UCONN/ND and Seeding. A big time game

[01Neaggrad02]

Tonight is bigger than just a re-rematch of the UCONN/ND game. Tonight will have a drastic effect on the NCAA tournament. While no matter who wins I believe both teams are a lock for a #1 seed, it is the positions of those #1's that are really going to become important. IF UCONN wins... I could see the 4 #1's in order being: Baylor, Stanford, UCONN, and Notre Dame. If ND wins switch the the last two.

Why is that important? Well being the last #1 seed would result in a Final Four Match up with Baylor. Being the 3rd #1 would most likely result in meeting up with Stanford.

To be honest with you I would love to see a slug fest between Baylor and Notre Dame. I want to see if Griner can handle the bigs of ND still, and if Sims can take Diggins out of the game.

Also, stop and think about what guarding Griner did to Charles in the 09 final four. She was working her butt off and in the Stanford game, our players came out a little flat... because they had worked so in the final four game.

Do not get me wrong, Ia m not saying Stanford is going to be a cake walk, but I would rather have Stanford than the other two. Also being the 4th #1 would potentially result in having Maryland as your #2. I would love to see Tennessee as Baylor's #2.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Dang, Charlie and I think alike. I like his brackets a lot!

 

[VAUConnFan]

Tonight is bigger than just a re-rematch of the UCONN/ND game. Tonight will have a drastic effect on the NCAA tournament. While no matter who wins I believe both teams are a lock for a #1 seed, it is the positions of those #1's that are really going to become important. IF UCONN wins... I could see the 4 #1's in order being: Baylor, Stanford, UCONN, and Notre Dame. If ND wins switch the the last two.

Why is that important? Well being the last #1 seed would result in a Final Four Match up with Baylor. Being the 3rd #1 would most likely result in meeting up with Stanford.

To be honest with you I would love to see a slug fest between Baylor and Notre Dame. I want to see if Griner can handle the bigs of ND still, and if Sims can take Diggins out of the game.

Also, stop and think about what guarding Griner did to Charles in the 09 final four. She was working her butt off and in the Stanford game, our players came out a little flat... because they had worked so in the final four game.

Do not get me wrong, Ia m not saying Stanford is going to be a cake walk, but I would rather have Stanford than the other two. Also being the 4th #1 would potentially result in having Maryland as your #2. I would love to see Tennessee as Baylor's #2.

I do not believe the Final Four matchups are determined by seeding. I am pretty sure the men's brackets are predetermined. The women's brackets may also be predetermined as far as which regions will match up in the semifinals.

 

[HuskyNan]

To be honest with you I would love to see a slug fest between Baylor and Notre Dame. I want to see if Griner can handle the bigs of ND still, and if Sims can take Diggins out of the game.

They've already played. Baylor won by 13 in Waco.

 

[Vowelguy]

I do not believe the Final Four matchups are determined by seeding. I am pretty sure the men's brackets are predetermined. The women's brackets may also be predetermined as far as which regions will match up in the semifinals.

No, they're not predetermined. The committee releases the final four matchups with the rest of the bracket on selection Monday. The overall #1 is paired with the weakest #1 seed.

As Geno noted last year, it's premature to get too bent out of shape by somethign that far downt he road -- you never know what's going to happen. After all, last year everyone was predicting those super semifinals of Stan-Bay/UConn-Tenn, and we saw how that worked out.

It's also very hard to predict what the committee will do about Stanford. There is very little to evaluate them on.
If UConn wins tonight, I think the Cardinal are #4. If ND wins, #4 is a tossup between Stan & UConn.

 

[alexrgct]

Honestly, I'd rather have a rematch with Baylor or Stanford than UConn-ND 4 regardless of tonight's outcome.

But yes, to Vowel Guy's point, it's highly unlikely all four #1 seeds make it. It could happen, obviously, but statistically speaking, it's less than a 3.5% chance at the outset of a tourney.

 

[speedoo]

It's almost a certainty that Baylor will be the top 1 seed, so unless you feel that Baylor is a much tougher out than ND (and the case can certainly be made for that) I don't see much point in getting all concerned about whether UConn will be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th number one. Especially since history tells us at least one #1 won't get to Denver.

 

[alexrgct]

The biggest thing, more than seed positioning, is this group of girls believing that they can play like the best team in the country heading into the NCAAs. A win tonight is a complete game changer. A loss is surmountable, but it would take a different kind of coaching job from anything Geno's ever done to get them to Denver and ready to make noise upon arrival.

 

[speedoo]

The biggest thing, more than seed positioning, is this group of girls believing that they can play like the best team in the country heading into the NCAAs. A win tonight is a complete game changer. A loss is surmountable, but it would take a different kind of coaching job from anything Geno's ever done to get them to Denver and ready to make noise upon arrival.

I agree 100% with sentences 1 and 2. Not quite sure that Geno would have to do "a different kind of coaching job from anything he's ever done to get them to Denver and ready to make noise upon arrival". DT's # 2 and 3 NC's might be similar situations. Of course he has no DT on this team, but I would argue this team is more talented otherwise.

 

[doggydaddy]

This team is plenty talented enough to get to the final four and make noise.

 

[alexrgct]

I agree 100% with sentences 1 and 2. Not quite sure that Geno would have to do "a different kind of coaching job from anything he's ever done to get them to Denver and ready to make noise upon arrival". DT's # 2 and 3 NC's might be similar situations. Of course he has no DT on this team, but I would argue this team is more talented otherwise.

In 2003, UConn may not have been a juggernaut, but they had the big wins over Tennessee and Duke and a ton of confidence, despite the shocking upset at the hands of Nova. This team had the early W over Stanford and the solid win over Duke on the road, but they've also suffered some significant defeats. Although 2004 had a similar regular season to this one in many respects, that group always knew they had the capability of putting it together and doing it- after all they'd done it the previous year.

And we had Diana, and we don't.

 

[alexrgct]

This team is plenty talented enough to get to the final four and make noise.

Talent, yes. Confidence and belief is where I think a W tonight could be a real game changer.

 

[doggydaddy]

In 2003, UConn may not have been a juggernaut, but they had the big wins over Tennessee and Duke and a ton of confidence, despite the shocking upset at the hands of Nova. This team had the early W over Stanford and the solid win over Duke on the road, but they've also suffered some significant defeats. Although 2004 had a similar regular season to this one in many respects, that group always knew they had the capability of putting it together and doing it- after all they'd done it the previous year.

And we had Diana, and we don't.

This team is very different than that 2003 team. But I really think some are writing this team off too soon. Let's see how they play ND tonight.

 

[doggydaddy]

Talent, yes. Confidence and belief is where I think a W tonight could be a real game changer.

I agree.

This is why I stay optomistic. Confidence and momentum can happen in one game.

 

[easttexastrash]

I don't care which other team Baylor is matched up with. If you can't beat two of the three then you don't deserve a title. If they can't beat two in Denver then they don't deserve a title. When Baylor won the title in 2005 they beat 3 number 1 seeds. If you are the best you have to win them all.

I highly suspect that Baylor and ND will be the two top number ones with Stanford and UCONN interchangeable. Will one win by UCONN over ND in the BE title game trump ND's two regular season wins? I don't think it will, unless UCONN blows ND's doors off.

 

[easttexastrash]

To be honest with you I would love to see a slug fest between Baylor and Notre Dame. I want to see if Griner can handle the bigs of ND still, and if Sims can take Diggins out of the game.

Peters had 6 points and 8 rebounds against Baylor. Griner had 32 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocks. I think that BG has proven that she can handle Peters pretty well. Peters' athleticism is negated against Baylor. Achonwa is a nice complimentary player but is not going to give BG much of a run for her money.

The key to beating Baylor is good guard play. You must shoot a high percentage of your threes to hang with them. Iowa St started out like gangbusters with their three point shooting but that is so hard to maintain for 40 minutes. And once the threes stop falling, game over.

Sims is the best on-ball defender in the nation. Diggins is a tremendous player but Sims basically is a wash with Diggins offensively. They both had very similar stats the last time they faced each other, other than assist to TO ratios and steals. Sims had 6 assists and 2 TOs while Diggins had 3 assists and 7 TOs. Sims also had 6 steals to 1 for Diggins.

 

[easttexastrash]

And to be honest, for anyone to wonder if BG can "handle" another team's post players is about like asking last year if Maya could handle a team's guards. The real question is, can they handle Griner?

 

[Sonny44]

I'd rather see us play Baylor in the semis than a 4th game with ND no matter who wins tonight. I think we beat Baylor easier than ND.
So I prefer Stanford, Baylor or ND in the semis in that order.

 

[easttexastrash]

I'd rather see us play Baylor in the semis than a 4th game with ND no matter who wins tonight. I think we beat Baylor easier than ND.
So I prefer Stanford, Baylor or ND in the semis in that order.

I think that all 4 teams are capable of beating each other. I do think that ND is the most well balanced team of the four and can beat you in so many ways.

 

[Sonny44]

I think that all 4 teams are capable of beating each other. I do think that ND is the most well balanced team of the four and can beat you in so many ways.

I just don't think Stanford would beat us. I know it was a long time ago, but we beat them alraedy. Since then both KML and Kiah have raised their games and we will be confident against them.

 

[easttexastrash]

I just don't think Stanford would beat us. I know it was a long time ago, but we beat them alraedy. Since then both KML and Kiah have raised their games and we will be confident against them.

KML had 25 in that game? Do you think she is going to lift her game much more than that? And Geno has said that he didn't think that Kiah was ready to play against competition like ND so I am wondering if he will have much more faith in her tonight or if Stanford is the opponent. The Ogwumike sisters are a better inside tandem than Peters and Achonwa.

That game was also a home game for UCONN and Nneka was in early foul trouble. There were a lot of things in UCONN's favor on that day.

 

[alexrgct]

I actually thought Kiah put in good work against Stanford. Agree KML can't do much more than she did the first time around.

 

[jsloanjr]

IMO, UCONN has its swagger back and needs to jump on ND early and often......

 

[speedoo]

The Ogwumike sisters are a better inside tandem than Peters and Achonwa.

Yes, but at the other three positions, ND is far superior.

That game was also a home game for UCONN and Nneka was in early foul trouble. There were a lot of things in UCONN's favor on that day.

Other than it being a home game, what other advantages did UConn have? Nneka's foul trouble was probably a function of the matchup with Dolson, and that's still going to be a problem in a rematch.

 

[easttexastrash]

You can't count on Nneka being in foul trouble again. And if she's not the game looks much different. How many of Nneka's fouls were drawn by Dolson? You can't use "probably" to make an argument and how Nneka picked up fouls.

Well, you can, it's just doesn't carry as much weight.