things i think are going on

[Dann]

1) the b10 push for more than 16. it came recently. and it really exploded into the media with several b10 ppl all of a sudden mentioning it. really out of nowhere. 18 was nothing but a dream and prediction for loser like myself before. now it kinda seems possible. why? i think the b10 has been in talks with the ncaa/bcs for a while about what its going to take to have a 2nd round of the ccg. i think 16 was the popular end number from JS comments back in the 90's and seemd to be the goal all along so the b10 with its b10n setup and wish list(which is deep compared to the sec) is making a power play. i think that the ncaa/bcs is going to make a ccg semi rule if your league has over 18 teams. so the bench marks now will be 12 and 18.

think about it now, you can go to 18 or 20 team confs, have a 8 or 9 game division schedule. the top 2 from the division play to see who goes to the ccg to play the other divisions winner. talk about max incentory and big games and all that. it allows for 1 extra big time game to be played at a schools field that year which helps the conf overall also.

2) the b10 raiding the acc for members isn't going to kill the acc. the acc will never die. the acc will be the 4th best conf. the b10 by raiding the acc is actually killing the b12. u have to see thru it. what the b10 is doing is forcing the pac to figure out how to become friends with texas and crew. by the b10 going big the pac needs to go big. big like tex/tt/ok/okst/kan/kst big. the b12 gor can be broke 2moro by a school leaving, its just home game rights that need to be settled. but each year that goes by, that $ number settlement becomes less and less. the b10 is trying to force 3 big boy leages and a 4th(the acc) to be a lesser brother who can get a team in the playoff with a great year at large bid style.

3) the sec has over and over said it doesn't want to go past 16. but when a 18 team conf gets a 2nd ccg semi rule in play, the sec will then go big. but the sec doesn't have a wishlist thats as deep as the b10 unless they expand within its own foorptint. what the b10 is doing is forcing the sec to expand to hit # of teams without really boosting $. the b10 adds $ with team like ruty/md/uva/unc/gteck etc. those are new footprints. the sec would be doubling down in footprints. fsu? they bring value but that market is alreayd covered enought by bama and fl where its not a huge gain for the sec. same with a gtech type. the b10 is really king right now and quietly molding the landscape and theres nothing the sec can do besides land unc to stop it.

4) this is why for all the talk of nd, unc is the biggest piece to the puzzle. unc holds the key to which of the b10 or sec will be the big winner. they either get the b10 a huge southern footprint or they get the sec a huge footprint where the b10 stays away.

5) the b12 wont expand. texas doesn't want a lville or cincy or uconn and never will. texas knows that it would rather go to the pac before it expands. with the b10 forcing the issue, it will ultimately kill the b12. the sec becuase of this will just quietly wait. it know vt and ncst are always there for 16 if unc goes north. it also knows that fsu or miami will always be there. but the sec can grab a tcu or baylor and gain a footprint in texas. tcu makes more sense market wise. the sec could easily grab vt/ncst/tcu/fsu for 18. thats 4 quality adds and the sec will do well with that for 18, but its a loser compared to the adds the pac and b10 made. thats the point of the b10 forcing things. they see blood in the water and see where they can tilt scales. right now the sec is king on the field. give the b10 some southern footprint and recruit grounds and things change rather quickly. the sec could even go to 20 with wvu and another fl school(miami) or another school elsewhere to match a 20 team b10. but no matter where they go the adds are not of quality that the b10 or pac got.

6) the acc will always have some combo of private schools and left over nbe schools like lville and cincy and maybe uconn. but they will be a clear 4th which is fine, just be happy to be at the party.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

but the sec doesn't have a wishlist thats as deep as the b10 unless they expand within its own foorptint.

If they needed to get to 18, they could add:

1. UNC/NC State
2. Virginia Tech
3. Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
4. West Virginia
5. Kansas

All quality adds that expand their footprint. They aren't as 'geographically limited' as you suggest.

 

[The Funster]

I can buy 2-6 but I don't get point #1. Adding an extra layer of conference playoffs might add revenue for the two extra games. The downside is adding an extra layer of games may mean that the best team from your conference might not get a seed in the new playoff structure and the team that does make it, won't have an optimal seed.

 

[Dann]

If they needed to get to 18, they could add:

1. UNC/NC State
2. Virginia Tech
3. Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
4. West Virginia
5. Kansas

All quality adds that expand their footprint. They aren't as 'geographically limited' as you suggest.

-what market does kansas bring that the sec doesn't already have?
-ok will go with texas all day and they will keep okst with them just like tex-tt. those 4 are a package.

 

[Dann]

I can buy 2-6 but I don't get point #1. Adding an extra layer of conference playoffs might add revenue for the two extra games. The downside is adding an extra layer of games may mean that the best team from your conference might not get a seed in the new playoff structure and the team that does make it, won't have an optimal seed.

a semi ccg bring big $ to tv contract for inventory and high ratings. the $ is there. we already know this. that why leagues went big to start with. if the $ wasn't there the b10 never needed a 12th and neither did the pac. its all about $.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

-ok will go with texas all day and they will keep okst with them just like tex-tt. those 4 are a package.

Everyone said the same thing about Texas A&M for the past 5 years...we see how that worked out. At what point would Oklahoma State saw they have had enough and take an opportunity at the SEC like aTm did? Not out of the question in my mind.

 

[Dann]

Everyone said the same thing about Texas A&M for the past 5 years...we see how that worked out. At what point would Oklahoma State saw they have had enough and take an opportunity at the SEC like aTm did? Not out of the question in my mind.

atm has had sec eyes since the early 90s. ppl claimed that the 3 would stick together but when tex didn't move atm left. atm wasn't happy with the lhn. ttech is not worth squat to the pac or sec without texas. so texas govt will make sure ttech goes with texas where ever it goes. atm has value on its own. ok-okst, kan-kst, usc-clem, are the same types of deals. ist being seperate from iowa kills them longrun and same with clemson possibly.

 

[Dann]

7) i think that swofford is going to make a strong attempt to save it all very quick here. i think hes going to call uconn, cincy and temple or memphis or usf and talk about adding them. i think hes going to shake uconn and cincy up and get them on board for 16. by doing so he can put a gor in place and make it extremely tuff for acc schools to leave in the next 5-10 years. same thing with what the b12 has accept the acc will have a longer lasting gor now and they will be at 16 already vs 10 for the b12. if swofford can pull this off it may save the acc and make it a 4 conf race with all having horses for good. he could potentially hang the b10/sec out to dry at 14 and make them wait on the b12 gor to die off in years dwon the road. would be a huge move by him.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

7) i think that swofford is going to make a strong attempt to save it all very quick here. i think hes going to call uconn, cincy and temple or memphis or usf and talk about adding them. i think hes going to shake uconn and cincy up and get them on board for 16. by doing so he can put a gor in place and make it extremely tuff for acc schools to leave in the next 5-10 years. same thing with what the b12 has accept the acc will have a longer lasting gor now and they will be at 16 already vs 10 for the b12. if swofford can pull this off it may save the acc and make it a 4 conf race with all having horses for good. he could potentially hang the b10/sec out to dry at 14 and make them wait on the b12 gor to die off in years dwon the road. would be a huge move by him.

So let me get this straight...all of the southern ACC schools who currently want nothing to do with an ACC GOR are going to now agree to a GOR because they are adding UConn and Cincinnati?! If anything, adding UConn/Cincy to the ACC would only make a GOR less likely.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

7) i think hes going to call uconn, cincy and temple or memphis or usf and talk about adding them. i think hes going to shake uconn and cincy up and get them on board for 16.

Shake uconn and Cincy up and get them on board?! Are you kidding?! There is no shaking needed. If they want UConn/Cincy, they would have us immediately....there is no 'scare tactic' needed!

 

[Dann]

So let me get this straight...all of the southern ACC schools who currently want nothing to do with an ACC GOR are going to now agree to a GOR because they are adding UConn and Cincinnati?! If anything, adding UConn/Cincy to the ACC would only make a GOR less likely.

no they do the gor becuase they can keep the band together(unc/uva/gtech/vt/ncst/clem/fsu) and with more teams and a gor they get more $ from espn to the point that b12 $ is the same and its somewhat competitive with the sec/b10. the gor froces nd other sports in or out and also forces nd 5 fball games a year into play as a lock. then one day if it ever comes where nd has to join a conf the acc has them by the balls a bit to start with.



another thing. the nbe president has several times when talking about the nbe mentioned teams like cincya nd temple but not uconn. considering the news of cincy begging the acc, isn't it even more wierd that he wont mention uconn but hes willing to mention cincy who is #beggingharder to anyone who will listen???? uconn simply is not part of that nbe contract....

 

[Dann]

Shake uconn and Cincy up and get them on board?! Are you kidding?! There is no shaking needed. If they want UConn/Cincy, they would have us immediately....there is no 'scare tactic' needed!

shaking cincy lose is easy, uconn not so much. we are patient becuase we see multiple possibilities to fit in somewhere.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

shaking cincy lose is easy, uconn not so much. we are patient becuase we see multiple possibilities to fit in somewhere.

In your head only. Not in reality. If the ACC called right now, we would accept the offer before Herbst even picked up the phone. If you think otherwise, you are just either being naive or thick-skulled.

 

[UConn Dan]

In your head only. Not in reality. If the ACC called right now, we would accept the offer before Herbst even picked up the phone. If you think otherwise, you are just either being naive or thick-skulled.

I think Herbst would call Delany first and say if you don't offer today we all go elsewhere. Then we would go to ACC. Ha

 

[pj]

To match the B12 they need about $22 mn each for Cincy and UConn plus an additional $5 mn or so for the 14 existing ACC teams = $114 mn per year. Why should ESPN pony up that much money, which is what it offered a few years ago for the entire Big East?

If it made sense for ESPN to give the ACC extra money to keep it from dissolving, they can do without demanding that UConn and Cincy be added. So the issues of GoR/survival and UConn/Cincy are separable.

We also know that schools like FSU considered UConn and Cincy unattractive. If the ACC is unstable with the current 14, they're still unstable with the 14 + UConn + Cincy.

 

[RS9999X]

I think everything is on hold pending the Maryland lawsuit. The decision could change the landscape and establish a new legal precedent on these long term conference slavery agreements.

 

[Dann]

To match the B12 they need about $22 mn each for Cincy and UConn plus an additional $5 mn or so for the 14 existing ACC teams = $114 mn per year. Why should ESPN pony up that much money, which is what it offered a few years ago for the entire Big East?

If it made sense for ESPN to give the ACC extra money to keep it from dissolving, they can do without demanding that UConn and Cincy be added. So the issues of GoR/survival and UConn/Cincy are separable.

We also know that schools like FSU considered UConn and Cincy unattractive. If the ACC is unstable with the current 14, they're still unstable with the 14 + UConn + Cincy.

the gor is what brings the $. its espn/acc getting those rights for lenght of years that brings the $. the acc has 14 schools right now and nd. of those cuse, pitt, bc, duke, wake, miami and lville would love to sign a gor. thats 7 of your 14. its arguable if other would or wouldnt. but if u add uconn or cincy or both, thats 2 more teams that would want to sign a gor. majority. gor goes in place and if your not signing it then its leave now or stfu. thats where the $ is at and thats swoffords last ditch.

the md lawsuit is messy. bc went thru it and so did wvu. the acc is holding md's $ right now. if they just hold md's $ for this year and next year its like $25mil alone. the acc may not get another penny after that and md walks for $25mil. doesn't matter when your making 40mil a year in the b10 and that wont stop uva types from also following md. but a gor will. atleast for the 1st half of the gor before the $ to buy out the rights comes back to earth a bit and by then things are different. see the b12 now. it lives on a gor for a bit. then a couple years form now texas will decided if it likes the b12 or it wants the pac.

uconn and or cincy tip the scales voting wise which ='s gor which ='s $ from espn. thats the game.

i think the fsu hates uconn or cincy was all hype from the internet.

 

[HuskyHawk]

-what market does kansas bring that the sec doesn't already have?
-ok will go with texas all day and they will keep okst with them just like tex-tt. those 4 are a package.

Mizzou in KC is about like Rutgers in NY. Plus national basketball brand to pair with Kentucky. That said:

KU would never go to the SEC. Very much not southern. B1G or PAC would be the options.

The SEC should only move for UNC or UT. Nobody else is worth the effort.

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[tzznandrew]

Mizzou in KC is about like Rutgers in NY. Plus national basketball brand to pair with Kentucky. That said:

KU would never go to the SEC. Very much not southern. B1G or PAC would be the options.

The SEC should only move for UNC or UT. Nobody else is worth the effort.

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I don't really buy this. I think the SEC would benefit from getting into North Carolina and Virginia. I think they are as west as they should go, but adding some teams further up the eastern seaboard wouldn't be a bad investment. There are a lot of eyes in those two states.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't really buy this. I think the SEC would benefit from getting into North Carolina and Virginia. I think they are as west as they should go, but adding some teams further up the eastern seaboard wouldn't be a bad investment. There are a lot of eyes in those two states.

OK let me clarify. I think the SEC could take UNC and a VA school or say UT and OU. But I don't see it making a move without a big impact school.

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[tzznandrew]

VT is a better football school than UVa, and State has been better than UNC. So I see what you're saying, I just don't think the SEC cares. I think they'd prefer UNC, but won't be so choosey.