UCF -1 | The Boneyard

UCF -1

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I'm a bit surprised by this line. They're about 75 slots ahead of us on KenPom (they're also #4 in adjusted defense while we're 203rd in offense).

I know they're missing a key player, but he's been out for a while now and it hasn't stopped them from playing some pretty solid ball. They've won eight of nine, the lone loss being a tight game with SMU on the road.

I expected it to be at least UCF -4. Then again, I was also surprised by the line against ECU. Vegas seems to respect us more than the 148th best team in the country, for whatever that's worth.
 
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If fall has progressed at all he should have a big game. I mean 7’6 vs 6’9 at best is a pretty big mismatch.
 

whaler11

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Kenpom prediction is 61-59 bad guys.
 

Hankster

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We win this and on the road again for two. Watched Tulane last night against Memphis. Honestly, I was not impressed with Tulane at all. Memphis looked okay. Tulane
has two guys, one black guy with a beard and a white guy with a semi beard that look in their 30's. Not looking past our game tonight, but wondering if we oil the machine, get the bugs out, we may not be in bad shape. Tulane and Memphis on the road.

The way JA and CV have the most acrobatic layups I have seen in years, they may fool Tacko. He is looking to block pull up jumpers and is slow to react to a dump off underneath. He also sits a lot.
 
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Continue the winning streak boys...it's time to put it together ... We are due for a 15 point win. Think Tacko get's exposed...he's struggles in space but nasty around the rim
 

The Funster

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This is a game where perimeter pressure will be at a premium. We have to be in their faces and deny entry passes to Fall. When he gets the ball down low we have to double and get the ball out of his hands. We have to try to make him move on defense and commit a couple of silly fouls. We can win this game.
 

8893

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UConn Men Will Have Hands Full Against Tacko Fall, UCF
“When you think about UConn, you think about one of the storied programs in this country,” Dawkins said. “Great coaching, Kevin Ollie has done an amazing job with his group. You know it’s going to be a great environment and they’re going to compete, because of the personnel and talent they have. That’s what you expect whenever you’re going to face a UConn team.”

Everything You Need To Know About UCF at UConn

Back under the dome: The Huskies haven’t played on campus since Dec. 14 against Coppin State. UConn has not drawn well at Gampel, and with students not on campus, it could be a small, quiet crowd. UConn will look to shake off its doldrums and get its crowd back.
 

Purple Stein

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Kenpom prediction is 61-59 bad guys.

Read this as you will. Average is based on 133 sims.

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 8.52.08 AM.png
 

HuskyHawk

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I'm a bit surprised by this line. They're about 75 slots ahead of us on KenPom (they're also #4 in adjusted defense while we're 203rd in offense).

I know they're missing a key player, but he's been out for a while now and it hasn't stopped them from playing some pretty solid ball. They've won eight of nine, the lone loss being a tight game with SMU on the road.

I expected it to be at least UCF -4. Then again, I was also surprised by the line against ECU. Vegas seems to respect us more than the 148th best team in the country, for whatever that's worth.

I think it's a little difficult to pick UCF to beat UConn in Gampel. Just as a psychological matter. It feels very wrong. UConn is a very strange team. If we put together performances like against MSU, WSU or Arizona, we'd definitely beat UCF. But then we also have those Arkansas, Columbia, Auburn, ECU performances.
 
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I keep coming back for more! Regardless of what happens I think the winning team will win by 7 to 9 points and, at times, keep the game around the 10 to 12 point lead. If Uconn comes out flat like they did vs Columbia, they lose this 65-56 or something like that. If they play the way they did vs Zona or WSU in the first 30 minutes of either game, they win this pulling away, 66-58. Really depends.
 
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Also leaning a win. Vegas is baiting people into taking UCF it would appear
 
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If we put together performances like against MSU, WSU or Arizona, we'd definitely beat UCF. But then we also have those Arkansas, Columbia, Auburn, ECU performances.

We played essentially to predictions in even those "good performance" games (lost by 20 to MSU, -8 predicted, 15 to Arizona, -14 predicted, and 10 to Wichita, -9 predicted), except the MSU game. We've played under predictions in most games (4-8 against the spread). And we're predicted to lose by 2 to UCF, so even playing at some of our "best" relative to our normal performance would make us in my mind not the favorite in the game.

Of course, teams aren't static, so I'm hopeful we play even better than those prior good performances and win going away.
 
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Sagarin has us as a 1 point underdog. That is basically a tossup. A close game, win or lose, is bad because it means we are still treading water from a bad place with no progress. A solid win would be a step in the right direction. A solid loss is bad...very bad.
 

HuskyHawk

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We played essentially to predictions in even those "good performance" games (lost by 20 to MSU, -8 predicted, 15 to Arizona, -14 predicted, and 10 to Wichita, -9 predicted), except the MSU game. We've played under predictions in most games (4-8 against the spread). And we're predicted to lose by 2 to UCF, so even playing at some of our "best" relative to our normal performance would make us in my mind not the favorite in the game.

Of course, teams aren't static, so I'm hopeful we play even better than those prior good performances and win going away.

I don't think the final scores of those games reflect how the team played as a whole. It was even with MSU in the first half. Against WSU we had a lead with a few minutes left. Against Arizona we were also closer than the final score suggests. It's true we don't know how to close out games, or we would have won in Tulsa as well.
 
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I don't think the final scores of those games reflect how the team played as a whole. It was even with MSU in the first half. Against WSU we had a lead with a few minutes left. Against Arizona we were also closer than the final score suggests. It's true we don't know how to close out games, or we would have won in Tulsa as well.
This team has two mental issues. First, they lack discipline, which shows up as slow starts against bad teams. They usually win those games by finally waking up and the talent mismatch is big enough to avoid impact from issue #2. The second issue is a lack of conditioning. They don't close out games against good teams because they are gassed. These are coaching issues, whether bad recruiting choices or bad leadership.

What the strong start in games like MSU and WSU shows is that the talent is there. To say we are simply young or not good enough is an excuse. It is a bad excuse this year and it was a ridiculous excuse last year. Yeah, we lost Gilbert and Larrier to injuries but Gilbert was only a freshman anyway. And we still had a McD AA on the team in Purvis! And he was a senior! As was Facey, who was also pretty highly rated as a recruit, as I recall. And we had Brimah as a senior who, while not a highly rated recruit, was not a bad recruit and looked to have a ton of potential as a freshman. And we had Adams, who was a borderline 4/5 star recruit in his sophomore season. Even with the injuries, we had plenty of talent and plenty of experience. Last year was a total disaster, even accounting for the injuries. And while we graduated three key seniors, opening up plenty of playing time, we still had three keys players QUIT on Ollie. This "reset" was not a calculated effort by Ollie. It happened to him, because of him. As such, any lack of talent or experience we have now is his fault and there is ZERO reason to believe it won't keep happening. In fact, the Cobb situation seems to be headed in the direction of showing that this was not a one season deal. You can't keep blaming the kids and the comparisons to Calhoun are comical because he never had the program collapse because of an Antonio Kellogg. A bad player choice might have lead to an isolated bad season but I don't recall us ever having two horrific seasons in a row because a bad season was followed by "bad playerS" leaving which was followed by another bad season. The issue we have here is beyond just a bad recruiting choice. It is systemic.
 
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Read this as you will. Average is based on 133 sims.

View attachment 27654

Based on that sim data, this game is not going to be close (in the simulators mind). Less than a 5pt game only 23% of the time.

Bet the house on the good guys to win big!

Also, Kwintin will posterize Tacko off of a pick & roll play.

Take it all to the bank!!!

It's January 2018. Season of optimism!
 
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I don't think the final scores of those games reflect how the team played as a whole. It was even with MSU in the first half. Against WSU we had a lead with a few minutes left. Against Arizona we were also closer than the final score suggests. It's true we don't know how to close out games, or we would have won in Tulsa as well.

The final score represents exactly how the team played as a whole. Games are 40 minutes long. Anyone can play with anyone for a few minutes; variance decreases with time (larger sample of possessions). Both MSU and Arizona had their best players in foul trouble in 1st half and once they played full 2nd halves we got smoked. We stymied Wichita in the first half and forced turnovers, then they got under control and destroyed us on both ends (our last lead was with 13 minutes left and we led for 13 seconds total in 2nd half). You can argue that a 40 minute game is an arbitrary endpoint, but it's the only one that matters and the fact that we trended in the wrong direction as more possessions occurred in each game is a telling indicator.

What's our record ATS? Can't be good...
I mentioned up there it's 4-8.
 

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