Trying to Dissect the Boise TV Numbers

[UConnDan97]

I've been looking at the latest reports, trying to determine why Boise would go back to the Mountain West (monetarily speaking...I understand geography). Here's what I see:

Mountain West - Looking at the latest reports in the media, estimates for the Mountain West with Boise on board (and 10 teams in the league) appear to be in the 25 million dollar ballpark, when factoring in tier III stuff. That's obviously 2.5 million per team approximately, although the different teams would have different tier III value (depending on which games CBS "doesn't wish to buy" in the restructuring). That's my understanding of it.

Big East - The latest estimates that Dodd from CBS threw out there is approximately 40 million for a 13 team (including Navy) Big East, with the C-7 already removed from the calculations. That's approximately 3.1 million, and that is NOT factoring in the tier III stuff. That is also NOT factoring in Fresno and/or UNLV if they jump ship (although one would think that the addition of the two might only add 0.5 million each at best).

So if I'm understanding this right, the bottom line here is this; Boise will make about 1 million more if they join the Big East, on top of whatever money they are getting from the Big West for their olympic sports. They are only going to be flying further games for a few of their games (assuming they fly to SDSU and or Fresno and or UNLV anyways).

So my question is....why would they give up the extra 1 million per year in revenue? After the analysis, I'm feeling slightly better about the Big East's prospects for keeping Boise State...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Dodd's numbers are pulled out of his butt.

 

[UConnDan97]

Dodd's numbers are pulled out of his butt.

That's always the worry in situations like these. However, I think that the Mountain West side of the analysis is pretty static, since that is what they are restructuring to from their existing contract. I guess the $64 question is how good will the Big East contract actually be? Who the heck knows.

I will add this: SDSU AD Sterk mentioned by name that the Big East is currently talking with ESPN and FOX, for whatever that's worth. The fact that there are two companies in the discussion is always a good thing, especially since those two companies seem to be in a college inventory battle lately...

 

[Dann]

ok but take the mwc and get to 16 or more teams. when u add in a byu, uh and smu types to get that big # now u can have bsu games vs better teams. better markets and more inventory could equal a nice contract for the mwc. what happens if the mwc becomes this:
sdsu/haw/fresno/sj/bsu/byu/usu/unlv/unr/nm/cst//tulsa/uh/smu/utep

u think that contract gets 3+ a year per team? hawaii would be just fball, throw in zaga bball. may be just fball, throw in stmary bball. that bball league is a serious conf and the fball league aint shabby either. the top has some quality names and programs and the bottom has good potentials and the whole league has tex/cali spots and good markets. maybe bsu is building a monster mwc behind doors and sees it as a better home.

 

[UConnDan97]

ok but take the mwc and get to 16 or more teams. when u add in a byu, uh and smu types to get that big # now u can have bsu games vs better teams. better markets and more inventory could equal a nice contract for the mwc. what happens if the mwc becomes this:
sdsu/haw/fresno/sj/bsu/byu/usu/unlv/unr/nm/cst//tulsa/uh/smu/utep

u think that contract gets 3+ a year per team? hawaii would be just fball, throw in zaga bball. may be just fball, throw in stmary bball. that bball league is a serious conf and the fball league aint shabby either. the top has some quality names and programs and the bottom has good potentials and the whole league has tex/cali spots and good markets. maybe bsu is building a monster mwc behind doors and sees it as a better home.

The BYU addition is a game-changer, HFD. You can't do that unless you also do that for the Big East and analyze what that would be worth. Many of the rest of the additions that you are suggesting (like UTEP or even Tulsa) don't move the needle much at all. But of course BYU could move the needle big-time with their following.

So in other words, yeah, MW with BYU in it could get 3 million or more. But the Big East with BYU in it could get 5 million or more... (just my opinion, of course, but I think it's a reasonable one)

 

[Dann]

The BYU addition is a game-changer, HFD. You can't do that unless you also do that for the Big East and analyze what that would be worth. Many of the rest of the additions that you are suggesting (like UTEP or even Tulsa) don't move the needle much at all. But of course BYU could move the needle big-time with their following.

So in other words, yeah, MW with BYU in it could get 3 million or more. But the Big East with BYU in it could get 5 million or more... (just my opinion, of course, but I think it's a reasonable one)

is byu willing to join the nbe tho, i bet they car emore about a game vs fresno then tulane or memphis. schools like bsu and byu can have all sports in this mwc instead of just fball in the nbe. they may like that more and the small $ difference may not be worth it to split so many sports up at this point. maybe they also think uconn and cincy are gone soon. then whats left? potentials out east, temple and the florida schools vs the mwc i posted above. i would stay west also i think. the mvher3 tweet was another funy guy clown tweet but think about it for a minute. what happens if the mwc goes to the 16 i said, then thet invite the floida schools or something crazy like that. hell latech was in the mwc not to long ago right?

how about a 20 team mwc? a east division with uh/smu/mem/latech/usf/ucf...crazy but possible strong arm move by bsu and the mwc..

 

[Jericho]

Are the Big East numbers for All Sports? Meaning that Boise State, as a football only, would get less (maybe around 75-80% of the proposal)? That also has to weigh in. The Big West would give very, very little.

 

[Dann]

Are the Big East numbers for All Sports? Meaning that Boise State, as a football only, would get less (maybe around 75-80% of the proposal)? That also has to weigh in. The Big West would give very, very little.

yup bsu and sdsu were fball only. so factor that $ wise also vs a uconn or cincy as all sports $

 

[UConnDan97]

Are the Big East numbers for All Sports? Meaning that Boise State, as a football only, would get less (maybe around 75-80% of the proposal)? That also has to weigh in. The Big West would give very, very little.

Great point, Jericho. Although I have to assume that the number for the football only's at 80% is still going to be more than the Mountain West at 100%, due primarily to a full Tier III (if I understand it properly) rather than leftover games from what CBS doesn't want. Also, the Big West money does still offset a little of it, although we are probably talking maybe $200,000 or so?

 

[UConnDan97]

is byu willing to join the nbe tho, i bet they car emore about a game vs fresno then tulane or memphis. schools like bsu and byu can have all sports in this mwc instead of just fball in the nbe. they may like that more and the small $ difference may not be worth it to split so many sports up at this point. maybe they also think uconn and cincy are gone soon. then whats left? potentials out east, temple and the florida schools vs the mwc i posted above. i would stay west also i think. the mvher3 tweet was another funy guy clown tweet but think about it for a minute. what happens if the mwc goes to the 16 i said, then thet invite the floida schools or something crazy like that. hell latech was in the mwc not to long ago right?

how about a 20 team mwc? a east division with uh/smu/mem/latech/usf/ucf...crazy but possible strong arm move by bsu and the mwc..

If anything, HFD, I would think that BYU would be MORE interested in playing in the Big East than the MW for precisely that reason; coast-to-coast into the big cities. Let's not forget what their primary mission is at BYU! I think it's the main reason why they gave us so much consideration the first time around, and why they may be still giving us consideration now (by all reports, they are at least talking with us about it, since their access to the "BCS" bowls is now severely restricted)...

 

[Dann]

If anything, HFD, I would think that BYU would be MORE interested in playing in the Big East than the MW for precisely that reason; coast-to-coast into the big cities. Let's not forget what their primary mission is at BYU! I think it's the main reason why they gave us so much consideration the first time around, and why they may be still giving us consideration now (by all reports, they are at least talking with us about it, since their access to the "BCS" bowls is now severely restricted)...

also a factor is cbs redid the contract so that another media like fox maybe can get some mwc inventory. that could be another mil to add $ wise...

 

[UConnDan97]

also a factor is cbs redid the contract so that another media like fox maybe can get some mwc inventory. that could be another mil to add $ wise...

Actually, from what it sounds like, CBS redid the contract so that another media WOULDN'T WANT to add another mil. It sounds like CBS will only be "relinquishing" games that they don't wish to air (how that choice is made is beyond me, but you can be certain that they will preferentially keep Boise's games). So from that standpoint, I'm not sure it helps Boise very much at all...

 

[upstater]

The BYU addition is a game-changer, HFD. You can't do that unless you also do that for the Big East and analyze what that would be worth. Many of the rest of the additions that you are suggesting (like UTEP or even Tulsa) don't move the needle much at all. But of course BYU could move the needle big-time with their following.

So in other words, yeah, MW with BYU in it could get 3 million or more. But the Big East with BYU in it could get 5 million or more... (just my opinion, of course, but I think it's a reasonable one)

Why would BYU join the MWC?

 

[UConnDan97]

Why would BYU join the MWC?

Apparently, they are "talking", much in the same way that the Big East and BYU are talking. I think that BYU sees the near future, whereby they would have to finish in the top four in the rankings in order to qualify for a major bowl, and saying to themselves that this might be the tipping point for them to end their independence. Keep in mind that the large bowl revenue also has to be added to the equations here as well...