Timing, timing, timing | The Boneyard

Timing, timing, timing

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Gotta hand it to Houston, they are peaking at the right time. They will ride this win into at least the top 10, possibly top 5, and then enjoy much of the season in the national spotlight right as B12 expansion is being deliberated.

Tom Herman will move on to LSU and Houston will drop back to an average team, but their timing was perfect to get the B12 invite.
 
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I can actually see where this might help them with other conferences, and hurt with the big 12.
 
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I think it's the recruiting issue more than anything. It's already an "overfished" area, and another Texas school is not going to help them at all.
Big12 coaches are complaining about losing recruits to Houston; Adding the Cougars will only make this worse; Keeping them G5 will result in Head Coach leaving and improved recruiting for current Big12 programs.
 
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B12 will get a lot of fan and media pressure to add UH. The political pressure is already on for Texas schools who will be voting. As has been mentioned - if UC and BYU were the top 2 choices, hopefully this will open the door to expand by 4 and include UH and UConn.

This gives Big 12 - academics, football, basketball (M+W) and numbers in case Texas and OU split in a few years.
 
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B12 will get a lot of fan and media pressure to add UH. The political pressure is already on for Texas schools who will be voting. As has been mentioned - if UC and BYU were the top 2 choices, hopefully this will open the door to expand by 4 and include UH and UConn.

This gives Big 12 - academics, football, basketball (M+W) and numbers in case Texas and OU split in a few years.

That is kind of what I am thinking. When the Big 12 initially discussed expanding, the networks pushed back because they didn't want the league to get watered down with inferior teams. Hard to argue right now that Houston is an inferior team. The problem for Houston is that they don't do anything to address the long term problems facing the Big 12; Houston doesn't expand the footprint and it is uncertain how many cable boxes it adds.

This might make it easier for the Big 12 to expand by 4. Add a good football team in Houston, and add a some teams that increase viewership (like UConn).
 
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Problem is, someone else, such as the ACC, can consider eventually adding Houston.
 
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Problem is, someone else, such as the ACC, can consider eventually adding Houston.

How is that a problem? If the ACC adds them it means the the Big 12 didn't. Which is good for us.

Also, Houston would likely need a partner if they join the ACC, that could be us.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Can we have a separate Realignment Board for people who think Realignment is primarily about on the field success in football? If a single game was decisive in Realignment, UConn would be in the ACC right now on the strength of their victory over Louisville days before the ACC switched from UConn to Louisville as it final choice for a new member.
 
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Can we have a separate Realignment Board for people who think Realignment is primarily about on the field success in football? If a single game was decisive in Realignment, UConn would be in the ACC right now on the strength of their victory over Louisville days before the ACC switched from UConn to Louisville as it final choice for a new member.
That or the Big12 could host a football playoff with top 2 teams earning an invite.
 
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Can we have a separate Realignment Board for people who think Realignment is primarily about on the field success in football? If a single game was decisive in Realignment, UConn would be in the ACC right now on the strength of their victory over Louisville days before the ACC switched from UConn to Louisville as it final choice for a new member.
Did you actually read my post? Houston is now likely to be a top 5-7 team ALL SEASON. That's not going to help their case?
 

junglehusky

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Can we have a separate Realignment Board for people who think Realignment is primarily about on the field success in football? If a single game was decisive in Realignment, UConn would be in the ACC right now on the strength of their victory over Louisville days before the ACC switched from UConn to Louisville as it final choice for a new member.
Who the B12 invites will not be determined by a single game, of course. But on-field success has to be a part of the equation when they (or the consultants, to be more precise) evaluate each athletic department's potential. For all the reporting that's been done on evaluation criteria, we still don't know how the criteria will be weighted in the final analysis (though we did see academics weight heavily in the first round of cuts).

Another point worth making is that what the B12 presidents eventually decide, and what narrative ESPN and national (and local) sports media ascribe to the B12 decision, may be completely different. I.e., if hypothetically the B12 invites Houston because Texas really wants that Houston campus, you just know Kirk Herbstreit, Reece Davis and all their colleagues are going to do extra puff pieces on Tom Herman and put Tilman Fertitta quotes on screen during pre-game and probably in the middle of games too.
 
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Winning matters. Perception matters. When a team is fun to watch and win big games, people watch. When people watch more, it matters to media companies.

While I don't believe one season or one game will decide a team's fate, a winning team certainly does not hurt. That's why UConn has to show something in the coming games.
 

junglehusky

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Winning matters. Perception matters. When a team is fun to watch and win big games, people watch. When people watch more, it matters to media companies.

While I don't believe one season or one game will decide a team's fate, a winning team certainly does not hurt. That's why UConn has to show something in the coming games.
Honestly, I think it's too late. If we have a great season this year it won't get buzz until november at the earliest and supposedly the decision will come by mid-October. It might even be too late for Houston, they only have 1-1.5 seasons to point to and I think you want sustained success. Even though they plateaued / slight downward trend, I think Cincy has the best case to say they would be a consistent program.

Pasqualoni/Hathaway really duck***ed us. Damn.
 
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Did you actually read my post? Houston is now likely to be a top 5-7 team ALL SEASON. That's not going to help their case?

No question UH's on the field success is definitely helping their opportunities. Every sports writer and dumb Big12 fan will be screaming about adding the hottest program in America. We should give UH full credit. They are winning the big games and stepping up when they have opportunities. The UConn football program needs to match this intensity.

But ask yourself why was the Big12 considering expansion? Was it because their football programs were so weak? No, it was because the Big12 was falling behind in revenue in spite of their on the field success. Why were they falling behind in revenue? Because the Big12 has too small a geographic footprint with too much of their population base in Texas.

Does a UH addition provide more stability to the Big12? Will OU or UT agree to extend the GORs in return for UH being added? (FWIW as soon as either UT or OU says they will commit by signing extended GORs for a UH addition then UH is in but this has not publicly happened yet) Does UH increase the Big12's geographic footprint? If you ask Texans one can never own enough Texas but the Big12 is already testing that notion without UH. Will UH increase the academic rating/perception for the Big12? Will a UH add help attract new students to the Big12 schools? Will a UH addition provide new markets for viewership and growth? Will adding UH allow the Big12 to move toward a potential network or allow a bigger TV deal when the Big12 GORs expire? Will a UH addition allow UT to gain more control of the conference and insure it has enough minions to support its top dog status? Is UH the kind of university that other university presidents want to be associated with? Finally, are WVU, OSU, KSU, KU, and ISU prepared to compete/recruit with an equal status UH on the football field?

Personally I think UH is becoming the team the Big12 cannot publicly afford to pass on but cannot financially afford to select if they are part of a 2 team deal. IMO UH's football success only makes a 4 team addition more possible. UH has the "sizzle" but does not accomplish the other factors above...but a UConn, BYU, UC, and UH addition would meet all the marks.

The point is Big12 expansion is a lot more complicated than a pure football product and it is tough to predict how UH's football success will affect things...No question UH's football success is helping their candidacy but this does not mean it is necessarily hurting UConn's chances. This is not the same situation as Louisville and the ACC.
 
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No question UH's on the field success is definitely helping their opportunities. Every sports writer and dumb Big12 fan will be screaming about adding the hottest program in America. We should give UH full credit. They are winning the big games and stepping up when they have opportunities. The UConn football program needs to match this intensity.

But ask yourself why was the Big12 considering expansion? Was it because their football programs were so weak? No, it was because the Big12 was falling behind in revenue in spite of their on the field success. Why were they falling behind in revenue? Because the Big12 has too small a geographic footprint with too much of their population base in Texas.

Does a UH addition provide more stability to the Big12? Will OU or UT agree to extend the GORs in return for UH being added? (FWIW as soon as either UT or OU says they will commit by signing extended GORs for a UH addition then UH is in but this has not publicly happened yet) Does UH increase the Big12's geographic footprint? If you ask Texans one can never own enough Texas but the Big12 is already testing that notion without UH. Will UH increase the academic rating/perception for the Big12? Will a UH add help attract new students to the Big12 schools? Will a UH addition provide new markets for viewership and growth? Will adding UH allow the Big12 to move toward a potential network or allow a bigger TV deal when the Big12 GORs expire? Will a UH addition allow UT to gain more control of the conference and insure it has enough minions to support its top dog status? Is UH the kind of university that other university presidents want to be associated with? Finally, are WVU, OSU, KSU, KU, and ISU prepared to compete/recruit with an equal status UH on the football field?

Personally I think UH is becoming the team the Big12 cannot publicly afford to pass on but cannot financially afford to select if they are part of a 2 team deal. IMO UH's football success only makes a 4 team addition more possible. UH has the "sizzle" but does not accomplish the other factors above...but a UConn, BYU, UC, and UH addition would meet all the marks.

The point is Big12 expansion is a lot more complicated than a pure football product and it is tough to predict how UH's football success will affect things...No question UH's football success is helping their candidacy but this does not mean it is necessarily hurting UConn's chances. This is not the same situation as Louisville and the ACC.

Agreed. UH in the b12 means they are going to take 4, which means we will definitely be one of the 4. UConn, cincy, UH, and BYU should be the ending game for the b14 if they want any chance of long term stability. No expansion or going to 12 just means OU and Texas are gone in 2024.
 
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Points about yesterday's game on ABC (ESPN): Was billed as watching the American Conference on ESPN throughout the telecast.
Announcers were speculating throughout the game about this victory enhancing Houston's chances to get a XII invite.
Then they brought up the recruiting factor: How Houston only has to recruit in @ a 25 mile radius of its campus while members of the XII need a radius of @ 300 miles. They were talking about this being a great competitive advantage for the Cougars.
If ESPN is supposedly against XII expansion, why give all the love to the Coogs? Flies in the face of their corporate strategy.
 

UConnDan97

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Big12 Rep 1: "We just lost 12 million dollars worth of revenue by choosing the wrong school. "

Big12 Rep 2: "Yeah, but remember that time they beat Oklahoma?"

Big12 Rep 1: "Yeah....I'd rather have the 12 million. "

Big12 Rep 2: "Yeah....me too..."
 
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Points about yesterday's game on ABC (ESPN): Was billed as watching the American Conference on ESPN throughout the telecast.
Announcers were speculating throughout the game about this victory enhancing Houston's chances to get a XII invite.
Then they brought up the recruiting factor: How Houston only has to recruit in @ a 25 mile radius of its campus while members of the XII need a radius of @ 300 miles. They were talking about this being a great competitive advantage for the Cougars.
If ESPN is supposedly against XII expansion, why give all the love to the Coogs? Flies in the face of their corporate strategy.

If ESPN can't stop the Big 12 from expanding, it will have to market and televise games involving the new Big 12 schools. Makes sense to start the marketing now. Privately ESPN might think expansion waters down the league, publicly they have to sell the expansion as a positive thing.
 

CL82

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Can we have a separate Realignment Board for people who think Realignment is primarily about on the field success in football? If a single game was decisive in Realignment, UConn would be in the ACC right now on the strength of their victory over Louisville days before the ACC switched from UConn to Louisville as it final choice for a new member.
I agree with you in general, however, Houston just eviscerated the myth that any of the G5 would be crushed in the Big 12. In essence they identified themselves as being B12 ready, in a lot of ways. One game isn't going move you from undesirable to desirable, but if you are on the cusp, one game can change impressions.

One wonders if UT administration was only paying lip service to Houston thinking that they'd obviously be shot down, saw the score and went "aw crap."
 
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I agree with you in general, however, Houston just eviscerated the myth that any of the G5 would be crushed in the Big 12. In essence they identified themselves as being B12 ready, in a lot of ways. One game isn't going move you from undesirable to desirable, but if you are on the cusp, one game can change impressions.

One wonders if UT administration was only paying lip service to Houston thinking that they'd obviously be shot down, saw the score and went "aw crap."

What the Big 12 has to decide is if Houston's success is a flash in the pan, or part of a sustained pattern. I remember when Navy had a few good basketball seasons in the mid-80's; it wasn't because Navy was about to emerge as a college basketball power, it was because they had a recruit named David Robinson. When Elena Delle Donne left UConn she went back to Delaware and the Delaware women's team had their best seasons ever.

Houston's on field performance certainly isn't hurting it's chances of a Big 12 invite, but I think the sample set is too small at this point to get too excited.
 
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Houston's on field performance certainly isn't hurting it's chances of a Big 12 invite, but I think the sample set is too small at this point to get too excited.

That's an entirely reasonable and rational point of view. Unfortunately, perception matters a lot here. Houston football has a lot of sex appeal right now, much like Louisville did around 2012. We have zero.

These university presidents are going to have to defend their decisions to their fan bases and media. Are they going to want to answer to why they passed up Top 10 and upward-trending Houston (regardless of whether it can be sustained) in favor of yawn-inducing UConn?
 
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