Top 16 tonight | The Boneyard

Top 16 tonight

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My guess (last time):
  1. UConn (1)
  2. Baylor (2)
  3. Florida St (5)
  4. SC (3)
  5. Miss St (4)
  6. Notre Dame (7)
  7. Stanford (12)
  8. Washington (6)
  9. Maryland (9)
  10. Oregon St (8)
  11. Texas (10)
  12. Duke (11)
  13. Louisville (13)
  14. UCLA (14)
  15. DePaul (-)
  16. Tenn (-)
Close: Kentucky (15), Kansas St (-), Texas A&M (-)
Dropping out: Arizona St (16)
 
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Maryland won't stay at number 9. They might move up only one spot, but they'll move up. Washington lost to Stanford and beat an unranked Colorado team by just 4 points.
 

Plebe

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My guess (last time):
  1. UConn (1)
  2. Baylor (2)
  3. Florida St (5)
  4. SC (3)
  5. Miss St (4)
  6. Notre Dame (7)
  7. Stanford (12)
  8. Washington (6)
  9. Maryland (9)
  10. Oregon St (8)
  11. Texas (10)
  12. Duke (11)
  13. Louisville (13)
  14. UCLA (14)
  15. DePaul (-)
  16. Tenn (-)
Close: Kentucky (15), Kansas St (-), Texas A&M (-)
Dropping out: Arizona St (16)

How do you figure that Oregon State drops behind Maryland? Since the last reveal, OSU has picked up an RPI top-25 win over Arizona State and two wins over top-50 Oregon. Maryland's "good" wins in this period were over two teams hovering outside the top 50 (Iowa, Indiana).
 
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How do you figure that Oregon State drops behind Maryland? Since the last reveal, OSU has picked up an RPI top-25 win over Arizona State and two wins over top-50 Oregon. Maryland's "good" wins in this period were over two teams hovering outside the top 50 (Iowa, Indiana).

It's a tight section of the poll, and I'm guessing the committee wont want to move Maryland down.
 

DefenseBB

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My guess (last time):
  1. UConn (1)
  2. Baylor (2)
  3. Florida St (5)
  4. SC (3)
  5. Miss St (4)
  6. Notre Dame (7)
  7. Stanford (12)
  8. Washington (6)
  9. Maryland (9)
  10. Oregon St (8)
  11. Texas (10)
  12. Duke (11)
  13. Louisville (13)
  14. UCLA (14)
  15. DePaul (-)
  16. Tenn (-)
Close: Kentucky (15), Kansas St (-), Texas A&M (-)
Dropping out: Arizona St (16)
Here's the question I ask all BYers- really where does MD belong? They are a top 5 team no matter what the convoluted metrics say. Personally I put them ahead of SC & MSU at #4 with MSU #5. SC and ND 6 or 7. I still think Texas is better than any of the PAC12 teams (yes, I know Stanford won at start of season at home). Tenn SHOULD NOT BE 16!!!!
 

Plebe

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It's a tight section of the poll, and I'm guessing the committee wont want to move Maryland down.

So the committee will choose to move Oregon State down 2 spots just to avoid moving Maryland down 1 spot?
 
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Here's the question I ask all BYers- really where does MD belong?

And that's the problem with their scheduling. The rest of the top 10 has played top teams, so it's easier to get a sense of who is better than whom. But MD has not, and in effect is telling the committee to figure out how they are. Weak schedules make the committee's job harder, thus their reason for punishing them.

If I were voting, I'd probably go:
UConn / Bay / Fla St / Miss St / SC / MD / ND / Stan / Wash / Texas
 

Plebe

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My predictions are close to VG's, with a few daring (ha) changes:

1. UConn, 2. Baylor
3. SC, 4. Miss St, 5. FSU, 6. ND
7. Ore St, 8. Stanford, 9. Wash, 10. Maryland
11. Texas, 12. Duke, 13. Louisville, 14. UCLA
15. DePaul, 16. Kentucky

Although SC and MSU both lost, I'm resisting the temptation to move FSU ahead of them only because SC and MSU also picked up better wins than FSU did in the past 2 weeks. (FSU's game against Miami tonight won't be reflected in the reveal.) But the resumes of these teams #3-5 are TIGHT indeed.
 
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OFFICIAL RANKINGS
  1. UConn
  2. Baylor
  3. So Carolina
  4. Miss St
  5. Fla St
  6. ND
  7. Oregon St
  8. Stanford
  9. Maryland
  10. Washington
  11. Texas
  12. Duke
  13. Louisville
  14. UCLA
  15. NC St
  16. DePaul
 

ochoopsfan

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OFFICIAL RANKINGS
  1. UConn
  2. Baylor
  3. So Carolina
  4. Miss St
  5. Fla St
  6. ND
  7. Oregon St
  8. Stanford
  9. Maryland
  10. Washington
  11. Texas
  12. Duke
  13. Louisville
  14. UCLA
  15. NC St
  16. DePaul
What happened to the Lady Vols?
 

Nuyoika

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Glad they gave NC State some love. Like seeing some new blood in there. If that list holds up that means we would get Stanford, Duke & DePaul right?
 

Plebe

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OFFICIAL RANKINGS
  1. UConn
  2. Baylor
  3. So Carolina
  4. Miss St
  5. Fla St
  6. ND
  7. Oregon St
  8. Stanford
  9. Maryland
  10. Washington
  11. Texas
  12. Duke
  13. Louisville
  14. UCLA
  15. NC St
  16. DePaul

Momentary gloating: I got 1-14 right except I had Washington and Maryland flipped. :cool:
 

HuskyFan1125

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Did Andy Landers just call out Brenda Frese!??

Just said something like "Maryland can control it's out of conference schedule and that it's the control of the coach"
 

triaddukefan

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WOOHOO!! NCState made the list.

Hope yall get to host. It would give others the opportunity to see the new and improved Reynolds. I didnt get a chance to make it this year.... hope I can get there in 2019
 

Plebe

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What happened to the Lady Vols?

They're probably just on the outside of the hosting bubble, probably a high 5-seed. Their resume is very comparable to NC State's: both teams have a bipolar mix of outstanding wins and disappointing losses. But NC State has 4 wins over the top 13 (compared to TN's 3 wins over the top 10) and their losses (worst two were to Tulane and UNC) haven't been quite as bad as Tennessee's (Penn State, Ole Miss and Georgia).
 
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If I were voting, I'd probably go:

UConn / Bay / Fla St / Miss St / SC
MD / ND / Stan / Wash / Texas

Revised:
UConn / Bay / Fla St / Miss St / SC
MD / ND / Texas / Stan / Wash
 

Plebe

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Revised:
UConn / Bay / Fla St / Miss St / SC
MD / ND / Texas / Stan / Wash

You really take a dim view of Oregon State, huh? :cool:
 

Plebe

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They have beaten the two P12 teams you have ranked ahead of them. I'm guessing that's a major reason the committee has OSU ahead of both Washington and Stanford.
 

Phil

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I'm going to try playing contrarian.

The media is in lockstep declaring that Maryland is being punished for its weak schedule. I think a case can be made that the committee has bumped them up considerably, by underplaying their schedule weakness.

Let me 'splain.

A long time ago, the NCAA decided that they didn't want to encourage teams running up the score to puff up their rankings (as an aside, is that a legitimate function of the NCAA?) so they invented a measure, the RPI, which explicitly excludes margin of victory (MOV). Presumably, they weren't smart enough to figure out how to devise a metric which incorporates MOV without overly encouraging blowouts.

As is well-known, the RPI is a horrendous metric early in the season, and gets better throughout the season. By the time of the Selection decision, it isn't horrible, although it is deficient,

The Selection Committee does look at a whole host of numbers, but explicitly claims to ignore the two major polls, perhaps deluding themselves into thinking that the Selection Committee might not look at the polls.

The RPI, as is well known, has three component, one of which is your own record, another component (weighted the largest) based upon your opponents records, and another component based on their opponents records.

Maryland was ranked 19 in the RPI at the time of the first reveal, and has climbed all the way to 17 yesterday,

They were ranked 9th in this first reveal, and again last night.
This means that the selection committee isn't over-weighting SOS as you might think based upon media reports, but deliberating under-weighting it.

I don't mean to suggest that the committee has to blindly follow the RPI – there would be no need for a committee if you simply followed a formula, but by assigning Maryland to the ninth position, they are starting with the position suggested by RPI and adjusting it based upon other factors to get to position 9. Those factors, whatever they are, result in a material upward move relative to RPI. They may be looking at the eye test, or wins over highly ranked teams, and deliberately giving more weight than would be given by the RPI.

The media talks as if the starting point is the #3 ranking in the human polls, and that the committee is adjusting downward based upon some factor such as SOS.

That isn't the case, they start with a 19 or 17 ranking and move the team materially up.

We can debate whether the move up is enough, too much or not enough. If we think they deserve to be higher, it ought to re-open the debate about the RPI. (But it won't)
 

UcMiami

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I'm going to try playing contrarian.

The media is in lockstep declaring that Maryland is being punished for its weak schedule. I think a case can be made that the committee has bumped them up considerably, by underplaying their schedule weakness.

Let me 'splain.

A long time ago, the NCAA decided that they didn't want to encourage teams running up the score to puff up their rankings (as an aside, is that a legitimate function of the NCAA?) so they invented a measure, the RPI, which explicitly excludes margin of victory (MOV). Presumably, they weren't smart enough to figure out how to devise a metric which incorporates MOV without overly encouraging blowouts.

As is well-known, the RPI is a horrendous metric early in the season, and gets better throughout the season. By the time of the Selection decision, it isn't horrible, although it is deficient,

The Selection Committee does look at a whole host of numbers, but explicitly claims to ignore the two major polls, perhaps deluding themselves into thinking that the Selection Committee might not look at the polls.

The RPI, as is well known, has three component, one of which is your own record, another component (weighted the largest) based upon your opponents records, and another component based on their opponents records.

Maryland was ranked 19 in the RPI at the time of the first reveal, and has climbed all the way to 17 yesterday,

They were ranked 9th in this first reveal, and again last night.
This means that the selection committee isn't over-weighting SOS as you might think based upon media reports, but deliberating under-weighting it.

I don't mean to suggest that the committee has to blindly follow the RPI – there would be no need for a committee if you simply followed a formula, but by assigning Maryland to the ninth position, they are starting with the position suggested by RPI and adjusting it based upon other factors to get to position 9. Those factors, whatever they are, result in a material upward move relative to RPI. They may be looking at the eye test, or wins over highly ranked teams, and deliberately giving more weight than would be given by the RPI.

The media talks as if the starting point is the #3 ranking in the human polls, and that the committee is adjusting downward based upon some factor such as SOS.

That isn't the case, they start with a 19 or 17 ranking and move the team materially up.

We can debate whether the move up is enough, too much or not enough. If we think they deserve to be higher, it ought to re-open the debate about the RPI. (But it won't)
I think your premise falls down at the start because the committee definitely uses the RPI but they don't 'start' with it. They probably start with record for P5 plus BE and ACC teams (and anyone else should they stand out clearly), then check head to heads and SOS, and then start making adjustments based on RPI. Elon for example has the 27th RPI and I can promise you no one is thinking of them getting a five or six seed and Temple, Creighton, and Kansas State (21-23 RPI aren't likely to get 4-5 seeds)
 

CBear01

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I'm going to try playing contrarian.

The media is in lockstep declaring that Maryland is being punished for its weak schedule. I think a case can be made that the committee has bumped them up considerably, by underplaying their schedule weakness.

Let me 'splain.

A long time ago, the NCAA decided that they didn't want to encourage teams running up the score to puff up their rankings (as an aside, is that a legitimate function of the NCAA?) so they invented a measure, the RPI, which explicitly excludes margin of victory (MOV). Presumably, they weren't smart enough to figure out how to devise a metric which incorporates MOV without overly encouraging blowouts.

As is well-known, the RPI is a horrendous metric early in the season, and gets better throughout the season. By the time of the Selection decision, it isn't horrible, although it is deficient,

The Selection Committee does look at a whole host of numbers, but explicitly claims to ignore the two major polls, perhaps deluding themselves into thinking that the Selection Committee might not look at the polls.

The RPI, as is well known, has three component, one of which is your own record, another component (weighted the largest) based upon your opponents records, and another component based on their opponents records.

Maryland was ranked 19 in the RPI at the time of the first reveal, and has climbed all the way to 17 yesterday,

They were ranked 9th in this first reveal, and again last night.
This means that the selection committee isn't over-weighting SOS as you might think based upon media reports, but deliberating under-weighting it.

I don't mean to suggest that the committee has to blindly follow the RPI – there would be no need for a committee if you simply followed a formula, but by assigning Maryland to the ninth position, they are starting with the position suggested by RPI and adjusting it based upon other factors to get to position 9. Those factors, whatever they are, result in a material upward move relative to RPI. They may be looking at the eye test, or wins over highly ranked teams, and deliberately giving more weight than would be given by the RPI.

The media talks as if the starting point is the #3 ranking in the human polls, and that the committee is adjusting downward based upon some factor such as SOS.

That isn't the case, they start with a 19 or 17 ranking and move the team materially up.

We can debate whether the move up is enough, too much or not enough. If we think they deserve to be higher, it ought to re-open the debate about the RPI. (But it won't)

I very much like your well thought out post. I do not think that many have looked at it the way you describe.

However, I'd like to add, that to me it seems the "committee" and whoever decides this 16 ranking have simply indicated by their projections that if Maryland shall jump higher on this list then they will need to beat teams ranked higher than them. And, unfortunately they haven't. And they do not face the likes of most of these teams in the remaining schedule. On to the tournament they shall go and their seeding is of their own creation (and whomever put together the schedule ;))
 

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