UConn - a look inside the numbers

[EASTFLA]

First off let me say this. One would expect, and rightfully so, that the numbers in wins should be better than the numbers in losses, that's pretty much a given. What shouldn't be the case is the wide gap we have in wins and losses. Thought this was at least worth sharing, it is kind of interesting:

I took a look at what UConn players look like in our 7 losses. I did not include Bouknight because he has only been part of 3 losses, but I did look at these other 6 players to see if there was a difference in their stats in the 3 losses with Bouknight vs the 4 losses without him, and there was no statistically significant difference. This is really eye opening:



FG/FGA %age Threes REB ASST STEALS TO



COLE 24-76 .316 11-33 .333 2.1 3.4 0.9 2.4

MARTIN 21-54 .388 5-19 .263 7.6 0.6 1.4 1.4

WHALEY 19-45 .422 3-6 .500 5.4 1.2 0.9 1.0

POLLEY 8-37 .216 5-29 .172 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0

SANOGO 32-56 .571 0-0 --- 4.2 0.7 0.6 1.0

GAFFNEY 13-40 .325 5-21 .238 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.0

_____________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL 117-308 .380 29-108 .269 22.2 7.6 4.8 6.8

IN WINS 300-637 .471 83-204 .407 25.3 9.9 4.2 7.5



I did not include Jackson, or Carlton as their numbers are so small and didn't vary either way. The end takes here is obviously shooting. We stink in losses and thrive in wins. The 2 things that stand out for me are Polley and Sanogo. Sanogo has dominated in losses converting 57% of his shots. I have said it all season, if this kid gets 15 shots a game it opens up the outside, and he is our most efficient scorer, period, not even close. Polley has had a really rough season, especially in our losses where he shoots 21% and 17% from 3. That has really been a killer as he gets 20+ minutes a game and if he is not hitting shots if you look at rebounds and assists there is not much there. I don't like pinning things good or bad on one kid, but of all our stats offensively, his jump off the page. I heard during the broadcast of our game vs Creighton that when he scores 8 points or more we are 10-0. Looking at the numbers here I believe it. I hope Polley catches fire in the NCAA Tournament, everything would be quickly forgotten if he does. I'm pulling for him, and everyone else. Go Huskies!

 

[jibsey]

Polley has been a big disappointment. He alone can put games away with key shots. He looks so pure at times, it's unexplainable.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Polley has been a big disappointment. He alone can put games away with key shots. He looks so pure at times, it's unexplainable.

He isn’t all that good. He can’t make shots on the move or off his dribble. He’s very easy to defend. He adds very little when not knocking down shots.

 

[upstater]

He isn’t all that good. He can’t make shots on the move or off his dribble. He’s very easy to defend. He adds very little when not knocking down shots.

He has actually been much better on defense and rebounds lately. Playing much tougher. It's why he's seeing more time on the floor.

I do wish he would drive more. He can do it.

 

[EASTFLA]

I certainly don't like to pick on one player, it's still a team. The numbers pick on him, so here is his chance to erase all of it! I hope he does, and wish him well!

 

[JakeTheDog]

He has actually been much better on defense and rebounds lately. Playing much tougher. It's why he's seeing more time on the floor.

I do wish he would drive more. He can do it.

His drives always end in that weird scoop shot which is almost always blocked or highly contested. Wish he would go up strong, not sure it’s in his skill set though.

 

[upstater]

His drives always end in that weird scoop shot which is almost always blocked or highly contested. Wish he would go up strong, not sure it’s in his skill set though.

He did go up strong in the Creighton game. Got a foul.

 

[HuskyHawk]

He has actually been much better on defense and rebounds lately. Playing much tougher. It's why he's seeing more time on the floor.

I do wish he would drive more. He can do it.

Driving more is noted. Defense is still terrible and rebounding just shy of terrible.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Appreciate the work! Who woulda thunk that when we don't put the ball in the basket at an acceptable frequency that we're more likely to lose?

Some additional thoughts:

1- Once Sanogo gets better at passing out to open players when he gets doubled/tripled, that's when I'll agree with what you mentioned about him. Too many times the ball dies with him in the paint once it gets there. Granted, he makes some tough shots and has great footwork, but he needs to get better at kickouts to open shooters. It'll happen. He's still just a freshman.

2- I never recalled Polley being so game-to-game streaky from 3 in previous years as he seems to be this year. I looked at the 2 previous years with Hurley as coach:

2019-20: 20/50 (40%) in Wins, 10/24 (41.7%) in losses
2018-19: 28/62 (45.1%) in Wins, 24/75 (32%) in losses

So, I guess he has the potential to have both consistent and inconsistent seasons!

3- I'd love to see defensive metrics in Wins/Losses too. We've been able to stay in most games...even when shooting horribly...so I'd guess our defense stats may be more consistent overall regardless of W-L

 

[Giddyup5]

First off let me say this. One would expect, and rightfully so, that the numbers in wins should be better than the numbers in losses, that's pretty much a given. What shouldn't be the case is the wide gap we have in wins and losses. Thought this was at least worth sharing, it is kind of interesting:

I took a look at what UConn players look like in our 7 losses. I did not include Bouknight because he has only been part of 3 losses, but I did look at these other 6 players to see if there was a difference in their stats in the 3 losses with Bouknight vs the 4 losses without him, and there was no statistically significant difference. This is really eye opening:



FG/FGA %age Threes REB ASST STEALS TO



COLE 24-76 .316 11-33 .333 2.1 3.4 0.9 2.4

MARTIN 21-54 .388 5-19 .263 7.6 0.6 1.4 1.4

WHALEY 19-45 .422 3-6 .500 5.4 1.2 0.9 1.0

POLLEY 8-37 .216 5-29 .172 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0

SANOGO 32-56 .571 0-0 --- 4.2 0.7 0.6 1.0

GAFFNEY 13-40 .325 5-21 .238 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.0

_____________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL 117-308 .380 29-108 .269 22.2 7.6 4.8 6.8

IN WINS 300-637 .471 83-204 .407 25.3 9.9 4.2 7.5



I did not include Jackson, or Carlton as their numbers are so small and didn't vary either way. The end takes here is obviously shooting. We stink in losses and thrive in wins. The 2 things that stand out for me are Polley and Sanogo. Sanogo has dominated in losses converting 57% of his shots. I have said it all season, if this kid gets 15 shots a game it opens up the outside, and he is our most efficient scorer, period, not even close. Polley has had a really rough season, especially in our losses where he shoots 21% and 17% from 3. That has really been a killer as he gets 20+ minutes a game and if he is not hitting shots if you look at rebounds and assists there is not much there. I don't like pinning things good or bad on one kid, but of all our stats offensively, his jump off the page. I heard during the broadcast of our game vs Creighton that when he scores 8 points or more we are 10-0. Looking at the numbers here I believe it. I hope Polley catches fire in the NCAA Tournament, everything would be quickly forgotten if he does. I'm pulling for him, and everyone else. Go Huskies!

Appreciate the work you put in.

I think Polley's numbers also coincide with our pace of play. If we defensive rebound and run, it usually opens up at least 3-4 transition 3's or secondary break looks. I think he is much better at those vs curling around screens in the half court.

So i agree with your comments, but most importantly I think its imperative that we defensive rebound and run run run.

 

[auror]

3- I'd love to see defensive metrics in Wins/Losses too. We've been able to stay in most games...even when shooting horribly...so I'd guess our defense stats may be more consistent overall regardless of W-L

There are some pretty charts here that you can see the dots for wins and losses and make some approximations.

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[NYtoCT]

His drives always end in that weird scoop shot which is almost always blocked or highly contested. Wish he would go up strong, not sure it’s in his skill set though.

You’re not sure after four years? It’s pretty clear it’s not in his skill set.

 

[EASTFLA]

He is a better shooter than what he has shown this year. I think it is in his head now. If he can go off in game 1 and we advance he could become the shot maker we need.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Let's just hope we get Duncan Polley for the tournament and not more of Tyler Harrelson...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

More Carlton.

 

[bendm]

we just arent a good 3 pt shooting team... hurley has 10 of his own players on the roster now and only cole qualifies as decent 3 point shooter at 38% for the year. next best would be gaffney at 35%. everyone else is either below 33% or a big...idk if counting on polley to be our only sniper was a good idea but he's the best we got for now. we might be almost impossible to beat when our 3s are falling but that rarely happens.

 

[auror]

More Carlton.

I think this is absolutely a more Carlton game.

They play 2 6'6" wings at the 3/4 and are quite big and athletic across the guards and wings. They'll give our guards trouble.

But we can punish them on the o-boards by playing a bigger 4. One of the wings, Hart, is not a big part of their offense. He's more of a mediocre spot up shooter, and we can 100% "hide" one of the bigs on him on defense. This is not a situation where they have a Jefferson or Samuels who hit 38+% from 3.

Their big Scott likes to pick and pop, so having a 2nd big for rim protection will be useful.

 

[Stinger92860]

More Carlton.

more Sanogo