Phil
Stats Geek
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2011
- Messages
- 4,584
- Reaction Score
- 6,279
Four of the top five teams played on Sunday (sorry, Vandy, I'm using Massey rankings).
All four won, all four are feeling good about their performance, and three of the four can justify that on basketball grounds.
Starting with fifth-place, LSU took on 15th ranked Oklahoma. Massey projected a win but playing on Oklahoma's home court, the projected margin of victory was only three points. LSU won easily 91 – 72, exceeding the projected margin of victory by 16 points. They have exceeded the projected margin of victory several times this season, with an average excess points of nine per game so this was one of their better games this season.
Texas is sitting in fourth place, and took on in-state rival Texas A&M. TAMU is having an off year ranked only 55 in Massey, but sometimes in-state rivalries defy expectations. Not this time. Texas was expected to win by 30 points, but ended up with an 80 – 35 win, exceeding expectations by 15 points. Despite very different types of opponents, Texas and LSU came in with almost identical performances.
UCLA is in 3rd place in Massey but leading the nation in quad one wins by quite a margin, and a lot of pundits think they are the second best team, maybe even the best. They took on Maryland ranked 16 in Massey and 12 in AP. No question that UCLA was expected to win but Massey had them as 10 point favorites, giving Maryland one chance in four of pulling the upset. Not this Sunday. UCLA rolled to a 97 – 67 victory, blowing away the 10 point expected margin of victory by 20 points. UCLA has met or exceeded the Massey expected margin of victory in all but two game this year — this was their fourth best such outing.
South Carolina is in 2nd place in Massey. They took on Coppin State in what has become an annual event for top-ranked teams. With Coppin State ranked 299, there was not much doubt about who was going to win the game. Massey projected a 57 point win, but South Carolina's 90 – 42 win by 48 points looked impressive but it was -15 points compared to the expected margin of victory. For reasons previously discussed, it's wrong to read too much into that underperformance, but at least it wasn't a significant over performance like UCLA, Texas and LSU.
The remaining team in the top five plays today.
All four won, all four are feeling good about their performance, and three of the four can justify that on basketball grounds.
Starting with fifth-place, LSU took on 15th ranked Oklahoma. Massey projected a win but playing on Oklahoma's home court, the projected margin of victory was only three points. LSU won easily 91 – 72, exceeding the projected margin of victory by 16 points. They have exceeded the projected margin of victory several times this season, with an average excess points of nine per game so this was one of their better games this season.
Texas is sitting in fourth place, and took on in-state rival Texas A&M. TAMU is having an off year ranked only 55 in Massey, but sometimes in-state rivalries defy expectations. Not this time. Texas was expected to win by 30 points, but ended up with an 80 – 35 win, exceeding expectations by 15 points. Despite very different types of opponents, Texas and LSU came in with almost identical performances.
UCLA is in 3rd place in Massey but leading the nation in quad one wins by quite a margin, and a lot of pundits think they are the second best team, maybe even the best. They took on Maryland ranked 16 in Massey and 12 in AP. No question that UCLA was expected to win but Massey had them as 10 point favorites, giving Maryland one chance in four of pulling the upset. Not this Sunday. UCLA rolled to a 97 – 67 victory, blowing away the 10 point expected margin of victory by 20 points. UCLA has met or exceeded the Massey expected margin of victory in all but two game this year — this was their fourth best such outing.
South Carolina is in 2nd place in Massey. They took on Coppin State in what has become an annual event for top-ranked teams. With Coppin State ranked 299, there was not much doubt about who was going to win the game. Massey projected a 57 point win, but South Carolina's 90 – 42 win by 48 points looked impressive but it was -15 points compared to the expected margin of victory. For reasons previously discussed, it's wrong to read too much into that underperformance, but at least it wasn't a significant over performance like UCLA, Texas and LSU.
The remaining team in the top five plays today.