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Message: [QUOTE="RuffRuff, post: 5233694, member: 1268"] I mean, maybe: 1) low probability against the field 2) emotional decision making, he's graduated and a likely financial move is next for him 3) " ", not sure a graduated player is thinking about fun 4) most significant variable - what is the two way guarantee potential against a 1 year NIL 5) doubtful - he had his chance this year and went backwards. He's probably better off going with the positive stock he built one year younger than another year of growth. What's he going to improve on? His footspeed isn't changing, his shooting mechanics didn't move, he showed no floor game to speak of. Alex is already an old junior. He's going to be surrounded by a group of strangers next year, freshman and transfers. Maybe that's something he's ok with, but it feels to me like he not only graduated academically but emotionally. I'd call it a 10% chance, but what do I know? [/QUOTE]