The threshold for success at UConn

[shizzle787]

I have been a UConn fan for my entire three decades of life on this planet, and there is one thing I know to be true of this program: getting to at least the second weekend is the measure of success.

Sure, we all want a 5th title, but if we get to the second weekend, almost no one will call that a failure.

Sweet 16 or better: success
Bowing out in the first weekend or worse: failure

I give Hurley a pass for the first two years as we were in the American. We are now back in the Big East, a power league that is one of the top 4 leagues in the country. We are the top brand in said league. There is no excuse for not being one of the top two to three teams in the league almost every year, and there is no excuse for not making the second weekend three or four out of five seasons. I understand the occasional NIT year, but a 70% second-weekend rate is the way it should be.

Hurley is 0-2 in this endeavor. UConn is not supposed to lose in the first weekend let alone the first round. I would rather bow out at the BET and even miss the NIT than lose in the first weekend. It screams weakness. We are a program and brand known for performing in March and April no matter the seed. We traditionally over perform relative to seed. With Hurley, we have underperformed. We don't root for Purdue; we root for UConn.

There are many reasons why this team is failing right now, but playing a non-conference schedule with only 2 out of 11 good teams killed us. It is not our fault Oregon, Okie State, and Florida are NIT teams, but it is our fault we did not schedule two more high-major programs and four cupcakes instead of six cupcakes. There is a reason the Big 12 is killing it. Their schools played the most major conference opponents per school of any league. That (and winning many of those games) is why their league is so good. They challenge themselves. Second was the Big East, and notice in the Big East who is good right now and how they were challenged themselves: especially Marquette, Creighton, and Xavier. They all took their lumps against really good teams, and are better for it. Not only that, those home games are better for their fanbases. UConn has a 40 million athletic deficit (not counting Ollie settlement). You know a great way to help that. Schedule a home and home series with a regional rival like Syracuse, an old Big East foe like Notre Dame, or a high-level program like Arizona.

All in all, the season was starting great and I thought Hurley may have turned the corner, but I honestly doubt it. This is a Round of 64 team. That is unacceptable.

 

[navery12]

You've made this point about 10 times tonight in 10 different threads. Did this really need a new thread to say it again?

 

[UCFan1513]

Yup… concerning trends all around. Don’t really see any positive trends right now, other than making UConn a top 25 team a few years in a row

Looks like we’re flaming out again. Hurley contract extension through 2027 starting to look pretty questionable. That’s 4 more seasons after this! Benedict may have shot himself in the foot again with the premature extension

Culture building and better recruiting was great to pull us out of the gutter. But four more years of being a middling team could get ugly

 

[shizzle787]

You've made this point about 10 times tonight in 10 different threads. Did this really need a new thread to say it again?

Yes.

 

[UCFan1513]

Yup… concerning trends all around. Don’t really see any positive trends right now, other than making UConn a top 25 team a few years in a row

Looks like we’re flaming out again. Hurley contract extension through 2027 starting to look pretty questionable. That’s 4 more seasons after this! Benedict may have shot himself in the foot again with the premature extension

Culture building and better recruiting was great to pull us out of the gutter. But four more years of being a middling team could get ugly

And for everyone pointing to the recruiting class, Hurley hasn’t proven a thing with all the great players he’s recruited. We have the preseason player of the year, a couple potential freshmen of the year, and an NBA talent shooting guard and we’re imploding. To heck with bringing in more talent if Hurley can’t build a winning team around the immense talent he already has. Let’s hope pressure makes diamonds

 

[HuskyFich]

There are many reasons why this team is failing right now, but playing a non-conference schedule with only 2 out of 11 good teams killed us. It is not our fault Oregon, Okie State, and Florida are NIT teams, but it is our fault we did not schedule two more high-major programs and four cupcakes instead of six cupcakes.

I disagree with this. Cupcakes help you establish rotations and chemistry. 5-6 per season is a good number.

 

[UCFan1513]

I disagree with this. Cupcakes help you establish rotations and chemistry. 5-6 per season is a good number.

Agree, but we used those cupcakes to establish the wrong rotations. That’s on the coach. Plenty of teams play cupcakes and our KenPom sos is like 20th in the nation last I checked. Sanogo can look great against a 6’4” center from Cowdick Texas and reaffirm to Hurley that the offense needs to run through him.

Even in the secret scrimmage against Virginia (according to Dauster) their equipment manager (I’m being facetious, but nobody knows who the mole was) said something to the effect of “UConn can’t be a highly competitive modern team running their offense through Sanogo. It’s not going to work.” And Hurley was still too dense to realize it. Players aren’t being put in a position to succeed and that’s frustrating

 

[HuskyFich]

Agree, but we used those cupcakes to establish the wrong rotations. That’s on the coach. Plenty of teams play cupcakes and our KenPom sos is like 20th in the nation last I checked. Sanogo can look great against a 6’4” center from Cowdick Texas and reaffirm to Hurley that the offense needs to run through him.

Even in the secret scrimmage against Virginia (according to Dauster) their equipment manager (I’m being facetious, but nobody knows who the mole was) said something to the effect of “UConn can’t be a highly competitive modern team running their offense through Sanogo. It’s not going to work.” And Hurley was still too dense to realize it. Players aren’t being put in a position to succeed and that’s frustrating

So we’re complaining about too many cupcakes with the #20 ranked SOS?

 

[UCFan1513]

So we’re complaining about too many cupcakes with the #20 ranked SOS?

I’m not complaining at all. I’m complaining that hurley was dense to stick to his lineup that only worked in cupcake games and a handful of early season games before the scout got more developed

 

[shizzle787]

So we’re complaining about too many cupcakes with the #20 ranked SOS?

It's not #20. Not even close.

 

[HuskyFich]

It's not #20. Not even close.

Good call, it’s actually 15…

 

[UCFan1513]

It's not #20. Not even close.

Including conference play it’s 15. OOC it was 193. Definitely weak in OOC, but weird hill to die on when the team is imploding under a coach who refuses to change. With a stronger schedule we would have just lost sooner in the year and knew what we had, then proceeded to lose these games too. You can blame scheduling but that’s toward the bottom of the list

 

[Huskyforlife]

Who should we hire then? Oats isn’t coming, Pikell isn’t either. You fire Hurley after this season, you lose the recruiting class, our best players likely bolt, and it’s a full blown rebuild. Is that better than the situation we’d find ourselves in if we continue with Hurley? What’s our alternative?

 

[shizzle787]

Good call, it’s actually 15…

View attachment 83186

Ken Pom is predictive. RPI is actual: we are 64th.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Men's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

And we are 44th out of the 76 major conference schools.

 

[shizzle787]

Who should we hire then? Oats isn’t coming, Pikell isn’t either. You fire Hurley after this season, you lose the recruiting class, our best players likely bolt, and it’s a full blown rebuild. Is that better than the situation we’d find ourselves in if we continue with Hurley? What’s our alternative?

Xavier blew out Steele, and most of the players stayed and their best recruit stayed. Why should it be any different here? Also, Pikiell would 1000% take the job.

 

[UCFan1513]

Who should we hire then? Oats isn’t coming, Pikell isn’t either. You fire Hurley after this season, you lose the recruiting class, our best players likely bolt, and it’s a full blown rebuild. Is that better than the situation we’d find ourselves in if we continue with Hurley? What’s our alternative?

I think it’s ride it out next year, and if Hurley can’t win with the returning talent and a top 5 recruiting class then he’s not gonna be able to win with anyone, so he’s shown his true colors

 

[HuskyFich]

Ken Pom is predictive. RPI is actual: we are 64th.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Men's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

And we are 44th out of the 76 major conference schools.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but RPI only determines SOS by wins and losses, not actual production metrics.

 

[shizzle787]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but RPI only determines SOS by wins and losses, not actual production metrics.

Kind of. The NET has our SOS at 14, but our non-con SOS at 71. Again, not great for major conference school.

 

[HuskyFich]

Kind of. The NET has our SOS at 14, but our non-con SOS at 71. Again, not great for major conference school.

So…

NET: 14
KenPom: 15
RPI: 64

Also, non conference has been affected by Oregon, Okie St, and Florida drastically underperforming.

Feels like you’re Cherry picking a bit

 

[aburks41]

Xavier blew out Steele, and most of the players stayed and their best recruit stayed. Why should it be any different here? Also, Pikiell would 1000% take the job.

Pike hasn’t exactly been crushing it at Rutgers. I know, tough place to win in a tough conference, but he’s not really any different than Hurley. Guys like Musselman, Oats, Pearl, Sean Miller, etc are in a clear tier above coaches like Hurley and Pike. Hurley is a great recruiter and has saved the program from the depths of hell, I’m sure he’s feeling the pressure right about now. Next year’s recruiting class better not be a flop like our “Top Five” 2016 class

 

[superjohn]

Who should we hire then? Oats isn’t coming, Pikell isn’t either. You fire Hurley after this season, you lose the recruiting class, our best players likely bolt, and it’s a full blown rebuild. Is that better than the situation we’d find ourselves in if we continue with Hurley? What’s our alternative?

If you're convinced your coach isn't actually good at coaching there's a bunch of other candidates out there. There's really no such thing as rebuilds now, especially at the major big name basketball schools.

Hurley chose the long slow rebuild.

 

[shizzle787]

So…

NET: 14
KenPom: 15
RPI: 64

Also, non conference has been affected by Oregon, Okie St, and Florida drastically underperforming.

Our NET is because of the BE. We are middle of the pack at best when it comes to scheduling OOC among major conference teams. We can't rely on the BE every year. The ACC is seeing this again. They have awful OOC schedules and it burned them again.

If we played 7 major conference opponents every year and four low mid-majors (Ivy League, SoCon, etc. schools), we would be better prepared, we wouldn't be hurt as much by three teams underperforming, and we would have a better chance to sell out XL. We don't even have to play great P5 teams for the other two games. We could play Stanford and Georgia Tech.

Take this year:

Keep PK85, @Florida, Okie State

Get rid of LIU and Coppin State. Replace with Stanford and Georgia Tech. (They are not great but they have power conference frames.)

Keep BU, UNC Wilmington, and Buffalo

Get rid of Stonehill and replace with Yale.

Simple upgrades that would likely result in the same 11-0 record with a significant SOS boost.

 

[shizzle787]

Pike hasn’t exactly been crushing it at Rutgers. I know, tough place to win in a tough conference, but he’s not really any different than Hurley. Guys like Musselman, Oats, Pearl, Sean Miller, etc are in a clear tier above coaches like Hurley and Pike. Hurley is a great recruiter and has saved the program from the depths of hell, I’m sure he’s feeling the pressure right about now. Next year’s recruiting class better not be a flop like our “Top Five” 2016 class

Stephon Castle will be a stud. The other four are a coin flip.

 

[HuskyFich]

Our NET is because of the BE. We are middle of the pack at best when it comes to scheduling OOC among major conference teams. We can't rely on the BE every year. The ACC is seeing this again. They have awful OOC schedules and it burned them again.

If we played 7 major conference opponents every year and four low mid-majors (Ivy League, SoCon, etc. schools), we would be better prepared, we wouldn't be hurt as much by three teams underperforming, and we would have a better chance to sell out XL. We don't even have to play great P5 teams for the other two games. We could play Stanford and Georgia Tech.

Take this year:

Keep PK85, @Florida, Okie State

Get rid of LIU and Coppin State. Replace with Stanford and Georgia Tech. (They are not great but they have power conference frames.)

Keep BU, UNC Wilmington, and Buffalo

Get rid of Stonehill and replace with Yale.

Simple upgrades that would likely result in the same 11-0 record with a significant SOS boost.

This is completely different than the hill you died on with SOS ranking impacting our ability to win close games.
Who cares if our SOS appears better…

You’re completely ignoring the NET and KenPom.

The only thing that solves the issue you’re looking at is playing teams early in the season that will potentially beat us.

Again, feel free to go off the RPI, it’s a flawed ranking. The only teams in the BE with a tougher RPI SOS are the teams that have played more top half teams so far, as their overall records are better.

 

[shizzle787]

This is completely different than the hill you died on with SOS ranking impacting our ability to win close games.
Who cares if our SOS appears better…

You’re completely ignoring the NET and KenPom.

The only thing that solves the issue you’re looking at is playing teams early in the season that will potentially beat us.

Again, feel free to go off the RPI, it’s a flawed ranking. The only teams in the BE with a tougher RPI SOS are the teams that have played more top half teams so far, as their overall records are better.

If the SOS appears better, it helps for NCAA seeding, which helps our odds of winning multiple games.