bballnut90
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I'll first note that I probably haven't watched as much women's college basketball as most of you this year...but based on what I have seen plus from looking at box scores/recaps, I thought I'd give a little analysis/outlook for each member of the current top 25:
1. UCONN-they're UCONN, but they're quite inconsistent which seems to be a general theme this year. They soundly beat ND on the road and crushed DePaul, but they had a close call against a 4-7 Oklahoma team, beat #14 Cal just by 10, and it was close late against St. Johns. This is definitely not the same dominant UCONN force as they've been the last several years, but they might be the best in the country once again. Odds are Huskies will run the table for the 4th straight regular season, or at worst I see them losing 1 game. Huskies are the title favorite right now. Big games to watch include:
@ Baylor on 1/3
@ Louisville on 1/31
2. Notre Dame-they've looked about as good as they do most years...better than everyone else except for UCONN. I think most fans predict another UCONN-ND showdown come tournament time. ND has some big wins against Oregon State, Iowa and Marquette. They appear to be a likely lock for a #1 seed and should be a legitimate title threat. Big games to watch include:
vs. Louisville on 1/10
@ Tennessee on 1/24
3. Louisville-they are undefeated and have wins against top 25 foes, but they've had a few close calls against mediocre teams and don't look like the team that nearly beat Mississippi State a year ago. The Notre Dame and UCONN matchups will be telling. I'm not sold on this team as a Final Four favorite yet until I see them hang with the Huskies or the Irish.
4. Maryland-they're about to plummet big time and I will not be surprised if they lose several games in the Big Ten this year after losing at home to Rutgers. If they want to earn a top 3 seed I don't think they can lose more than 1 more game prior to the tournament. I think this team is a likely Sweet 16 squad but is on the outside looking in regarding a Final Four berth. Big games for Maryland are :
at Michigan State on 1/17
@ Iowa on 2/17
vs Minnesota on 2/21
5. Oregon-after the loss at Michigan State, Oregon rebounded extremely well with a huge win over Mississippi State. Ducks don't appear to be an overwhelming favorite for a #1 seed but as of right now, I'd say they're likely to earn a #1 seed come tournament time. Whether they can take the next step and make a Final Four remains to be seen. Big games ahead for the Ducks include this brutal 11 day stretch:
@ Cal 2/8
@ Stanford 2/10
vs. Oregon State 2/15
@ Oregon State 2/18
If they can escape that stretch going 3-1 or 4-0, they should be in the drivers seat for a #1.
6. Stanford-Ironically they feel like Oregon's little sister this year in the Pac. No major star power for the Card but they look extremely good with big wins over Baylor and at Tennessee. I think this is Tara's best squad in years since the Ogwumike days. Solid threats all over the court and their only loss so far was to a very good Gonzaga team on the road. They're a legit Final Four threat, and may be a Final Four favorite if they can come out of this brutal stretch 3-1 or 4-0:
@ Cal 1/31
vs. Cal 2/2
vs. Oregon State 2/8
vs. Oregon 2/5
I don't think they match up well with Connecticut but have a shot to win against anyone else
7. Mississippi State-there's no question Mississippi State is a dangerous team again, but how good they really are will be revealed in conference play. They played a cupcake heavy schedule in the preseason, but they looked good in wins against streaky Marquette and Texas. On the flip side, they did not look like a strong team against Oregon and McCowan had her worst showing of the season. SEC is down this year so Mississippi State should be the heavy favorite to take the crown, but they'll have tough games against:
vs. Kentucky on 1/6
vs. South Carolina on 1/23
vs. Tennessee on 2/10
@ South Carolina on 3/3
To be a favorite for a #1 seed, I think Mississippi State can only lose 2 games prior to the tournament. I think this team does have championship potential if they can hit perimeter shots consistently and find scoring from Holmes/Danbury.
8. Baylor-another team many thought would be a heavy title favorite and the verdict on them is up in the Baylor. Big 12 is definitely down this year and no one really knows how good Baylor is at this point. They have just 1 reliable 3 point threat, Brown and Cox were badly outplayed by Stanford's Smith, PG play isn't a given with Jackson, and the roster appears to have too much talent right now. So many teams could use help with quality post play and depth (ex. UCONN, Louisville, Tennessee, Oregon State, etc) and they all appear to be sharing minutes at Baylor. Kim needs to figure out her rotation rather than spreading minutes around so generously like she has against cupcake teams. Not sold on Baylor being a Final Four favorite, although they're definitely a Final Four threat. Massive game coming up against UCONN on 1/3, it's really their only chance left to show they can compete with an beat another top 10 foe after losing to Stanford. Other games of note:
@ Texas on 2/4
vs. Texas on 2/25
9. NC State-they've played a light schedule to start the year but have good wins against Michigan and Michigan State. Haven't watched them this year, but on paper they look like a strong candidate to finish 3rd in the ACC behind Notre Dame and likely Louisville. I don't see this team being a strong final four threat, but they'll have a chance to prove their worth in these games:
@ Syracuse on 2/14
vs Notre Dame on 2/18
@ Louisville on 2/28
10. Tennessee-everyone's favorite team finished 11-1 against a light non-conference schedule. They picked up a good win at Texas but struggled against some pretty mediocre squads including Belmont, Stetson, UAB, and Clemson. Final Four threat? I don't see it. If history repeats itself, look for Tennessee to struggle in their conference this year even with a favorable schedule. Some key games for the Lady Vols include:
vs. Kentucky on 1/10
vs. Notre Dame on 1/24
@ Mississippi State on 2/10
11. Oregon State-a team that's sure to be everyone's dark horse pick come tournament time, OSU has been respectable but not overwhelmingly impressive during non-conference play. Hard fought loss to Notre Dame, a not as well played loss against Texas A&M, close win over South Carolina, and they took care of business against everyone else. They have the same brutal stretch against:
@ Stanford 2/8
@ Cal 2/10
@ Oregon 2/15
vs. Oregon 2/18
That they'll need to win 1-2 games of if they want to secure a top 3 seed IMO. If they can get *some* production from their bigs against good teams, they can win big games. I think they're definitely a Final Four threat with Slocum/Rueck, but they need to make strides if they'll go on a run in March.
12. Minnesota-they had a great non conference run including a win over Syracuse. Whalen and Co are off to a great start and should face tougher foes in the Big 10 as the season gets rolling. They have 2 tough games coming up:
1/9 @ Michigan State
1/14 vs. Iowa
That will give us a clearer picture if Minnesota is worthy of a top 15-20 ranking or if they were over ranked due to a weak non-conference schedule.
13. Texas-their roster has had so many transfers and injuries (Prince, Patterson, Boothe, Higgs) but they came out of their non-conference run with just 2 losses to Tennessee and Mississippi State. Lots of questions with this squad though:
1. They are horrendous from deep
2. Their coach doesn't appear to be very good
3. What's the deal with Charli Collier?? She's not being utilized well.
Holmes being back in the mix should give this team a boost, but they're lighter on talent this year than they've been the last few, and I think a 2nd round or Sweet 16 exit from the tournament appears likely. A lot of teams right now in the Big 12 have fantastic records but conference play will separate the contenders vs. the pretenders. Biggest games are:
vs. Baylor on 2/4
@ Baylor on 2/25
14. Syracuse-they always seem to be decently tough but can't quite pull out wins against great teams (sans beating SC in the Sweet 16 in 2016). Their point guard is a joy to watch and this team is dangerous though. Big games in the back half of conference play are:
@ Louisville on 2/3
vs. NC State on 2/14
vs. ND on 2/25
15. Michigan State-out of nowhere Michigan State looks like it might be the class of the Big Ten. Haven't watched them this year but was really impressed with Allen last season, and it appears she's taken her game to a new level. Big Ten should provide some good competition for Michigan State. I think they'll likely finish as a 3-6 seed depending on how they do during these games:
vs. Minnesota 1/9
vs. Maryland 1/17
@ Iowa 2/19
@ Minnesota 3/3
16. Kentucky-did better than expected in their non-conference run and gave Louisville a tough game on the road. Their freshman, Howard, is really good and they only face Tennessee/Mississippi State one time each, although it is back to back games on the road. If they lose those, they'll need to clean up and do well against South Carolina (2 games) and Texas A&M (2 games). I think this team is a Sweet 16 threat, but don't see them as a Final Four threat.
@ Mississippi State 1/7
@ Tennessee 1/10
17. Gonzaga-beat Stanford and should run the table in the WCC. Only loss is to Notre Dame, should host first 2 rounds IMO. Dangerous team that has a Final Four sleeper feel to it. If they get put in the west regional, their fans will travel well to Portland, making them even more dangerous.
18. Cal-another inconsistent team...they play hard against UCONN and then lose to Harvard. Anigwe is having a great senior year and they could make noise in the PAC. Their stretch against Stanford/Oregon schools will be big for their chances to host the first 2 rounds.
19. Iowa-Gustafson is great, I think they're overrated though. They lost badly to Notre Dame and Michigan State...wouldn't be surprised if they finish 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten this year.
20. Marquette-another streaky team with a chance to host if they can win the Big East over DePaul. They looked really really good against Mississippi State. Very fast guards. Very dangerous team as a 4 or 5 seed in the tournament, chance at a 3 if they run the table going into the tournament.
21. Texas A&M-they're dangerous due to Carter alone. Carter is a polarizing player and can win or lose games for her team. I would not want them as a 4, 5, or 6 in my region if I'm a 1 or 3 seed. I don't think they have the horses to make a Final Four run, Elite 8 is the best outlook for this team. Realistically, 2nd round or Sweet 16 exit.
22. Arizona State-played Louisville and Baylor tough despite losing both games. They are not very good offensively. I think they're likely a 5-7 seed come tournament time and their ceiling is a Sweet 16.
23. South Carolina-they're a dangerous tournament team IMO with their guard play and Jennings coming along nicely. I don't think they're a Final Four threat, but I do think they have the best shot to beat Mississippi State in conference play of any team, and they'll be a dangerous 5, 6, or 7 seed in the tournament. Sweet 16 is their ceiling this year.
24. DePaul-they're always in the 18-25 range. They look like a 2nd round team once again that can make noise with its 3s but they're never going to be a dangerous team until they improve interior play.
25. Iowa State-played Iowa close, pretty light non conference besides that. Should get better tests in the Big 12. Not sure how to gage them right now.
1. UCONN-they're UCONN, but they're quite inconsistent which seems to be a general theme this year. They soundly beat ND on the road and crushed DePaul, but they had a close call against a 4-7 Oklahoma team, beat #14 Cal just by 10, and it was close late against St. Johns. This is definitely not the same dominant UCONN force as they've been the last several years, but they might be the best in the country once again. Odds are Huskies will run the table for the 4th straight regular season, or at worst I see them losing 1 game. Huskies are the title favorite right now. Big games to watch include:
@ Baylor on 1/3
@ Louisville on 1/31
2. Notre Dame-they've looked about as good as they do most years...better than everyone else except for UCONN. I think most fans predict another UCONN-ND showdown come tournament time. ND has some big wins against Oregon State, Iowa and Marquette. They appear to be a likely lock for a #1 seed and should be a legitimate title threat. Big games to watch include:
vs. Louisville on 1/10
@ Tennessee on 1/24
3. Louisville-they are undefeated and have wins against top 25 foes, but they've had a few close calls against mediocre teams and don't look like the team that nearly beat Mississippi State a year ago. The Notre Dame and UCONN matchups will be telling. I'm not sold on this team as a Final Four favorite yet until I see them hang with the Huskies or the Irish.
4. Maryland-they're about to plummet big time and I will not be surprised if they lose several games in the Big Ten this year after losing at home to Rutgers. If they want to earn a top 3 seed I don't think they can lose more than 1 more game prior to the tournament. I think this team is a likely Sweet 16 squad but is on the outside looking in regarding a Final Four berth. Big games for Maryland are :
at Michigan State on 1/17
@ Iowa on 2/17
vs Minnesota on 2/21
5. Oregon-after the loss at Michigan State, Oregon rebounded extremely well with a huge win over Mississippi State. Ducks don't appear to be an overwhelming favorite for a #1 seed but as of right now, I'd say they're likely to earn a #1 seed come tournament time. Whether they can take the next step and make a Final Four remains to be seen. Big games ahead for the Ducks include this brutal 11 day stretch:
@ Cal 2/8
@ Stanford 2/10
vs. Oregon State 2/15
@ Oregon State 2/18
If they can escape that stretch going 3-1 or 4-0, they should be in the drivers seat for a #1.
6. Stanford-Ironically they feel like Oregon's little sister this year in the Pac. No major star power for the Card but they look extremely good with big wins over Baylor and at Tennessee. I think this is Tara's best squad in years since the Ogwumike days. Solid threats all over the court and their only loss so far was to a very good Gonzaga team on the road. They're a legit Final Four threat, and may be a Final Four favorite if they can come out of this brutal stretch 3-1 or 4-0:
@ Cal 1/31
vs. Cal 2/2
vs. Oregon State 2/8
vs. Oregon 2/5
I don't think they match up well with Connecticut but have a shot to win against anyone else
7. Mississippi State-there's no question Mississippi State is a dangerous team again, but how good they really are will be revealed in conference play. They played a cupcake heavy schedule in the preseason, but they looked good in wins against streaky Marquette and Texas. On the flip side, they did not look like a strong team against Oregon and McCowan had her worst showing of the season. SEC is down this year so Mississippi State should be the heavy favorite to take the crown, but they'll have tough games against:
vs. Kentucky on 1/6
vs. South Carolina on 1/23
vs. Tennessee on 2/10
@ South Carolina on 3/3
To be a favorite for a #1 seed, I think Mississippi State can only lose 2 games prior to the tournament. I think this team does have championship potential if they can hit perimeter shots consistently and find scoring from Holmes/Danbury.
8. Baylor-another team many thought would be a heavy title favorite and the verdict on them is up in the Baylor. Big 12 is definitely down this year and no one really knows how good Baylor is at this point. They have just 1 reliable 3 point threat, Brown and Cox were badly outplayed by Stanford's Smith, PG play isn't a given with Jackson, and the roster appears to have too much talent right now. So many teams could use help with quality post play and depth (ex. UCONN, Louisville, Tennessee, Oregon State, etc) and they all appear to be sharing minutes at Baylor. Kim needs to figure out her rotation rather than spreading minutes around so generously like she has against cupcake teams. Not sold on Baylor being a Final Four favorite, although they're definitely a Final Four threat. Massive game coming up against UCONN on 1/3, it's really their only chance left to show they can compete with an beat another top 10 foe after losing to Stanford. Other games of note:
@ Texas on 2/4
vs. Texas on 2/25
9. NC State-they've played a light schedule to start the year but have good wins against Michigan and Michigan State. Haven't watched them this year, but on paper they look like a strong candidate to finish 3rd in the ACC behind Notre Dame and likely Louisville. I don't see this team being a strong final four threat, but they'll have a chance to prove their worth in these games:
@ Syracuse on 2/14
vs Notre Dame on 2/18
@ Louisville on 2/28
10. Tennessee-everyone's favorite team finished 11-1 against a light non-conference schedule. They picked up a good win at Texas but struggled against some pretty mediocre squads including Belmont, Stetson, UAB, and Clemson. Final Four threat? I don't see it. If history repeats itself, look for Tennessee to struggle in their conference this year even with a favorable schedule. Some key games for the Lady Vols include:
vs. Kentucky on 1/10
vs. Notre Dame on 1/24
@ Mississippi State on 2/10
11. Oregon State-a team that's sure to be everyone's dark horse pick come tournament time, OSU has been respectable but not overwhelmingly impressive during non-conference play. Hard fought loss to Notre Dame, a not as well played loss against Texas A&M, close win over South Carolina, and they took care of business against everyone else. They have the same brutal stretch against:
@ Stanford 2/8
@ Cal 2/10
@ Oregon 2/15
vs. Oregon 2/18
That they'll need to win 1-2 games of if they want to secure a top 3 seed IMO. If they can get *some* production from their bigs against good teams, they can win big games. I think they're definitely a Final Four threat with Slocum/Rueck, but they need to make strides if they'll go on a run in March.
12. Minnesota-they had a great non conference run including a win over Syracuse. Whalen and Co are off to a great start and should face tougher foes in the Big 10 as the season gets rolling. They have 2 tough games coming up:
1/9 @ Michigan State
1/14 vs. Iowa
That will give us a clearer picture if Minnesota is worthy of a top 15-20 ranking or if they were over ranked due to a weak non-conference schedule.
13. Texas-their roster has had so many transfers and injuries (Prince, Patterson, Boothe, Higgs) but they came out of their non-conference run with just 2 losses to Tennessee and Mississippi State. Lots of questions with this squad though:
1. They are horrendous from deep
2. Their coach doesn't appear to be very good
3. What's the deal with Charli Collier?? She's not being utilized well.
Holmes being back in the mix should give this team a boost, but they're lighter on talent this year than they've been the last few, and I think a 2nd round or Sweet 16 exit from the tournament appears likely. A lot of teams right now in the Big 12 have fantastic records but conference play will separate the contenders vs. the pretenders. Biggest games are:
vs. Baylor on 2/4
@ Baylor on 2/25
14. Syracuse-they always seem to be decently tough but can't quite pull out wins against great teams (sans beating SC in the Sweet 16 in 2016). Their point guard is a joy to watch and this team is dangerous though. Big games in the back half of conference play are:
@ Louisville on 2/3
vs. NC State on 2/14
vs. ND on 2/25
15. Michigan State-out of nowhere Michigan State looks like it might be the class of the Big Ten. Haven't watched them this year but was really impressed with Allen last season, and it appears she's taken her game to a new level. Big Ten should provide some good competition for Michigan State. I think they'll likely finish as a 3-6 seed depending on how they do during these games:
vs. Minnesota 1/9
vs. Maryland 1/17
@ Iowa 2/19
@ Minnesota 3/3
16. Kentucky-did better than expected in their non-conference run and gave Louisville a tough game on the road. Their freshman, Howard, is really good and they only face Tennessee/Mississippi State one time each, although it is back to back games on the road. If they lose those, they'll need to clean up and do well against South Carolina (2 games) and Texas A&M (2 games). I think this team is a Sweet 16 threat, but don't see them as a Final Four threat.
@ Mississippi State 1/7
@ Tennessee 1/10
17. Gonzaga-beat Stanford and should run the table in the WCC. Only loss is to Notre Dame, should host first 2 rounds IMO. Dangerous team that has a Final Four sleeper feel to it. If they get put in the west regional, their fans will travel well to Portland, making them even more dangerous.
18. Cal-another inconsistent team...they play hard against UCONN and then lose to Harvard. Anigwe is having a great senior year and they could make noise in the PAC. Their stretch against Stanford/Oregon schools will be big for their chances to host the first 2 rounds.
19. Iowa-Gustafson is great, I think they're overrated though. They lost badly to Notre Dame and Michigan State...wouldn't be surprised if they finish 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten this year.
20. Marquette-another streaky team with a chance to host if they can win the Big East over DePaul. They looked really really good against Mississippi State. Very fast guards. Very dangerous team as a 4 or 5 seed in the tournament, chance at a 3 if they run the table going into the tournament.
21. Texas A&M-they're dangerous due to Carter alone. Carter is a polarizing player and can win or lose games for her team. I would not want them as a 4, 5, or 6 in my region if I'm a 1 or 3 seed. I don't think they have the horses to make a Final Four run, Elite 8 is the best outlook for this team. Realistically, 2nd round or Sweet 16 exit.
22. Arizona State-played Louisville and Baylor tough despite losing both games. They are not very good offensively. I think they're likely a 5-7 seed come tournament time and their ceiling is a Sweet 16.
23. South Carolina-they're a dangerous tournament team IMO with their guard play and Jennings coming along nicely. I don't think they're a Final Four threat, but I do think they have the best shot to beat Mississippi State in conference play of any team, and they'll be a dangerous 5, 6, or 7 seed in the tournament. Sweet 16 is their ceiling this year.
24. DePaul-they're always in the 18-25 range. They look like a 2nd round team once again that can make noise with its 3s but they're never going to be a dangerous team until they improve interior play.
25. Iowa State-played Iowa close, pretty light non conference besides that. Should get better tests in the Big 12. Not sure how to gage them right now.
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