UConn and 3 point baskets...

[DavidinNaples]

No transfers this week and the news is slow. So, here is my analysis on UConn and recent 3 point shooting.

Two weeks ago, UConn graduated the 2nd most prolific 3 point shooter in team history, Katie Lou Samuelson. Her 382 made threes and 41.5% accuracy will be sorely missed. Does this mean a dramatic change in either the number of threes taken or the rate at which they hopefully go in? Maybe... but first consider the history of three-point shots over the last seven seasons.

2018-19 833 threes tried, 36.4% made
2017-18 755 threes tried, 40.0% made
2016-17 746 threes tried, 40.5% made
2015-16 775 threes tried, 38.1% made
2014-15 813 threes tried, 40.6% made
2013-14 805 threes tried, 36.6% made
2012-13 859 threes tried, 37.8% made

Last season had the 2nd most threes tried and the worst % made (by a fraction) of the last seven years. Part of the drop in made threes was Katie Lou falling from a career 42.9% in her first 3 seasons to last year's 37.6%. Still, the rest of the team took 596 threes and made only 35.9%. Some of that low total comes from Napheesa's 53 attempts and 28.3% success rate. She excelled at so many things but making three-point baskets last year was not one of them.

The returning three starters, Crystal, Christyn, and Megan shot 179-487 from three for a combined total % of 36.7%. Megan was tops at almost 40%. Interestingly, Molly and Kyla went 20-43 or 48.8% from outside the arc. Improvement from Crystal, Christyn, and Megan, along with more shots for Molly and Kyla might move the team % total closer to 40% range.

Also of interest, all four of the new players for next season (Griffin, Makurat, Adebayo, and Westbrook) shoot threes with a fair degree of accuracy. The math is simple, but the execution will be harder. If those four can only duplicate Lou's rate of 37.6%, Molly and Kyla stay hot and the three returning starters improve by 2-3%, UConn could improve last seasons three-point totals.

Go Huskies..!!

 

[Triad]

View attachment 43262

No transfers this week and the news is slow. Here is so analysis on UConn and recent 3 point shooting.

Two weeks ago, UConn graduated the 2nd most prolific 3 point shooter in team history, Katie Lou Samuelson. Her 382 made threes and 41.5% accuracy will be sorely missed. Does this mean a dramatic change in either the number of threes taken or the rate at which they hopefully go in? Maybe... but first consider the history of three-point shots over the last seven seasons.

2018-19 833 threes tried, 36.4% made
2017-18 755 threes tried, 40.0% made
2016-17 746 threes tried, 40.5% made
2015-16 775 threes tried, 38.1% made
2014-15 813 threes tried, 40.6% made
2013-14 805 threes tried, 36.6% made
2012-13 859 threes tried, 37.8% made

Last season had the 2nd most threes tried and the worst % made (by a fraction) of the last seven years. Part of the drop in made threes was Katie Lou falling from a career 42.9% in her first 3 seasons to last year's 37.6%. Still, the rest of the team took 596 threes and made only 35.9%. Some of that low total comes from Napheesa's 53 attempts and 28.3% success rate. She excelled at so many things but making three-point baskets last year was not one of them.

The returning three starters, Crystal, Christyn, and Megan shot 179-487 from three for a combined total % of 36.7%. Megan was tops at almost 40%. Interestingly, Molly and Kyla went 20-43 or 48.8% from outside the arc. Improvement from Crystal, Christyn, and Megan, along with more shots for Molly and Kyla might move the team % total closer to 40% range.

Also of interest, all four of the new players for next season (Griffin, Makurat, Adebayo, and Westbrook) shoot threes with a fair degree of accuracy. The math is simple, but the execution will be harder. If those four can only duplicate Lou's rate of 37.6%, Molly and Kyla stay hot and the three returning starters improve by 2-3%, UConn could improve last seasons three-point totals.
A
Go Huskies..!!

As always David, NICE, NICE.

One question maybe 3. If Molly and Irwin are at the ahem, 48 percentage with 3's. Why is it when Geno needed a three he didn't go to them? Hmmm? One would think the best 3 point shooters would be in games when KLS, or Walker couldn't hit the outhouse??? But they were not? It obviously is some sort of bias, maybe against top 3 point shooters? If that be the case, what does that say about those new guys who shoot it well? Will they be getting less pt? \
David, as you see analysis is my true calling..

 

[warbler1055]

"Molly and Kyla went 20-43 or 48.8% from outside the arc " So if Molly and Kyla shoot more then we will have a different offense? But Molly is not too keen about shooting, although she is improving. Kyla and Molly needed more minutes? Good analysis.

 

[stamfordhusky]

One question maybe 3. If Molly and Irwin are at the ahem, 48 percentage with 3's. Why is it when Geno needed a three he didn't go to them? Hmmm? One would think the best 3 point shooters would be in games when KLS, or Walker couldn't hit the outhouse??? But they were not? It obviously is some sort of bias, maybe against top 3 point shooters? If that be the case, what does that say about those new guys who shoot it well? Will they be getting less pt? \

Two things to consider:

1. The sample size for Bent and Irwin is very small. The previous year the two combined to go 29% on threes. Did they suddenly get a lot better, or is most of the difference simply randomness?

2. Many of the threes attempted by Bent and Irwin were late in the game, either against second-stringers or tired, dejected starters. They weren't facing the same defensive pressure that the starters were seeing.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nice work, as always, David!

Two additional thoughts:

1. I believe we saw some stats that suggest Makurat may not yet be a strong 3-point shooter. Can anyone find them? I agree that Westbrook and Adebayo are respectable shooters from the arc, about 36-38% last season.

2. "No transfers this week ..." To paraphrase Curly in 'City Slickers,' "Week ain't over yet!"

 

[soxfan23]

Nice work, as always, David!

Two additional thoughts:

1. I believe we saw some stats that suggest Makurat may not yet be a strong 3-point shooter. Can anyone find them? I agree that Westbrook and Adebayo are respectable shooters from the arc, about 36-38% last season.

2. "No transfers this week ..." To paraphrase Curly in 'City Slickers,' "Week ain't over yet!"

Makurat shot 29.9% (44-147)from 3pt range.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Makurat shot 29.9% (44-147)from 3pt range.

Hopefully she can get to 35%. Thanks!

 

[UConnCat]

I’ve said before that I think Ania will shoot a better % at UConn than she shot on her pro team. The line is closer (unless it’s changed) and she’ll get better, more open shots. I think she’ll be like Kia Nurse who consistently shot a higher % at UConn than she did in international play.

 

[Dokey]

I thought Irwin passed up too many open threes.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I’ve said before that I think Ania will shoot a better % at UConn than she shot on her pro team. The line is closer (unless it’s changed) and she’ll get better, more open shots. I think she’ll be like Kia Nurse who consistently shot a higher % at UConn than she did in international play.

I doubt Ania will see many defenders like Tiffany Hayes in the collegiate ranks.

 

[JellyBean]

Nice work on the research. Great question. If we have shooters with a nice shooting stroke like KML, I would hope that the percentages an amount of 3 balls being shot goes up. A lot depends on what the players can and can not do in terms of what offensive flow the team is going with next year. If that BBall IQ is there from summer ball and pre-season stuff, I don't see why we couldn't increase in both areas.

 

[Zinethar]

Just remember why the shots behind the arc are favored. A 40% 3 ball average is equivalent point wise to a 60% from anywhere else. And as a small bonus it is even possible to get a 4 point play.

It took a few years for the world to appreciate that fact.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Just remember why the shots behind the arc are favored. A 40% 3 ball average is equivalent point wise to a 60% from anywhere else. And as a small bonus it is even possible to get a 4 point play.

It took a few years for the world to appreciate that fact.

I think that Golden State and the Splash Brothers took things to a new level, and others have followed, both in the NBA and at other levels. However, it really started with Houston in the 2 years that they won the NBA Championship (while Michael Jordan was playing baseball). Houston's offense was largely Hakeem Olajuwon with his array of moves inside and everyone else spotting up at the arc. The shooters included Robert Horry, Kenny Smith, and Sam Cassels. The Princeton offense was largely layups or 3-pointers.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Just remember why the shots behind the arc are favored. A 40% 3 ball average is equivalent point wise to a 60% from anywhere else.

Not quite. Three point shots don't draw nearly as many fouls as two-point shots, particularly drives and post moves. Many 50% two-point shooters have a true shooting percentage of 55% or higher due to the fouls drawn. Not only does the two-point shooter get to the line more, but it also may put the opponents in foul trouble and get your team into the bonus.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Two things to consider:

1. The sample size for Bent and Irwin is very small. The previous year the two combined to go 29% on threes. Did they suddenly get a lot better, or is most of the difference simply randomness?

2. Many of the threes attempted by Bent and Irwin were late in the game, either against second-stringers or tired, dejected starters. They weren't facing the same defensive pressure that the starters were seeing.

My point. MY posting was obviously tongue in cheek. There is more to WBB than sinking a single 3 sometimes, even with higher percentages.
Yet @DavidinNaples as always makes excellent use of STATS.
I'm waiting for @DavidinNaples to do a stat on Griffin and Ania M. I'm thinking big time stats. If all we read is half true: The jostling for Starting will begin early this summer. Isn't terrible to have so many top players and one that can jump like GABBY???

 

[BroadwayVa]

I doubt Ania will see many defenders like Tiffany Hayes in the collegiate ranks.

Well said. I think Ania will be a better offensive and possible a defensive player than Kia. College should not be difficult for Ania, but learning the Geno system and expectations will wear a bit on her mind and body.

 

[Triad]

Hopefully she can get to 35%. Thanks!

AS a Pro, she'll find other ways of scoring. 3 is only one way and certainly not the only way. You too can bet your old zoot suit (worth big bucks now) that she will increase her 3 ball shooting by Nov. Th. e certainty of the situation is she is not reluctant or fearful of playing at the Pro level, why then would Div 1 frighten her. Molly and Irwin never flowed within the Uconn offense and often within the D. Their potential (for both) was high as they entered Uconn . A coaches daughter and a kid with an IQ around Mar's who could score in HS. POTENTIAL. The whole DavdinNaples posting by me --was tongue in the left ear. But nice fair rebuttal. Thanks.

 

[Triad]

I doubt Ania will see many defenders like Tiffany Hayes in the collegiate ranks.

There won't be many Div One teams (or Games) where she'll see the overall level of play she was accustomed to in her Euro Pro games.