UCONN has 52% chance of winning it all

[Millenial23]

UConn Is Facing Its Toughest Tournament In Years

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think the probability was 75% last year. I don't recall what it was the year before. It's still phenomenal that we are favored over the rest of the field--combined. The reduced probability is consistent with what we see in terms of lower MOV and smaller margin for error.

 

[eebmg]

I think the probability was 75% last year. I don't recall what it was the year before. It's still phenomenal that we are favored over the rest of the field--combined. The reduced probability is consistent with what we see in terms of lower MOV and smaller margin for error.

I saw somewhere where they posted the incremental % probabilities to go to the next level. If I am not mistaken,
it was 99% to round of 32 (Against Albany) and 98% to round of 16 (Against Syracuse). I know we are at home and Syracuse with their somewhat chaotic approach to the game does not match up well with us (imho) but really, Syracuse is being
lumped with Albany as the same level of non threat. They did finish ranked #21 and were really screwed by the committee.

I really like and respect their players (especially Stewie teammate and friend Britteny Sykes and her brutal health issues) who always play with a lot of passion. They deserved better.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I think the probability was 75% last year. I don't recall what it was the year before. It's still phenomenal that we are favored over the rest of the field--combined. The reduced probability is consistent with what we see in terms of lower MOV and smaller margin for error.

The probability will rise if we advance, but so will it for other teams too. Last year's championship game probability was in the 90s.

 

[eebmg]

The probability will rise if we advance, but so will it for other teams too. Last year's championship game probability was in the 90s.

The probabilities of the favorites will probably stay locked in as long as the bracket evolves as expected with the favorites winning and no major upsets. These initial probabilities take into account the natural progression of the draw. Last year jumped because the FF was filled with lower seeds that upset our biggest threats (ND for example)

 

[OldAlum]

52% doesn't sound great. Then you realize that it is about 30 points better than the next highest probability.

 

[CTtransplant]

Interesting that they have S. Florida winning probability at 51% against Missouri, even though Missouri is the 6 seed and S. Florida is the 11 seed.

 

[UConnFranklin]

52% doesn't sound great. Then you realize that it is about 30 points better than the next highest probability.

Yes it does sound pretty good. If UConn makes it to the Final Four I will go. But been in a quandary on whether to make my reservations and tickets purchases ahead of time at a less expensive price or actually waiting till they make it to the Final Four and make my reservations at a more expensive price tag. I'm thinking 52% is not enough of a guarantee. I don't want to get to Dallas and not have UConn there. In past years I've purchased early. This year I'm playing it conservative.
.

 

[bags27]

This is good, and is where we need to swing to emotionally. Of course, a NC this year would top off one of the unquestioned greatest years in WCBB--maybe in all college sports, given both the burden of carrying forward the traditions of the past 4 years, the weight of the winning streak, and the lower expectations for this team.

But in the event of a loss, we will need to pivot emotionally and focus solely on celebrating these kids, their coaches and program, and all those astonishing accomplishments. A loss cannot diminish their absolutely heroic achievements.

 

[DefenseBB]

But in the event of a loss....

As Spock says, "Your logic does not compute"

 

[bags27]

Of course, this is all from 538, which has morphed from quasi-pseudo-scientific statistics to completely pseudo-scientific statistics and basically click-bait. (Still waiting for the heavily predicted Clinton Inauguration)

 

[Zorro]

Here is the whole 538 shootin match, credit it how you will.
2017 March Madness Predictions

 

[Ozimoto]

This is good, and is where we need to swing to emotionally. Of course, a NC this year would top off one of the unquestioned greatest years in WCBB--maybe in all college sports, given both the burden of carrying forward the traditions of the past 4 years, the weight of the winning streak, and the lower expectations for this team.

But in the event of a loss, we will need to pivot emotionally and focus solely on celebrating these kids, their coaches and program, and all those astonishing accomplishments. A loss cannot diminish their absolutely heroic achievements.

As much as none of us want this season to end short of the National Championship, all of them, with the exceptions of Tierney and Saniya, will have another shot next year. It would be much worse if they come up short in Kia and Gabby's senior year. Remember a few short months ago, not many people thought the team would be in this position.

 

[Millenial23]

I think the probability was 75% last year. I don't recall what it was the year before. It's still phenomenal that we are favored over the rest of the field--combined. The reduced probability is consistent with what we see in terms of lower MOV and smaller margin for error.

Yes, the article said we had a 70% chance last year and a 74% chance the year before. So well down this year. But still good odds

 

[Zorro]

Just checked last year's prediction. He had last year's superteam at only 70%, so you can regard, I think, this year's prediction as also on the conservative side.

 

[noirwestern]

As much as none of us want this season to end short of the National Championship, all of them, with the exceptions of Tierney and Saniya, will have another shot next year. It would be much worse if they come up short in Kia and Gabby's senior year. Remember a few short months ago, not many people thought the team would be in this position.

Not seeing how this would be, "much worse" considering no one has worked harder for less visible reward than Tierney has and everyone is painfully aware of the trials of Saniya to get where she is. No, I think these two are about as deserving as anyone.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Of course, this is all from 538, which has morphed from quasi-pseudo-scientific statistics to completely pseudo-scientific statistics and basically click-bait. (Still waiting for the heavily predicted Clinton Inauguration)

Didn't 538 have it as a Clinton win by 2-3%? That's basically what her margin of victory was in the popular vote. I guess predicting the screwy electoral thing is a bit harder because you would have to predict 50 different presidential elections to come up with the national champ.

 

[TDiNozzo]

I read somewhere that they gave the men's favorite a 15% chance to win....

found it..

FiveThirtyEight projects UConn is facing "its toughest tournament in years"its projected probability of winning the whole thing is 52 percent. (On the men's side, the overall favorite, Villanova, is projected to have a 15 percent chance of winning the title.) And the stat nerd site is projecting that UAlbany's chances of beating UConn in the first round are less than 1 percent.

 

[msf22b]

But in the event of a loss, we will need to pivot emotionally and focus solely on celebrating these kids, their coaches and program, and all those astonishing accomplishments. A loss cannot diminish their absolutely heroic achievements.

I absolutely concur with Bags' view that regardless of the outcome of this championship run, we should celebrate this unusual, unanticipated, mind-blowing triumph of a season.

The bracketology gods have placed an obstacle course in front of us that would make Tamino blanche and Sarastro gloat; seemingly a reprise of our out of conference test, so successfully negotiated.

We start off with a single gimme and then its all serious stuff; Syracuse, UCLA, pick-em Duke? Maryland? West Virginia (my choice)? and then (if the seeds hold) two of our most familiar rivals.

And yet, I sense that the team has it; that they will prevail. It's not about logic, which has been pulled asunder, since November...It's about will.

This group has learned to will itself to victory...to internalize whatever it takes to prevail.

Geno frets about the defense...sure, no block monster to dispel penetration but the switching (at its best) is the most artistic, efficient and intricate I've ever seen...reminds me of the choreography of some of my favs: Twyla Tharpe's Push come to Shove, Mark Morris' L'allegro.

And this newfangled, offense,predicated on a point forward, an elusive, slithering undersized, 4/5 , a
good sized 2/3 with range who is just discovering that there is more to the game than hoisting 3's...Combine that with a retread guard, never much counted on for anything and one real vet.....
This is the starting five that's tyrannized the woman's game all season?

Well, they did and I reckon they will.
The one thing they just haven't quite figured out is how to lose.

 

[bags27]

Yes, it's a tough schedule. But:

• first 2 games are at home; next 2 games might as well be at home. And, given the fact that the starters need to play 30+ minutes, that they play 2 game clusters, with a day off between games, and then 5 days off between those clusters, the essential structure of the tournament is favorable for UConn.
• no team or set of coaches has this kind of tournament experience.
• Running the gauntlet/gantlet is not necessarily a disadvantage. It means staying in the toughest mind set, not letting down anytime for anyone. Less chance of getting upset with that mentality.

 

[Jimbo]

Yes, the article said we had a 70% chance last year and a 74% chance the year before. So well down this year. But still good odds

Just in case anybody wants to compare or play around with 538's projections from those seasons, here are the links (538 didn't have this feature for the women's tournament until 2015):
2016 March Madness Predictions
2015 March Madness Predictions

I think the 52% probability determination is not so much a slight against UConn this year as it is a reflection that UConn's 2015 and 2016 teams were ridiculously good. A 70+% probability figure is just completely insane, but those two teams probably justified it.