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Three Point FG Defense

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diggerfoot

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I brought up the point in another thread that the amount of threes taken, rather than the percentage of threes made, is a better indication of three point FG defense. Ideally a team wants to make the highest percentage shot that they can, though you get an extra point for making a three. A team "settles" for threes at a greater rate if they are relatively good at making them or they have no better option given the defense they faced. SJU likes the three and our defense led to a shooting percentage under 30% overall. Unless the game was being slowed down, that means SJU should have been seeking to maximize the # of three point shots they were taking.

With a shout out to the stats kept by JRRRJ. UConn averages 10 threes taken during a half over 31.5 attempts. Opponents have taken 8 threes with the same amount of attempts. SJU took 9 threes in the first half, one more than the average for opponents, yet this was out of 34 attempts. As a percentage this was one point greater than the average (26% v. 25%) for this year, but much less than what our own balanced offense takes for threes (32%), and less than the average for opponents in previous years. Our defense on average makes taking the three difficult and our performance against SJU in the first half was close to that average.

However, I understand how the "eye test" suggests otherwise. SJU made 4 out of 9, a high percentage, though only a little over 1 extra three per half than average. Also consider SJU's sterling 2.0 A/T ratio for the game. SJU ran their offense patiently and well, let's give them a little credit here. They couldn't shoot nearly as many threes as a team like them should strive for in the first half, but they converted well. In reality, it was a good job on both sides.
 
The stats always tell me a lot before and after the game about trends. During the game I do prefer the eye test having watched and studied many offenses and defenses I lock in on flow. It tends to make me one of those silent observers that doesn't contribute a lot to crowd noise.
 
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St. Joe's did convert well. Yes they had some open 3's (ex: see Danny K's photos) but they also made a number of very tough shots from beyond the arc, under "duress." I was surprised more than a few times to see the ball going cleanly through the hoop.
 
St. Joe's did convert well. Yes they had some open 3's (ex: see Danny K's photos) but they also made a number of very tough shots from beyond the arc, under "duress." I was surprised more than a few times to see the ball going cleanly through the hoop.

Very true.
 
I recall two of Shields' three point attempts were highly contested and deep. I too was surprised they went in. Good shooter.
 
40% on threes is equivalent to 60% on twos, no? No team shoots 60% against us, nowhere it. So if that's all we're giving them uncontested they may as well shoot as many threes as possible. In reality, rarely does anyone make 40% on threes against us, so we may as well defend inside to perfection and tolerate their threes attempts. No matter how well we defend we can't cover everything.
 
I would rather give up some threes than have two starters on the bench with 3 fouls.
 
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