The trend on 538 after 8 games

[DobbsRover2]

Naturally the better seed are winning the majority of the games, though there have been some minor upsets, but so far every team that was given a 60% or better chance of winning has indeed won. The two favorites who had less than 60% chance, #6 seedWashington (58%) and #7 seed Northwestern (57%), have lost. Another #7 seed Dayton was given a 70% chance.

Of course Duke could have blown this trend completely out of the water if Greenwell hadn't hit a late 3, as the Devils were a 93% favorite.

For the rest of the day if this trend continues, Syracuse (52%) and George Washington (52%) will lose among the favored higher seeds. In an odd case, Minnesota as a #8 seed is given only a 23% chance of beating #9 seed DePaul, and the favored underseed Blue Demons should win.

 

[j66kicker]

SportsCenter just gave Las Vegas odds on UCONN vs. the field (any team other than UCONN wins):

UCONN = -450 (must bet $450 to win $100)
Field = +375 ($100 bet wins $375)

Line on UCONN vs. SFBK is UCONN by 51. Over/under is 124-1/2.

 

[iri10]

If I were the betting type, I'd definitely take the Field with a smallish ($20 or so) amount of money. My winnings would be a small consolation prize.

Incidentally, I'm a bit of a glass half empty type of fan, and to be honest, all of this stuff is making me nervous. I don't like UConn being "anointed" by ESPN articles, NYT articles, etc., before they've even played a tournament game, sensible though it seems. It gives me bad mojo vibes.

 

[HGN]

If I were the betting type, I'd definitely take the Field with a smallish ($20 or so) amount of money. My winnings would be a small consolation prize.

Incidentally, I'm a bit of a glass half empty type of fan, and to be honest, all of this stuff is making me nervous. I don't like UConn being "anointed" by ESPN articles, NYT articles, etc., before they've even played a tournament game, sensible though it seems. It gives me bad mojo vibes.

I'm with you on that Iri10......I want UConn to win it but I don't want anyone giving the opposition any bulletin board stuff.

 

[cabbie191]

I'm with you on that Iri10.I want UConn to win it but I don't want anyone giving the opposition any bulletin board stuff.

I agree with both you and Iri but honestly, I don't think any opposing team's coach needs any bulletin board material beyond a photo of DT tugging out her jersey!

 

[OneTrickPony]

If I were the betting type, I'd definitely take the Field with a smallish ($20 or so) amount of money. My winnings would be a small consolation prize.

Hedge fund...

 

[DobbsRover2]

So only Syracuse was able to break the "less than 60%" factor with their 72-69 win over Neb. In Saturday's games, only Chattanooga (59%) and FGCU (59%) are just barely under the mark, but Ohio State is right at 60%. UConn could be a close one too because the percentage is a little shy of 100%.

Agree on the "UConn the anointed" publicity as being annoying, though mainly because it cheapens the huge effort that is needed to win an NC despite the favorable odds. Many hugely favored teams have not been able to close the deal, and the last two UConn teams to enter the Tourney with 1 loss did not win NCs.

Put another way, Massey Predictions not only gives a likely score prediction but also assigns a "chance of winning" percentage for both teams. UConn's chance of winning the Tourney in 538 is between 74% and 75%, and for a single game in Massey that equates to an 8 point win, say 68-61. GW was given a 73% of winning its game against Gonzaga yesterday and lost by 13. So UConn's 74% for the Tourney is not as overwhelming as it may seem, though I'm not sure how much their 9-0 record in NCs should up that percentage with a little "extra special aura" factor.