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Message: [QUOTE="businesslawyer, post: 4426883, member: 55"] I think this is a decent discussion about computer rankings. I would add two points as to why computer models may be (in my view) substantially underrating us. 1. The models don’t adjust, or don’t adjust enough, for more recent results. We obviously have been a different team from the Fresno State win, but we’re still weighted down by the three straight blowouts. 2. While many models “compress” blow outs, and pay less attention to the difference between losing by 30 and 35 then they do the difference between winning by 5 and 10, they may not compress results enough. Did we really learn anything from what happens in the Michigan, Syracuse and NC State games after the outcome was decided? The line against Army, to me, is absurd. If I were in Vegas this week instead of last week, I would place the single largest bet I have ever placed, as to me this is more of a pick ‘em game. Why do the computers start Army as favorites? Largely for these factors. We get no credit for the improvement we’ve made during the season, and the models are impressed by how easily Army blew out opponents in its unimpressive wins versus how badly we lost three games we had little chance in. To me, neither of those factors has much bearing on what should be expected Saturday, and even working hard to see it I don’t see why anyone thinks Army is going to beat us handily. [/QUOTE]