UConn -16.5 v. UMass - Lowell

[Storrs South]

ESPN has a predicted point differential of 15.8 and gives UConn a 89.3% chance of winning

UML is currently 4-4, #294 on KenPom. This is a team that lost to Central Connecticut by 12. Best win of the year of UML Is Wagner (KenPom #260). In other words, this needs to be another game where UConn absolutely blows the opponent out. This needs to be another complete effort like we saw v. UNH where little resistance is met.

This is going to be a high scoring game as it pairs UConn (19th in PPG) v. UML (47th in PPG). The O/U of 160.5 reflects this. Both teams shoot nearly identical from 3 (35.2% v. 35.3%). UML also happens to be 326th in the country in points scored on them per game (84.7).

This is going to be a fast pace game. Hurley has done a great job instructing bigs to make the outlet pass right after a rebound allowing guards to go make plays against defenders on their heels. KenPom has UConn's adjusted tempo as 82nd fasted in the country; UML is at 19th fasted in the country. It is going to be a track meet tomorrow.

We know that UConn has struggled with turnovers this season (13.8/game, 180th in the country in turnovers a game). UML actively tries to give the ball away with an average of 16.4 turnovers a game good for 319th in the country.

We know that UConn has struggled with foul trouble this season (21.7/game, 294th in the country). UML somehow finds a way to be worse in this area with 22/game, 303rd in the country.

Given the fast pace nature of this game, UConn can get away with fouls a little more than usual should a defender beat them on fast break since UML is bad from the foul line: 68.6% good for 194th in the country. This is something UConn needs to improve going forward currently at 69.4% or 168th in the country.

No prediction, just want to see an absolute blowout on the order of the UNH game.

 

[StepbackCity]

Will this be the buy game with the Jumpman windmill? Any takers?

 

[dannyHAM]

Blowout would be great for us heading into Zona! Need to keep putting these teams away by 20+

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Hammer the over!!! We will win 99-61.

 

[tykurez]

I’m most excited to see Sid in some game action

 

[CTBasketball]

The over is looking nice right about now. Last time I touched a UConn game was vs. Iowa so I will happily stay away.

 

[kansashusky]

a blowout would give lots of minutes to Sid so he can mesh. I would let him play through all mistakes.

 

[UconnU]

Over and a Uconn cover. The only chance low majors have against us is to limit our number of possessions. The greater number of possessions the higher likelyhood of a Uconn win(blow out). We have a boatload of players who can create high % shots for themselves. Playing up tempo plays into our favor. We are now a run and gun offensive team, we are the Oklahoma of college basketball. If you want to beat us you better have a run game and a competent defense.

 

[nomar]

177-74

 

[awfuldan]

If I don’t see a Jump Man dunk in this game, I will be very disappointed.

 

[Huskybass]

UConn covers and Kwintin dunks.

Confirmed.

 

[Rico444]

I want to see Sid get some minutes and knock off some rust. Really looking forward to seeing him in action for the first time.

 

[Kenny11]

If I don’t see a Jump Man dunk in this game, I will be very disappointed.

He has been getting in the game late when we aren't looking to run and without good passers on the floor. Also the other teams are somehow aware of him and body him when he crashes or rolls...I doubt he is on the scouting report but he is probably all over their instagram.