Tourney Prediction For Every Team

[RegisteredUconn]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#womens

So the prediction model holds that South Florida, the team UConn has already played 3 times has a better chance of making the regional finals than the other three six seeds combined (22% vs 9% for GW + 8% for TAMU + 2% for Washington.

Only 12 teams have better odds of reaching the regional finals than the Bulls.
1. UConn 98%
2. South Carolina 81%
3. Notre Dame 80%
4. Baylor 74%
5. Maryland 64%
6. Florida State 61%
7. Tennessee 59%
8. Kentucky 36%
Oregon State 36%
10. Louisville 29%
11. Duke 24%
12. Arizona State 23%

Yet the committee felt compelled to squeeze USF into UConn's region.

 

[DobbsRover2]

USF ranged from#12 in Sagarin to #26 in brain-dead RPI, and the committee decided to give the Bulls a #6 seed. Once the committee slotted Louisville into the #3 spot in Albany, there was one semi-lucky #6 seed who was going to be given the opportunity to host the first two rounds and greatly increase its chances of getting to the Sweet 16. That team turned out to be USF.

Can't have it both ways. If some other #6 seed like George Washington has been slotted into that Albany #6 spot, it would have had an advantage for advancing over the other 6 seeds.

But interesting that USCar's chances are rated ahead of ND's. The Irish will be in a furor.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

USF could be that next team that benefits from having UCONN in it's conference. I def think it's a great recruiting tool to use to potential players to say hey, you can come here and play and compete against the best coach and best team in America. It would def be a recruiting tactic I'd use. Not to mention the weather in South Florida can be so beautiful.

As far as USF and the tournament, they def are the best 6 seed of the group and Texas AM being the weakest IMO. With what would basically amount to almost a home game for USF against Louisville in the second round, a win there is very doable. Then, a possible matchup with Kentucky is also a very winnable game for the Bulls. Remember, they played Kentucky tough earlier in the season and was actually leading at half. What really cost USF that game was the horrid free throw shooting...

 

[DobbsRover2]

Yeah, although USF is rated a little behind 3-seed Louisville by Sagarin, they are actually rated much better than 2-seed KY, though of course that match up would be in Albany instead of Tampa.

 

[alexrgct]

Well, it looks like USF has a worse chance of making it to the Elite 8 round than Louisville or Kentucky, and USF would probably have to beat both of those teams to advance to the regional finals. This seems a stretch...

Edit: also fascinating that the site is giving UConn a 74% chance to win it all, whereas no other #1 seed has a better than 10% chance.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

If I was USF, I would be a little nervous about LSU.

Yes, LSU was pretty lousy in the first half of the season, but in the
second half, with the return of Ballard, they have been much better
with wins against Kentucky, Miss St., and A&M (with some bad
losses mixed in).

If LSU brings their A game, USF will need to bring theirs as well.

 

[DobbsRover2]

But the game is at Tampa, and USF is 10-1 in its last 11 home games, the one loss being to UConn. LSU has done badly on the road, and almost all of their best wins have come at home, and they've lost 4 of their last 7. LSU certainly did not bring their A game to road games in late February at Arkansas (22 point loss) and Ole Miss, when Ballard shot 12-28 combined with 9 turnovers. Bulls should gore the Tigers.

 

[reno tony]

Just a little example of an FSU game stats: FG% 44%, 3PT% 50%, FT% 88%. Those stats were against UCONN in the AAC Final. So they might not be favorites to beat a lot of teams but I certainly wouldn't be celebrating when I found out they were my next opponent. They might be peaking at the right time and I would love to see UCONN play them again.

My prediction for all the teams last game is simple. UCONN wins, the other 63 lose.