The Waiting Game

[UConnDan97]

So it's late in the day on Saturday, the day when Boise State needs to announce something to the MW or face a steeper penalty. In typical conference realignment fashion, we are past the 11th hour. I was pondering all of the scenarios that could result from this, and I came up with the following:

Scenario I: Boise State goes to the Big West at the last minute, with some Big East cash to push it over the "straw vote" that has been holding them out. (The Big West is clearly playing hardball for a big sum of cash from the Big East right now)

Scenario II: Boise State lets the MW penalty period lapse and pays the higher penalty, but makes a more controlled decision on its olympic sports. It gives them time to either try to rebuild the WAC (which would require SDSU to go with them, along with Utah Valley State and one other school to get to 8 schools), convince the Big Sky (which would require convincing Commissioner Fullerton who is skeptical about bringing them in), or convince the Big West.

Scenario III: Boise State goes back to the MW. The Big East pays SDSU 1 million (as per the contract) and tells them "no thanks". SDSU joins the MW also (leaving the Big West to suck it).

Scenario IV: The Big East either tries to build a western wing for all sports or offers to be the temporary home for Boise's olympic sports until another conference can be determined (both scenarios are somewhat disastrous, in my humble opinion).

I'm sure there are scenarios V, VI, etc. These seem to be the likely outcomes. I suppose I will know a great deal more about the likelihood of all of them in about 5 hours. What do you think about this?

 

[observer]

So it's late in the day on Saturday, the day when Boise State needs to announce something to the MW or face a steeper penalty. In typical conference realignment fashion, we are past the 11th hour. I was pondering all of the scenarios that could result from this, and I came up with the following:

Scenario I: Boise State goes to the Big West at the last minute, with some Big East cash to push it over the "straw vote" that has been holding them out. (The Big West is clearly playing hardball for a big sum of cash from the Big East right now)

Scenario II: Boise State lets the MW penalty period lapse and pays the higher penalty, but makes a more controlled decision on its olympic sports. It gives them time to either try to rebuild the WAC (which would require SDSU to go with them, along with Utah Valley State and one other school to get to 8 schools), convince the Big Sky (which would require convincing Commissioner Fullerton who is skeptical about bringing them in), or convince the Big West.

Scenario III: Boise State goes back to the MW. The Big East pays SDSU 1 million (as per the contract) and tells them "no thanks". SDSU joins the MW also (leaving the Big West to suck it).

Scenario IV: The Big East either tries to build a western wing for all sports or offers to be the temporary home for Boise's olympic sports until another conference can be determined (both scenarios are somewhat disastrous, in my humble opinion).

I'm sure there are scenarios V, VI, etc. These seem to be the likely outcomes. I suppose I will know a great deal more about the likelihood of all of them in about 5 hours. What do you think about this?

Or, the Big12 raids the BE because the ACC teams they coveted have all said 'NO'.

So Boise to the Big 12 along with the 'ville:

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-lo...argets-thanks-to-the-college-football-playoff

 

[UConnDan97]

Or, the Big12 raids the BE because the ACC teams they coveted have all said 'NO'.

So Boise to the Big 12 along with the 'ville:

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-lo...argets-thanks-to-the-college-football-playoff

And you believed that column of crap?? If the Big12 wanted Boise State and the Ville, all they have to do is ask. Simple as that. Same goes for them getting Cincy, or hell, even UConn for that matter. They had every opportunity to grab those teams when they grabbed WVU. I suspect that Texas....I mean, the Big12...only wants to expand further than 10 if ND is involved in some way. They're not.

Now, back on topic. Which scenario out of the four I've presented, or a fifth that involves Boise State's decision making process (not the Big12's), makes the most sense?

 

[TRest]

I'm not convinced that Boise adds enough at this point to make playoff and BCS bowl access any easier. Sure they have become a "brand name" in football but the rest of their athletic program is weak enough to concern me about long-term viability.

 

[UConnDan97]

...but the rest of their athletic program is weak enough to concern me about long-term viability.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. They are only coming for football-only, so their other sports don't affect us (they wouldn't affect football playoffs anyways). Are you referring to a Big East western division for olympic sports (scenario IV)?

 

[Jerry27]

I'm not convinced that Boise adds enough at this point to make playoff and BCS bowl access any easier. Sure they have become a "brand name" in football but the rest of their athletic program is weak enough to concern me about long-term viability.

Couldn't the same have been said about us? We built a strong athletic department off of our MBB and WBB success and continue to do so. The recent HE invitation comes to mind. No reason to believe Boise St. couldn't build their other programs around the great success of their FB team. Obviously there is the potential to do so.

I am thinking either a Scn. V or and addition to Scn. III where if they decide to stay put in th MW that the BE adds two teams to get back to 12 conf. members. Now back to the old, old, old question; Which two teams would replace them?

 

[UConnDan97]

Couldn't the same have been said about us? We built a strong athletic department off of our MBB and WBB success and continue to do so. The recent HE invitation comes to mind. No reason to believe Boise St. couldn't build their other programs around the great success of their FB team. Obviously there is the potential to do so.

I am thinking either a Scn. V or and addition to Scn. III where if they decide to stay put in th MW that the BE adds two teams to get back to 12 conf. members. Now back to the old, old, old question; Which two teams would replace them?

Great points. I guess, HYPOTHETICALLY (since I really really want Boise to stay), I would think that we would add two of the following teams, in order of preference: BYU / / ECU / Southern Miss.

Scenario IV, the Big East olympic west scenario, really does scare the hell out of me. It waters down the image of our terrific men's and women's basketball, as well as men's and women's soccer and some other sports where we have really shown to be top notch. Hell, even our baseball with UConn, Louisville, USF, St. John's, and Notre Dame is pretty solid too. I would hate to see all of our olympic sport prowess melt away to save the football product on what would still be possibly a short-term move.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How did we get to this point? No one anticipated this problem?

I think the Big East should have expanded to 16 and enabled a separate but affiliated new conference in the west with Boise, SDSU, BYU, AFA and whoever plus St. Mary's, Gonzaga and whoever. That would be a far superior alternative to where we are now, in some kind of standoff over an extortion payment to a jerkoff league like the Big West.

 

[UConnDan97]

The news is getting even weirder! Here is a report from Chris Maathius (I have no idea who he is, but he is from a CBS affiliate) saying that Boise is going to stay in the MW, but then it goes on to quote Brian Murphy (of the Idaho Statesman) who is saying that Boise hasn't told the MW squat and that an announcement might be on hold until Monday. WTF???

http://www.mwcconnection.com/2012/6...staying-in-mountain-west-according-to-a-repor

 

[TRest]

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. They are only coming for football-only, so their other sports don't affect us (they wouldn't affect football playoffs anyways). Are you referring to a Big East western division for olympic sports (scenario IV)?

All their eggs are in one basket, so now they are willing to ship all other sports to a half-ass conference like the Big West. I would rather see a strong and vibrant athletic department, good across the board. There are reasons, besides laughable academics, that other conferences aren't knocking on their door. What happens after a few down years in football? TCU was a gamble, one that took a lot of people a while to embrace. And were attractive enough in accomplishments and location to get back to the big leagues.

 

[Srqhusky]

Maybe they will be granted an extension. I assume if no news on them putting their other sports In another conference hasn't been heard they r not coming. Really other than it being a cool roadtrip and seeing them in the rent a few times we really don't need them. They might provide some strength of schedule help though

 

[FfldCntyFan]

It is quite possible that the terms of officially announcing is similar to most conventional business transactions where if a deadline (think income taxes) falls on a weekend or holiday, the deadline automatically moves to the next business day.

 

[UConnDan97]

Maybe they will be granted an extension. I assume if no news on them putting their other sports In another conference hasn't been heard they r not coming. Really other than it being a cool roadtrip and seeing them in the rent a few times we really don't need them. They might provide some strength of schedule help though

As to the extension, I have no idea how these things work. As to whether or not we need them, we ABSOLUTELY need them! Not only do they give us instant credibility and image control (which seems to be the only thing that matters in FBS and not actual performance....for more on that, see the ACC), but they also give us a nice boost in strength-of-schedule calculations that we will certainly need if we want to have any thoughts at all about making it into a four team playoff scenario. No, there is no doubt that we need them. After the recent playoff scenario, we need them more than ever. And they need us ($$$). The question is whether or not the exit penalty takes away the $$$...

 

[Jerry27]

Great points. I guess, HYPOTHETICALLY (since I really really want Boise to stay), I would think that we would add two of the following teams, in order of preference: BYU / / ECU / Southern Miss.

Scenario IV, the Big East olympic west scenario, really does scare the hell out of me. It waters down the image of our terrific men's and women's basketball, as well as men's and women's soccer and some other sports where we have really shown to be top notch. Hell, even our baseball with UConn, Louisville, USF, St. John's, and Notre Dame is pretty solid too. I would hate to see all of our olympic sport prowess melt away to save the football product on what would still be possibly a short-term move.

I think with Boise St. and SDSU that BYU and would make sense, but alone? I'm not sure that either bring the same thing to the table as Boise St. does. BYU is close and more well rounded of an athletic department but without Boise St. I don't think they would be interested, not to mention that they passed on the BE with Boise St. ECU and Southern Miss and Tulsa did however cross my mind.

 

[RS9999X]

11:30 PM EST and not a peep on any web site......

 

[UConnDan97]

11:30 PM EST and not a peep on any web site......

I hear ya. I nearly crapped myself when I heard that the CBS Las Vegas affiliate aired on tv today that Boise is staying put in the Mountain West, based on their unnamed sources. The only reason I haven't yet crapped myself is because the beat-writer for Boise (Murphy) has said that Boise State has not made any official decision, as per his contacts.

I'm not sure who to believe, but I guess if it was a battle between Desmond Connor and some sports tv announcer for the CBS Boston affiliate, I would still give Dez the benefit of the doubt. Let's hope their beat writer is correct...

 

[UConnDan97]

On a related note, why the hell does everything having to do with the Big East happen to be heartwrenching, last-minute, ill-prepared, and absolutely frustrating?!? How the hell have all the parties involved let it come to this moment in time??? And that includes Boise State's top brass! Why the hell is Kustra not saying anything? Why have they waited this long and put millions of dollars more at risk?

I'm just frustrated with the whole thing. I want conference realignment to just go away, to be quite honest....

 

[TRest]

On a related note, why the hell does everything having to do with the Big East happen to be heartwrenching, last-minute, ill-prepared, and absolutely frustrating?!? How the hell have all the parties involved let it come to this moment in time??? And that includes Boise State's top brass! Why the hell is Kustra not saying anything? Why have they waited this long and put millions of dollars more at risk?

I'm just frustrated with the whole thing. I want conference realignment to just go away, to be quite honest....

It looks like Boise has been hedging its bets the whole time. It wanted to see what the new playoff scenario looked like then weigh going to the BE against staying in an all-sports conference. Still, it would be very costly for them to miss the deadline and still go to the BE now.

On a side note regarding expansion, the Eers boards are celebrating official entrance into the B12 partially by shatting all over their former conference.

 

[UConnDan97]

It looks like Boise has been hedging its bets the whole time. It wanted to see what the new playoff scenario looked like then weigh going to the BE against staying in an all-sports conference. Still, it would be very costly for them to miss the deadline and still go to the BE now.

On a side note regarding expansion, the Eers boards are celebrating official entrance into the B12 partially by shatting all over their former conference.

I think you're right about the Boise strategy. As for the Eers, they have been shatting over their former conference since Oliver Luck made his first press release. They have been doing it on multiple sites too, including ESPN's Big East blog, where their fans seem to post at 3x the frequency of any other existing BE team. Damn, their fans are annoying as hell! Here's to hoping they somehow get stuck in Big12 mediocrity...

 

[TRest]

I think you're right about the Boise strategy. As for the Eers, they have been shatting over their former conference since Oliver Luck made his first press release. They have been doing it on multiple sites too, including ESPN's Big East blog, where their fans seem to post at 3x the frequency of any other existing BE team. Damn, their fans are annoying as hell! Here's to hoping they somehow get stuck in Big12 mediocrity...

Some posts around now that Boise has officially withdrawn, no working links. The Eers found success once the programs above them left the BE, things won't be so easy in the B12.

 

[DSquiz]

We are good!

According to the Las Vegas Review Boise just sent in there withdraw from the MW.

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/boise-state-beats-deadline-will-leave-mountain-west-160977565.html

 

[Dann]

Party!

 

[Srqhusky]

I like the way the article starts. As expected .. How ironic as they waited till the last second. But nonetheless. Welcome Boise to the big east.

 

[UConnDan97]

We are good!

According to the Las Vegas Review Boise just sent in there withdraw from the MW.

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/boise-state-beats-deadline-will-leave-mountain-west-160977565.html

If I could have given you 10 "likes", I would have! Nice find. And this source is a school president from a Mountain West university, so it's almost as good as the signed document. Ironic that it comes out of the same city whose CBS affiliate went on the air tonight and said that Boise was staying in the MW. What a crazy crazy football world...

 

[UConnDan97]

I like the way the article starts. As expected .. How ironic as they waited till the last second. But nonetheless. Welcome Boise to the big east.

Welcome to the Big East, indeed! Glad to have you, Broncos!!