Top HS Rankings vs. WBCA All-American Teams

[DefenseBB]

With yesterdays announcement of the WBCA teams and the anticipated signings of the next wave of HS prospects (including yesterdays Caroline Ducharme announcement!), I did a comparison of the HoopGurlz Top 10 Player ranking since 2007 (Maya Moore) to 2017 (Meg Walker). I used this set of data as 2007 was the first year available for Top10 and because no Sophomores (2018) or Freshman (2019) made the team this year. I would be glad to incorporate the Blue Star and Prospect Nation rankings if anyone will send me those (@Dillon77 @Sluconn Husky or anyone else) as I think it is curious how well these services would do against each other.

Here's my premise-Top 10 Ranking from 2007-2017 gives us 110 Players (11 years). I compared this list to the 130 WBCA spots from 2008-2020 (13 years). I did analysis on schools, #of players, # of appearances (some players make it multiple year), HG Class rank and HG Class year.
the take-aways:
Schools with most Top 10 HoopGurlz from 2007-2017:
1. Tennessee w/13, but subtract 2 transfers (#2 Westbrook/#7 Hayes)=11
2. UConn w/12 but subtract 2 transfers (#1 Delle Donne/#10 Samarie Walker/add
transfer-#2 Westbrook)=11
3. Duke w/12, but subtact transfer out-Alexis Jones, 1 turning pro-Salvadores and 1 quitting due to injury-Belton=9

Schools with most Top 10 HG who made the WBCA Team from 2007-2017:
1. UConn had 8 Women make the WBCA team a total of 18 times. (Maya was a 4 time member).
2. Notre Dame had 4 Women for a total of 9 times (Diggins a 3 time member)
3. Baylor had 3 Women for a total of 7 times (Griner and Sims each 3 times). Interesting was Kalani was not top 10.

HoopGurlz by the Class Year in the WBCA:
1. 2012 Class had 5 of the Top 10 make the WBCA a total of 9 times (Stewart/Jefferson/Tuck were 6 of these)
2. 2010 Class had 4 and 9 times (Chiney Ogwumike led with 3)
2. 2015 Class had 4 and 9 times (Katie Lou-3, Pheesa-2 led the way)
3. 2008 Class had 4 and 7 times (Nneka Ogwumike led with 3, Delle Donne had 2)

Interesting to note that the 2013 Class was the only HG class to NOT have any WBCA members..

HoopGurlz by Rank in the WBCA:
1. #1 Ranking led the way with 10 of the 11 Women who were ranked #1 earning WBCA a total of 25 times (Maya led the way with 4) and bodes well for Christyn, Paige and Azzi . Only Mercedes Russell '13 not making the team.
2. #2 Ranking had 4 players for 7 times (MoJeff, Bri Turner and Asia Durr each had 2, Eliz Williams was the other).
2. #6 Ranking also had 4 players for 7 times (Nneka Ogwumike-3, Pheesa-2, Tuck-1 and Chennedy was the other)

Four numerical Rankings only garnered 1 Person on the WBCA team (#5, #7, #8, #9).

Of the 130 WBCA spots, 31 HoopGurlz Top 10 players qualified for 63 of the spots (48%). Of note is only 2 Transfers have made the WBCA-Elena Delle Donne and Courtney Williams (Texas A&M to South Florida), so transfers beware!

The obvious facts are the Top Recruit is almost guaranteed to make the WBCA team. UConn has had 5 so far, I suspect Christyn Williams will get there, maybe even next year.

From 2007-17, there were 12 Programs who have garnered 4 or more Top 10 players. Of that group:
1. UConn has an 80% (8 of 10) chance of making All-American (I omitted Evina as she didn't play this year
2. ND has 80% (4 of 5 or 4 of 6 if you want to count Boley's one year)
3. Baylor has 75% (3 of 4)

Programs YOU DON'T want to go to as you will not develop:
1. Texas is 0/7 in Top 10 Recruits not making the WBCA Team ever.
1. Rutgers is 0/7
3. UCLA is 0/4
3. NCheat is 0/4 (note to @triaddukefan this will be the last time I use that acronym-time to move on, sorry )

Of note is Tennessee was 2 for 13 but that includes 2 players Pat developed (Johnson/Stricklen) Holly is 0/6
Also Duke is only 2 for 9 or 2 for 11 if you count Jones-2 yrs and Belton-2 yrs.

Here is the list of most appearances on the WBCA from 2007-17 sorted by # and HG Ranking.

Name	School	# on	HG Rk
Maya Moore	UConn	4	1
Alyssa Thomas	Maryland	3	7
Nneka Ogwumike	Stanford	3	6
Kelsey Mitchell	Ohio State	3	5
Sabrina Ionescu	Oregon	3	4
Odyssey Sims	Baylor	3	3
Skylar Diggins	Notre Dame	3	3
Brittney Griner	Baylor	3	1
A'ja Wilson	South Carolina	3	1
Chiney Ogwumike	Stanford	3	1
Breanna Stewart	UConn	3	1
Katie Lou Samuelson	UConn	3	1
Kalani Brown	Baylor	3	#N/A
Jantel Lavender	Ohio State	3	#N/A

Ok, let's have the questions and comments!

 

[SVCBeercats]

[QUOTE="DefenseBB, post: 3503408, member: 7492"Ok, let's have the questions and comments! [/QUOTE]

Outstanding!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DefenseBB]

Due to the volume of data, I am struggling how else to present it for digestion. There were some really interesting items I found while researching. From a Top 10 HG perspective for all years, Tennessee has really garnered far more than I remembered. There trend is downward while SC trend is upward. Baylor hasn't gotten as many as I had thought-though Griner and Odyssey Sims probably skewed that due to their elite play.
Here's another chart to show the distribution of the top 10 HoopGurlz players from 2007-Now.

Header legend- Cur HG is all 16 years of Top 10 Numbers. UConn has had 17 Women commit. From '07-17, they had 12 Top Ten Women commit. UConn has earned 28 positions on the WBCA squad (many players multiple times), Cnt is the count of the Players who originally committed to UConn and made the squad (Delle Donne) and #Play is the number of players who made the squad while playing for that school.

 

[Plebe]

Lots of interesting data there. Not too much of it is particularly surprising, I suppose. Mildly surprised to see that Rutgers has tied with Maryland, Stanford and Baylor in Cur HG, but maybe not so much if it covers 16 years of data.

 

[Geesworld]

DefenseBB Thank you for taking the time to give us this breakdown. Genius material!
The Blue Blood programs of women basketball definitely control the landscape. Surprised to see California in the mix. Can you list who the player/s are for California?

 

[huskyblooz]

That's fantastic work. Thank you. But you can't add Westbrook to our list since she hasn't stepped foot on the court yet.

 

[DefenseBB]

DefenseBB Thank you for taking the time to give us this breakdown. Genius material!
The Blue Blood programs of women basketball definitely control the landscape. Surprised to see California in the mix. Can you list who the player/s are for California?

2011 Justine Hartman #7
2014 Mikayla Cowling #10
2015 Kristine Anigwe #8

 

[DefenseBB]

That's fantastic work. Thank you. But you can't add Westbrook to our list since she hasn't stepped foot on the court yet.

I didn't include her in the WBCA calculation, but she is on the roster and is a Top10 player so she stays on the list.

 

[DefenseBB]

Lots of interesting data there. Not too much of it is particularly surprising, I suppose. Mildly surprised to see that Rutgers has tied with Maryland, Stanford and Baylor in Cur HG, but maybe not so much if it covers 16 years of data.

Well, yes and no, Rutgers was a destination school from 2007-2013 as 7 of the 8 signed then, but CVS did sign 2020 commit Diamond Johnson ranked #6!

 

[CBus13]

This is fun stuff to look over, thanks for doing this.

Two notes, the Courtney Williams you’re referring to from USF who was a WBCA was never in the Top 10. There was however, a Courtney Williams, who was a HG Top 10, from Texas A&M. I don’t believe she was ever a WBCA All-American. She was part of that big class post NCAA championship run for the Aggies that brought in Jordan Jones and their first 3-time AP all-American Courtney Walker. Among others.

The second is in regards to the second table. You list Ohio State as having only 1 played in the CNT and the #play but I think it should be two unless I’m misunderstanding the legend. Jantel Lavender (3x and ranked top 5 HG) and Kelsey Mitchell (3x and ranked top 5 HG).