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Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26
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[QUOTE="Rooster C., post: 5328390, member: 10168"] Virginia is next. Overall Virginia had some slight improvement over the previous year. They were unranked going in to the season and finished it unranked as well. Their season came to an end in the ACC tournament where they defeated Pitt and then lost to Cal in the next round by 17. Amaka Aguagua-Hamilton has done a fairly good job at Virginia so far especially considering where they were when she took over. Her overall win pct is .667 and .352 in conference. That doesn't sound great for an in conference record but she has improved each year of the 3 years she's been there from (15 - 15/ 4 -14) year one to (16 -16/ 7 - 11) year two to (17 - 15/ 8 - 10) last year. Where do they go this year ? Is more improvement in conference play possible ? Perhaps. What was lost : The biggest loss is obviously the 2 starters L. Lattimore (Gr. 6'4" F 14.3ppg) to Ole Miss and E. Noyan from Sweden (Jr. 6'3" F 5.7ppg) to Indiana. Also lost was reserves T. Lauterbach (6'7" C 2.7ppg) to graduation and C. Valenti-Paea from Australia (Gr. 5'9" G) to the portal (Grand Canyon) as well as P. Dunbar (So. 5'11" G) transferred to Providence. What returns: Coach Aguagua-Hamilton is in good shape with her 3 returning starters : Leading scorer K. Johnson( Jr. 5'7" G 17.9ppg), P. Clark (Sr. 5'8" G 10.3ppg), and O. McGhee (Jr. 6'2" G 7.7ppg). Also back is first player off the bench B. Hurd (So. 6'2" F 9.4ppg). And that's it - 4 returning players. Incoming transfers : 8 players. They are R. Dias Dos Santos (rs Sr. 5'9" G 2.6ppg) from rival FSU via Brazil, J. Brown (Gr. 5'11" G 5.7ppg) from NW, C. Weimar (Gr. 6'4" F 18.7ppg) from NC ST(sort of), R. Levy (Gr. 6'3" G/F 7.1ppg) from S.Fla./Israel, D. Arigabu (Gr. 6'4" F 3.0ppg) from W.V./Germany, T. Amanze (Sr. 6'4" F 6.0ppg) from Princeton/Nigeria, S. Smith (rs Jr. 6'2" F 6.6ppg) from LSU, and A. Ring (So. 6'5" F 3.7ppg) from UCF/Australia. Quite the TALL international group ! Incoming freshmen: #94 G. White (5'10" G). Clearly Aguagua-Hamilton's best recruiting year was her first with two ranked players/starters in #24 K. Johnson and #45 O. McGhee. Adding #21 ranked P. Clark to the roster 2 years ago from AZ and #38 L.Lattimore from the portal last year from Miami. Last year's recruit #99 B. Hurd has been an important addition. Unfortunately as she's continued to improve her record slightly each year her recruiting has gone the other direction. Two players ranked #24 and #45 to one player ranked #99 to this year also with one player ranked #94. If she can't reverse that trend in 2026 - and all signs point to it being unlikely - she will have to live and die with the portal. And speaking of the portal I confess I don't understand what she's going after this year - 6 players that play the power forward/center position ?! And 6 players who will not be returning after the season ends?! While she'll probably be okay this year with a solid core of 4 players/3 starters returning and maybe even next year if everything goes just right - after that she'll start to run in to trouble. It's difficult enough combining 8 incoming players but when they're from 6 different cultures and 6 of them will be fighting for minutes at essentially the same position? A LOT can go wrong over the course of a season. My best guess is we'll see returning starters K. Johnson and P. Clark in the back court along with J. Brown from NW. Dos Santos will come in off the bench along with Hurd seeing extensive minutes again as "6th man" but they are one injury away from being in serious trouble in the back court. Last year Virginia ran with 2 front court players in Lattimore and Noyan with Lauterbach off the bench. With those 3 gone I'd expect a similar line up this year. Most likely it will be some combo of Amanze/Levy/Smith with Arigbadu and Ring seeing limited minutes. If this team gels early enough they could improve once again. The returning core is solid and experienced and K. Johnson is a special talent. Smith has a lot of untapped upside and Levy and Amanze are decent players with lots of experience. I didn't mention Weimar because her best year was 2 years ago at Boston U. She has been injured since then and hasn't played against this level of competition yet so she's a complete unknown/wild card. But unless she's THE dominant big early on I can't see where she gets any playing time. I think fewer bigs and more guards/wings would have been more helpful and also more players who weren't just one year rentals. I think that would have added more stability to the program. They will be competitive this year no doubt but it's difficult to see them making any kind of a leap forward when at best they will have pretty much the same team as last year. As with many ACC teams this coming year a handful of games will decide their fate. Consistency and progression will be key. I would expect a similar finish to last season somewhere between 8th and 12th. [/QUOTE]
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