Turning the Page- Stay Positive!

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Jan 24, 2020
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I posted some of this info in two different posts, but I wanted to combine them into one thread because I think its important to those who are down on Hurley or our prospects for next year.

Mike Singletary once famously said, “cant win with em, cant coach with em, cant do it”. He was referring to effort and selfishness, so its different in our case, but the takeaway is the same. Our upperclassmen “core” holdovers from the previous regime all seem like great kids who represent the school well. They try hard, they stay out of trouble, and they appear to be good and supportive teammates. BUT, we simply can not move forward as a program until the roster fully turns over. Its painfully obvious , but our current roster is severely lacking. We have 7 losses this year in what were close and very winnable games. Below is the cumulative stats of our upperclassmen core:
FG​
3p FG​
Gilbert​
24​
85​
28.24%​
10​
31​
32.26%​
Vital​
29​
95​
30.53%​
10​
46​
21.74%​
Carlton​
25​
53​
47.17%​
78
233
33.48%
20
77
25.97%
Assists​
Turnovers​
Gilbert​
30​
26​
Vital​
19​
22​
Carlton​
6​
21​
55
69

For those doing the math, on a per game basis that’s 11-33 from the field, 3-11 from 3, with 8 assists and 11 turnovers. From 3 of our 5 starters and the 3 guys who take (soon to be took) the most shots on our team! This is a 7 game sample size, which is about 20% of the season. I point to these numbers for anyone blaming Hurley and I simply ask, “what is he supposed to do?” Its literally impossible to win like that. And for those saying Hurley needs to do a better job with them, I agree to an extent, but Gilbert and Vital have always been low efficiency shooters and Carlton has always been severely limited athletically. There is only so much a coach can do with a 5'10 pg who can't shoot and a 6'10 big man who cant jump.

What does this mean for the future? Well brighter days are ahead IMO. I think RJ Cole will be a massive upgrade and I have some stats to back that up. Here are their advanced stats; AG from this year and Cole from last year. Different teams, conferences, level of comp, blah blah. Not a perfect comp, but gives some perspective:

TS%​
eFG%​
Asst%​
TO%​
Cole​
56.40%​
49.50%​
35.80%​
14.60%​
Gilbert​
43.10%​
39.10%​
31.90%​
19.80%​
PER​
Win Share​
Off BPM​
Def BPM​
BPM​
Cole​
23.4​
5.4​
5.7​
-3.4​
2.3​
Gilbert​
11.4​
1.1​
-0.2​
0.8​
0.6​

Everyone will say, “well look at the level of competition”, but keep in mind we have played more than a few games this year against mid-low majors. And Cole looked great in some of his games against major comp. I think it is clear that Cole is a much better player than Gilbert. Especially on the offensive end. Hes a better, waaaay more efficient shooter and scorer. He assists it more and turns it over far less. His defense is noticeably worse, but that will be a strength of the rest of our team so that should help cover for him. No doubt he needs to improve, but Id take an ace offensive player who makes everyone else better who is a poor defender to a bad offensive point guard who makes nobody better who is just an ok defender. I don't think its crazy to speculate that if if you swap out AG for Cole this year we win at least 4 of these 7 close games, honestly probably more like 5 or 6. And we could be sitting at 15-4 right now with a nice number next to our name.

Also, shockingly, Gilbert ranks 9th or 10th on our team (out of 10) in every one of those categories except Assist Rate which he leads. That's pretty crazy.
Suffice it to say that we are not as bad as our record is and our future is brighter than our record would otherwise indicate. We have no point guard, nobody to turn to late when we need a hoop, and no big man. Its honestly amazing that we are even in the position at the end to blow these games. AG, CV, and JC are all good kids who have been good representatives of the UConn program. But they have been asked to do too much and all could've excelled in lesser roles that they are better equipped for.

I think the future is bright and Hurley is the right man for the job. He just needs to get a full roster of his own kids who fit his system (AG and JC very clearly do not fit his style). We are a lot closer to being a Top 25 team next year than people realize. Cole is a big mystery, but I am confident hes going to be a major upgrade to our PG position.

*Edited because I had Gilbert and Cole's stats backwards.
 

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As pitiful as the stats are for offensive categories and late-game player metrics, this team is literally one 3 and a foul shot or two away from a vastly different record.

That in itself belies the conclusion that this team has no business being in these games with quality teams.
 
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
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1,121
I posted some of this info in two different posts, but I wanted to combine them into one thread because I think its important to those who are down on Hurley or our prospects for next year.

Mike Singletary once famously said, “cant win with em, cant coach with em, cant do it”. He was referring to effort and selfishness, so its different in our case, but the takeaway is the same. Our upperclassmen “core” holdovers from the previous regime all seem like great kids who represent the school well. They try hard, they stay out of trouble, and they appear to be good and supportive teammates. BUT, we simply can not move forward as a program until the roster fully turns over. Its painfully obvious , but our current roster is severely lacking. We have 7 losses this year in what were close and very winnable games. Below is the cumulative stats of our upperclassmen core:
FG​
3p FG​
Gilbert​
24​
85​
28.24%​
10​
31​
32.26%​
Vital​
29​
95​
30.53%​
10​
46​
21.74%​
Carlton​
25​
53​
47.17%​
78
233
33.48%
20
77
25.97%
Assists​
Turnovers​
Gilbert​
30​
26​
Vital​
19​
22​
Carlton​
6​
21​
55
69

For those doing the math, on a per game basis that’s 11-33 from the field, 3-11 from 3, with 8 assists and 11 turnovers. From 3 of our 5 starters and the 3 guys who take (soon to be took) the most shots on our team! This is a 7 game sample size, which is about 20% of the season. I point to these numbers for anyone blaming Hurley and I simply ask, “what is he supposed to do?” Its literally impossible to win like that. And for those saying Hurley needs to do a better job with them, I agree to an extent, but Gilbert and Vital have always been low efficiency shooters and Carlton has always been severely limited athletically. There is only so much a coach can do with a 5'10 pg who can't shoot and a 6'10 big man who cant jump.

What does this mean for the future? Well brighter days are ahead IMO. I think RJ Cole will be a massive upgrade and I have some stats to back that up. Here are their advanced stats; AG from this year and Cole from last year. Different teams, conferences, level of comp, blah blah. Not a perfect comp, but gives some perspective:

TS%​
eFG%​
Asst%​
TO%​
Cole​
56.40%​
49.50%​
35.80%​
14.60%​
Gilbert​
43.10%​
39.10%​
31.90%​
19.80%​
PER​
Win Share​
Off BPM​
Def BPM​
BPM​
Cole​
23.4​
5.4​
5.7​
-3.4​
2.3​
Gilbert​
11.4​
1.1​
-0.2​
0.8​
0.6​

Everyone will say, “well look at the level of competition”, but keep in mind we have played more than a few games this year against mid-low majors. And Cole looked great in some of his games against major comp. I think it is clear that Cole is a much better player than Gilbert. Especially on the offensive end. Hes a better, waaaay more efficient shooter and scorer. He assists it more and turns it over far less. His defense is noticeably worse, but that will be a strength of the rest of our team so that should help cover for him. No doubt he needs to improve, but Id take an ace offensive player who makes everyone else better who is a poor defender to a bad offensive point guard who makes nobody better who is just an ok defender. I don't think its crazy to speculate that if if you swap out AG for Cole this year we win at least 4 of these 7 close games, honestly probably more like 5 or 6. And we could be sitting at 15-4 right now with a nice number next to our name.

Also, shockingly, Gilbert ranks 9th or 10th on our team (out of 10) in every one of those categories except Assist Rate which he leads. That's pretty crazy.
Suffice it to say that we are not as bad as our record is and our future is brighter than our record would otherwise indicate. We have no point guard, nobody to turn to late when we need a hoop, and no big man. Its honestly amazing that we are even in the position at the end to blow these games. AG, CV, and JC are all good kids who have been good representatives of the UConn program. But they have been asked to do too much and all could've excelled in lesser roles that they are better equipped for.

I think the future is bright and Hurley is the right man for the job. He just needs to get a full roster of his own kids who fit his system (AG and JC very clearly do not fit his style). We are a lot closer to being a Top 25 team next year than people realize. Cole is a big mystery, but I am confident hes going to be a major upgrade to our PG position.

*Edited because I had Gilbert and Cole's stats backwards.
Great post!!!
 
Joined
Sep 26, 2019
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607
Can someone please show this to Hurley???

Great post, nice to back up what we all perceive with some pure statistics.
 
Joined
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I’m putting my chicken’s in Cole’s basket but we need even more if Gilbert don’t return.
 
Joined
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7/19 is actually almost 37%, so it’s even worse than you described.
 
Joined
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I believe Cole is the answer to many of our problems but I have to admit, I am guilty of ignoring his defensive deficiencies. Hopefully, a year of coaching, getting stronger and guarding other good players in practice has helped his D. He is going to be a much more mature and developed player for us than he was at Howard.
 

Psolo12

Future Doctor of Law
Joined
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1,843
He said recently he wants to be back, forgot where I read it though.
Hurley all but said he's gone and keeps referring to him and Vital as seniors. He is also actively recruiting 2020. He's gone after this year.
 

Huskyforlife

Akokbouk
Joined
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Messages
7,953
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Hurley all but said he's gone and keeps referring to him and Vital as seniors. He is also actively recruiting 2020. He's gone after this year.
Maybe he is, but I haven't seen any public reports of us recruiting guards for 2020.
 
Joined
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307
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Maybe he is, but I haven't seen any public reports of us recruiting guards for 2020.
Cole is our starting pg for the next two years, don't need one for 2020. Gilbert did say he would love to come back, but of course that's what he's going to say. He's gone after this year.
 

HuskyHawk

Hoping to see something that looks like basketball
Joined
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Maybe he is, but I haven't seen any public reports of us recruiting guards for 2020.

Because there's an ineligible one sitting on our bench. I do think we will find another, but that will take a scholarship beyond Al's.

We had coaches at one of the Hoophall games Sunrise vs Hillcrest, where the only available 2020 guys were guards. I asked who we were there to see and never got a response. There was the "creepy" picture of a kid at the game last weekend who picked up recruit tickets. He was about 6' (if that). No idea who that was.
 

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