match up with Paige, not Raven, not Bree, not Te-hina, not Kitts, not Milaysia. There also isn't a good matchup for Aaliyah. On the other side, SC is simply bigger and stronger in the front court with Kamila, Watkins, Feagin and Kitts. That's too much to overcome even if they only have an ordinary game. SC averages 50 rebounds/g and will probably out rebound UConn by >15. This is not the stuff upsets are made of. I think the keys are Kamilla and Raven. [B]But...[/B] if Kamila has a poor game, or gets in foul trouble (which, frankly, hasn't been a problem for her), and if Ice has picked up her game a bit by then, I could see Watkins Feagin Kitts not being able to pick up the slack against Aaliyah. This is the first improbable thing that would have to go UConn's way. The second is the freshmen + Nika have to outplay Raven Bree and Te-hina. To do this, I think Geno has KK defend Raven, who is just a little too quick for Nika. Then Ash and Nika switch as needed on Bree and Te-hina. And that's just the defensive side. On offense, KK Ash and Q have to have hot shooting nights. Can KK burn Raven with that crossover? Can Ash get open for that midrange jumpshot, and can she hit from 3? If they can, and Q gets hot, then things get a lot easier for Paige and Aaliyah. The final ingredient is Paige working her magic. Let the freshmen worry about the perimeter. She needs to be really clever in the paint -- not against Kamila, but against the others. She's quicker than they are and much more talented as a scorer. In conclusion, an upset is just barely possible -- and I think somewhat less unlikely in a second meeting in the tournament than in February. [/QUOTE]

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