UConn Opponents Today (1/27)

[tzznandrew]

Lots of games on the slate today, most of which are low majors. Michigan, Temple, and Tulane should probably all win. The low majors are all close, but if Maine wins they may finally climb out of the 300s in the RPI.

A good day, and UConn's opponents go 6-1. A bad day and its like 3-4.

P5
Michigan (15-5, RPI: 30) vs. Rutgers (5-14, RPI: 235)

American
Temple (11-7, RPI: 65) @ East Carolina (9-11, RPI: 167)
Tulane (8-13, RPI: 224) vs. USF (4-17, RPI: 244)

Low Majors
Maine (6-13, RPI: 306) @ Hartford (6-14, RPI: 310)
New Hampshire (11-8, RPI: 196) vs. Vermont (12-9, RPI: 169)
UMass Lowell (7-13, RPI: 292) @ Albany (14-6, RPI: 112)
Sacred Heart (5-14, RPI: 291) @ LIU-Brooklyn (9-10, RPI: 299)

 

[Leebo]

kenpom chances for each

Michigan - 97%
Temple - 57%
Tulane - 79%
Maine - 38%
New Hampshire - 52%
UMass Lowell - 5%
Sacred Heart - 31%

4-3 would not be bad considering the chances some of these teams have to win. If we consider the UMass Lowell game a loss, the chances of all 6 other teams winning is 2.7%

It's a long shot.

 

[Inyatkin]

The fact that Tulane has a 79 percent chance to beat a conference opponent is deeply depressing.

 

[tzznandrew]

kenpom chances for each

Michigan - 97%
Temple - 57%
Tulane - 79%
Maine - 38%
New Hampshire - 52%
UMass Lowell - 5%
Sacred Heart - 31%

4-3 would not be bad considering the chances some of these teams have to win. If we consider the UMass Lowell game a loss, the chances of all 6 other teams winning is 2.7%

It's a long shot.

I think I looked pretty closely at records and RPI to make that judgement. 6-1 would be an exceptional day.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Do the intra-AAC games matter that much for our RPI? I would imagine the only difference shows up in which teams we play twice as opposed to just once.

NH hasn't been a trainwreck, but those opponent RPI numbers are Exhibit A about what we're doing wrong. How hard would it have been to schedule Vermont (who is sometimes decent) instead of Maine (who is always terrible)?

 

[bballgrda]

The fact that Tulane has a 79 percent chance to beat a conference opponent is deeply depressing.

How about Michigan having a 97% chance to beat a conference opponent. In the B1G no less.

 

[Tenspro2002]

How about Michigan having a 97% chance to beat a conference opponent. In the B1G no less.

That's just amusing, given who the opponent is.

 

[tzznandrew]

Do the intra-AAC games matter that much for our RPI? I would imagine the only difference shows up in which teams we play twice as opposed to just once.

Yup. This is one of those cases.

 

[Inyatkin]

How about Michigan having a 97% chance to beat a conference opponent. In the B1G no less.

Would Tulane be favored over Rutgers? That's the real question.

 

[Leebo]

Would Tulane be favored over Rutgers? That's the real question.

Based on games between similarly ranked teams in kenpom, it's likely Tulane would be slightly favored even if the game was at Rutgers.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Based on games between similarly ranked teams in kenpom, it's likely Tulane would be slightly favored even if the game was at Rutgers.

What does kenpom have for a line for UConn vs. Cincy tomorrow?

 

[Leebo]

67-63 UConn, 68% chance for a win

 

[tzznandrew]

Lowell is getting blown out.

The other games are close.

 

[tzznandrew]

Barring a Creighton/Wake Forest collapse, Michigan is well on the way to a win.
Temple lost on the road to East Carolina, effectively ending whatever slim NCAAT hopes they had.
Tulane is down 8 at the half.


New Hampshire is getting blown out at home against Vermont.
Lowell has made it a game against Albany (kiss of death here).
Maine is in a 1 point game against Hartford under 6 minutes left.
Sacred Heart down 3 under 4 to play.

Looks like 3-4 is best case scenario. Probably 1-6 or 2-5.

 

[CTBasketball]

Temple always shoots themselves in the foot.

 

[tzznandrew]

2-5.

Not a great RPI night.

 

[Oregon Owl]

Temple always shoots themselves in the foot.

I think defecate the bed better describes what Temple did tonight, after beating SMU on Sunday.

 

[donyell34]

What the hell is going on with Temple? Strange team.

 

[Jerry1714]

I think defecate the bed better describes what Temple did tonight, after beating SMU on Sunday.

road game against a bad team after their biggest win of the year, if anyone is surprised ECU covered and won does not pay a lot of attention to college athletics. major let down game.

 

[Jerry1714]

Would Tulane be favored over Rutgers? That's the real question.

On a neutral site Tulane would have a 67% chance of winning and be a 4.5 point favorite.

Rutgers would not be favored on a neutral site against any team in the AAC. USF would be the smallest spread at 4 and USF having a 66% chance to win. The same can actually be said for BC.