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I have largely not gotten into discussions about how I expect us to play this season. Why? Because this season is so completely unprecedented that anyone who thinks they really know something about how this will go is blowing smoke up everyone's butt. But this is what I know:
1. As a full blown apologista (if you haven't been on this board for at least a decade, look it up) HCRE 2.0 has been an utter disaster for three years (I'm not counting last year as anything). Unacceptable record, unacceptable computer rankings, unacceptable product on the field, and in the second year literally the worst defense in the history of college football, and probably by a lot.
2. That having been said, and as frustrating and enthusiasm-draining as it was, while the magnitude of the disaster was worse than anyone hoped, the fact that it was going to be a really ugly rebuild should have surprised no one. When you combine a roster that was just not anywhere near a FBS level, a conference situation that was dreadful and a coach who everyone should have understood (both from his first tenure here and at Maryland) was not going to put in place shortcuts to squeeze out an extra win or two the first few years, but was going to build the program his way, those three years were going to be really really bad. Could a better coach -- heck, maybe even a different coach playing more for the short term -- squeezed out an extra win or two, by not imposing his will on the program but trying to give more snaps to upperclassmen not buying into the program but still better than HCRE's first few classes of youngsters? Absolutely. But the University knew who they were hiring and what the plan was. It is what it was.
3. So what do I expect this year, now that Edsall is in his 5th year of coaching our roster? Frankly, I expect that we will be significantly better. What will that mean on the field? With the year off, with the lack of a conference, with a schedule that has a good number of games that I don't think we'll be competitive in, frankly, I don't know. Do I expect to start winning games against FCS clubs more easily than we have since Edsall left the first time? Yes. Do I expect to be limited to zero or 1 wins against FBS opponents? No, I don't. But we've been so bad for so long, that wins and losses alone really won't tell the story. No more than Fiasco squeezing out a 6-6 record with 5 wins against horrendous teams in 2015 told us anything. The eye test is subject to differing interpretations, but I expect to be materially better in the computer rankings than we were. So what will tell me we're on track? At a minimum, I need 4 wins and a 25-30 point jump in computer rankings. I'd like much better, but a jump of that level will at least make me hope we're on the right track. And hopefully the eye test makes me think those numbers aren't a mirage.
4. While our offense has been far from good enough under HCRE2.0, it has been Texas Tech compared to our defense. We need to be competent defensively. I don't need us to be good yet. But I need our defense to not be a total joke. The fact that players who I thought were among our best defenders two years ago may not be starters this year gives me hope. On offense, I think the "it's all about the QB mentality" caused people to be way too harsh on Zergiotis two years ago. This kid walked onto campus HAVING NEVER PLAYED A GAME OF AMERICAN RULES FOOTBALL WITH 11 PLAYERS and showed some moxie and some talent. In home games. On the road, saying he played like a deer in headlights would be diminishing the capacity of a deer stuck in headlights to make a decision. But, he was a true freshman from another country. I'm guessing that 2 years later we'll see more of the moxie and talent and less fear and mistakes. I think we'll be o.k. at the skill positions. The OL -- based on what we've seen, who knows, but given HCRE's history I'm guessing two years to develop folks can get us to competent.
5. This will be our first season as an independent. I did not think it was a good long term play. Now, it didn't hurt recruiting, and it might have so far benefitted recruiting. But I still think the difficulty in making schedules and the lack of the intensity of playing a conference schedule for a conference championship is going to hurt us long term. Hope I'm wrong, but of course none of that will become clear this season. And between the independence, the being horrific for so long, and now the increasing threats from the pandemic, I'm not even going to predict if anyone will be showing up at home games. Frankly, I'm not totally sure I am o.k. being in that large a crowd yet. Not going to make that decision until after SAturday's game. (And I'm not going to panic if we get blown out. Fresno is a better squad and a better program, at home, with less rust than us. We will all need to give this a few weeks to really know where we are.)
Here's hoping.
1. As a full blown apologista (if you haven't been on this board for at least a decade, look it up) HCRE 2.0 has been an utter disaster for three years (I'm not counting last year as anything). Unacceptable record, unacceptable computer rankings, unacceptable product on the field, and in the second year literally the worst defense in the history of college football, and probably by a lot.
2. That having been said, and as frustrating and enthusiasm-draining as it was, while the magnitude of the disaster was worse than anyone hoped, the fact that it was going to be a really ugly rebuild should have surprised no one. When you combine a roster that was just not anywhere near a FBS level, a conference situation that was dreadful and a coach who everyone should have understood (both from his first tenure here and at Maryland) was not going to put in place shortcuts to squeeze out an extra win or two the first few years, but was going to build the program his way, those three years were going to be really really bad. Could a better coach -- heck, maybe even a different coach playing more for the short term -- squeezed out an extra win or two, by not imposing his will on the program but trying to give more snaps to upperclassmen not buying into the program but still better than HCRE's first few classes of youngsters? Absolutely. But the University knew who they were hiring and what the plan was. It is what it was.
3. So what do I expect this year, now that Edsall is in his 5th year of coaching our roster? Frankly, I expect that we will be significantly better. What will that mean on the field? With the year off, with the lack of a conference, with a schedule that has a good number of games that I don't think we'll be competitive in, frankly, I don't know. Do I expect to start winning games against FCS clubs more easily than we have since Edsall left the first time? Yes. Do I expect to be limited to zero or 1 wins against FBS opponents? No, I don't. But we've been so bad for so long, that wins and losses alone really won't tell the story. No more than Fiasco squeezing out a 6-6 record with 5 wins against horrendous teams in 2015 told us anything. The eye test is subject to differing interpretations, but I expect to be materially better in the computer rankings than we were. So what will tell me we're on track? At a minimum, I need 4 wins and a 25-30 point jump in computer rankings. I'd like much better, but a jump of that level will at least make me hope we're on the right track. And hopefully the eye test makes me think those numbers aren't a mirage.
4. While our offense has been far from good enough under HCRE2.0, it has been Texas Tech compared to our defense. We need to be competent defensively. I don't need us to be good yet. But I need our defense to not be a total joke. The fact that players who I thought were among our best defenders two years ago may not be starters this year gives me hope. On offense, I think the "it's all about the QB mentality" caused people to be way too harsh on Zergiotis two years ago. This kid walked onto campus HAVING NEVER PLAYED A GAME OF AMERICAN RULES FOOTBALL WITH 11 PLAYERS and showed some moxie and some talent. In home games. On the road, saying he played like a deer in headlights would be diminishing the capacity of a deer stuck in headlights to make a decision. But, he was a true freshman from another country. I'm guessing that 2 years later we'll see more of the moxie and talent and less fear and mistakes. I think we'll be o.k. at the skill positions. The OL -- based on what we've seen, who knows, but given HCRE's history I'm guessing two years to develop folks can get us to competent.
5. This will be our first season as an independent. I did not think it was a good long term play. Now, it didn't hurt recruiting, and it might have so far benefitted recruiting. But I still think the difficulty in making schedules and the lack of the intensity of playing a conference schedule for a conference championship is going to hurt us long term. Hope I'm wrong, but of course none of that will become clear this season. And between the independence, the being horrific for so long, and now the increasing threats from the pandemic, I'm not even going to predict if anyone will be showing up at home games. Frankly, I'm not totally sure I am o.k. being in that large a crowd yet. Not going to make that decision until after SAturday's game. (And I'm not going to panic if we get blown out. Fresno is a better squad and a better program, at home, with less rust than us. We will all need to give this a few weeks to really know where we are.)
Here's hoping.
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