The Texas and Oklahoma move

[Zissou]

The possible catalyst for the next major CR might be in the hands of the Longhorns and Sooners. It's widely publicized that they have been targeted in the past by the PAC and the next B12 and PAC12 TV deals will be evolving. Some speculation is that the B12 now has the upper hand in any raiding, but I think Texas and Oklahoma to the PAC still makes the most sense with a new PAC TV/Streaming deal and special accommodations for the Longhorn Network.

The Big10 and SEC have 14 members each and Texas and Oklahoma increase the PAC to 14. What dominos would fall next?

The Big12 rights value would decrease considerably and the Big12 would scramble to stay a lesser P5.

UConn was the obvious Big East target getting the conference to 11 members. The only other target that would make sense for going to 12 members and a bloated 22 game conference schedule is Kansas. Adding Kansas on the western door with Creighton would be a coup for the conference and for FOX, assuming we extend with our TV partner. The Big East would have 3 legit Blue Blood programs - Kansas, UConn, and Nova.

If Texas and OK move it would be the time to appeal to Kansas to make a basketball-first move. Fox would need to provide the incentive for the move - a Notre Dame / NBC type Indy football TV deal in addition to the Big East contract. Fox would be overpaying for the football, but cherry picking Kansas without over paying for other programs in a watered down football conference. In this arrangement the Big East programs might not see the full increased value of Kansas, as some of that would be baked into their football TV deal, but maintaining and extending our current Big East TV deal would be good enough. We'll take a $5M per year per team deal plus the added benefits of Kansas on the schedule and in the conference.

The Big12 then moves to recover and actually goes to 12 members raiding the AAC: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State, TCU, Texas Tech, and WVU add UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati, and Memphis. The Big12 adds the coveted Florida footprint and brings in Cincy and Memphis as more regional foes for WVU. The Big12 maintains P5 status with these adds but likely loses broadcast rights value.

The AAC did not have a strong regional foundation to begin with and can't sustain this CR. Navy stays Patriot and takes its football back to Indy. Temple goes back to the A10 and takes football Indy. Wichita State returns to the MVC. East Carolina, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa return/join Conference USA.

FBS IND football then includes Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, Notre Dame*, UConn, UMass, Navy, and Temple.

The Big East and Fox should be talking to Kansas and discussing contingency possibilities should Texas and Oklahoma bolt.

 

[Goatmeat]

Interesting, if not far-fetched, take on things. I do believe some of it may come to fruition. What would become of Kansas State in this scenario, in your opinion?

 

[metsfan2323]

Wouldn't the Big 12 try to maintain its "Power" $$ status by adding 4 or 6 of the best AAC schools/BYU?

Kansas would more than likely stay in the restructured B12 vs joining the Big East.

 

[Viet Vet]

While OU is clearly the "big brother", it won't be going anywhere without Oklahoma State. Those two are analogous to Arizona/ASU, Oregon/OSU, Washington/WSU. Political considerations will preclude a family split.

 

[CL82]

The possible catalyst for the next major CR might be in the hands of the Longhorns and Sooners. It's widely publicized that they have been targeted in the past by the PAC and the next B12 and PAC12 TV deals will be evolving. Some speculation is that the B12 now has the upper hand in any raiding, but I think Texas and Oklahoma to the PAC still makes the most sense with a new PAC TV/Streaming deal and special accommodations for the Longhorn Network.

The Big10 and SEC have 14 members each and Texas and Oklahoma increase the PAC to 14. What dominos would fall next?

The Big12 rights value would decrease considerably and the Big12 would scramble to stay a lesser P5.

UConn was the obvious Big East target getting the conference to 11 members. The only other target that would make sense for going to 12 members and a bloated 22 game conference schedule is Kansas. Adding Kansas on the western door with Creighton would be a coup for the conference and for FOX, assuming we extend with our TV partner. The Big East would have 3 legit Blue Blood programs - Kansas, UConn, and Nova.

If Texas and OK move it would be the time to appeal to Kansas to make a basketball-first move. Fox would need to provide the incentive for the move - a Notre Dame / NBC type Indy football TV deal in addition to the Big East contract. Fox would be overpaying for the football, but cherry picking Kansas without over paying for other programs in a watered down football conference. In this arrangement the Big East programs might not see the full increased value of Kansas, as some of that would be baked into their football TV deal, but maintaining and extending our current Big East TV deal would be good enough. We'll take a $5M per year per team deal plus the added benefits of Kansas on the schedule and in the conference.

The Big12 then moves to recover and actually goes to 12 members raiding the AAC: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State, TCU, Texas Tech, and WVU add UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati, and Memphis. The Big12 adds the coveted Florida footprint and brings in Cincy and Memphis as more regional foes for WVU. The Big12 maintains P5 status with these adds but likely loses broadcast rights value.

The AAC did not have a strong regional foundation to begin with and can't sustain this CR. Navy stays Patriot and takes its football back to Indy. Temple goes back to the A10 and takes football Indy. Wichita State returns to the MVC. East Carolina, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa return/join Conference USA.

FBS IND football then includes Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, Notre Dame*, UConn, UMass, Navy, and Temple.

The Big East and Fox should be talking to Kansas and discussing contingency possibilities should Texas and Oklahoma bolt.

Does this mean that you will be spending more time on the Kansas board telling them to “come to the Big East?” I mean, it worked once right?

 

[SubbaBub]

What? Is it 2013 in here? Conferences will get smaller and bigger schools will break off go indy before TX/OU join the P12/B10.

Maybe there are a few dinosaur AD's that will go for a 2O-40 team breakout division. TV money is fragmenting even further. At some point streaming will dominate and the money will go to individual schools instead of conferences. If TX gets 100M/yr to deliver 12 games to say Hulu including covering the production and opponents fees, they will bolt. Maybe 100M isn't the number but there is a numbers. The have nots will line up for 2-3M per game if they get to cross sell their own games.

 

[Zissou]

What? Is it 2013 in here? Conferences will get smaller and bigger schools will break off go indy before TX/OU join the P12/B10.

Maybe there are a few dinosaur AD's that will go for a 2O-40 team breakout division. TV money is fragmenting even further. At some point streaming will dominate and the money will go to individual schools instead of conferences. If TX gets 100M/yr to deliver 12 games to say Hulu including covering the production and opponents fees, they will bolt. Maybe 100M isn't the number but there is a numbers. The have nots will line up for 2-3M per game if they get to cross sell their own games.

There maybe some truth to this, but Texas is an exceptional case. The PAC has the desire. Maybe the Apple streaming rights scenario for the PAC comes true.
Teams still benefit from power conferences.

 

[Zissou]

While OU is clearly the "big brother", it won't be going anywhere without Oklahoma State. Those two are analogous to Arizona/ASU, Oregon/OSU, Washington/WSU. Political considerations will preclude a family split.

Maybe, maybe not. Times change. The Cowboys could possibly tag along. Texas schools went separate directions. Gators aren’t linked to Noles. Colorado / Colorado State. There are lots of examples both ways.

The sooners and longhorns will drive the bus. The cowboys may or may not be along for the ride.

 

[Zissou]

Wouldn't the Big 12 try to maintain its "Power" $$ status by adding 4 or 6 of the best AAC schools/BYU?

Yes.

“The Big12 then moves to recover and actually goes to 12 members raiding the AAC: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State, TCU, Texas Tech, and WVU add UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati, and Memphis.”

BYU is an option, but I think the Florida footprint is more desired than Utah.

 

[SU1968]

Texas and Oklahoma won't go to the PAC-12 because of the time zone issue. They are in the Central Time zone, only one hour behind the big eastern TV markets. If they join the PAC-12, they won't get the visibility they crave/need because people in the eastern markets won't want to stay up past midnight to watch west coast games.

 

[Zissou]

Texas and Oklahoma won't go to the PAC-12 because of the time zone issue. They are in the Central Time zone, only one hour behind the big eastern TV markets. If they join the PAC-12, they won't get the visibility they crave/need because people in the eastern markets won't want to stay up past midnight to watch west coast games.

It’s one reason the PAC desires them so much.

 

[Zissou]

Interesting, if not far-fetched, take on things. I do believe some of it may come to fruition. What would become of Kansas State in this scenario, in your opinion?

K State stays B12 in this scenario. If the Jayhawks said that K State must come along for the deal to consummate, then I’d take K State too. More than 12 would likely require a pod schedule though. It would be worth the schedule challenge to accept Kansas in its terms.

 

[pepband99]

The possible catalyst for the next major CR might be in the hands of the Longhorns and Sooners. It's widely publicized that they have been targeted in the past by the PAC and the next B12 and PAC12 TV deals will be evolving. Some speculation is that the B12 now has the upper hand in any raiding, but I think Texas and Oklahoma to the PAC still makes the most sense with a new PAC TV/Streaming deal and special accommodations for the Longhorn Network.

Stopped reading here, because this is bordering on insane.

1) UT isn't augmenting the LHN deal in any way, unless forced.
2) The P12N is basically dead. If anything, the P12 is a heck of a lot closer to going back to a partner model with tail between legs.
3) The OU/OSU conjoinement mentioned above
4) Ask anyone in the AAC (or WVU) what being a geographical outlier is like. Every road trip for every team crosses 2 time zones.

I could go on, but you'll ignore it anyway.

 

[Zissou]

Stopped reading here, because this is bordering on insane.

1) UT isn't augmenting the LHN deal in any way, unless forced.
2) The P12N is basically dead. If anything, the P12 is a heck of a lot closer to going back to a partner model with tail between legs.
3) The OU/OSU conjoinement mentioned above
4) Ask anyone in the AAC (or WVU) what being a geographical outlier is like. Every road trip for every team crosses 2 time zones.

I could go on, but you'll ignore it anyway.

You are factually incorrect.

OK and Texas would maintain a contiguous conference footprint. Know your Geography!

 

[History Geek]

Kansas football indy in your scenario?

 

[Zissou]

Kansas football indy in your scenario?

Yeah, with a sweetheart deal with Fox on football to facilitate the conference move. Fox overpays for the football deal, but gets added value in the separate conference deal.

With Texas and OK leaving expect the benchmark B12 value to drop.

 

[Zissou]

K State stays B12 in this scenario. If the Jayhawks said that K State must come along for the deal to consummate, then I’d take K State too. More than 12 would likely require a pod schedule though. It would be worth the schedule challenge to accept Kansas in its terms.

Here is how a pod system might work in a scenario of Kansas bringing along K State and Iowa State.

It's more simple than it appears at first glance.

Basically the schedule is on a 2 year cycle. The 2 eastern pods always play each other twice and the 2 western pods always play each other twice. The east-west pods always play each other, but alternate by season a 1 game schedule and a 2 game schedule. For example, UConn would play Kansas every year, but every other year they play twice.

The result is a 22 game conf schedule for the eastern schools and a 23 game schedule for the western schools. Most prefer the true double round robin schedule that we currently have but this sacrifice would be worth landing Kansas.

FBS IND football scheduling pool would increase to include Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, Notre Dame*, UConn, UMass, Navy, Temple, Kansas, K State, and Iowa State.

A Kansas independent football schedule might look like: K State, Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, BYU, Army, New Mexico State, UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Air Force, Colorado State. Maybe occasional games against old Big Eight foes OK, OK State, and Colorado. Maybe occasionally Texas as well.

This is all just a scenario should the PAC land Texas and Oklahoma. That is far from certain, but there is enough of a chance that Texas makes a move that the Big East and Kansas should be informally exploring "what if" scenarios.

 

[CL82]

Yeah, with a sweetheart deal with Fox on football to facilitate the conference move. Fox overpays for the football deal, but gets added value in the separate conference deal.

With Texas and OK leaving expect the benchmark B12 value to drop.

While we are at it, can you get Fox to overpay for our football as well? I know we have the CBSSports deal, but I think that only runs one season.

 

[Zissou]

While we are at it, can you get Fox to overpay for our football as well? I know we have the CBSSports deal, but I think that only runs one season.

The time to negotiate that was before you committed to the Big East, lol.

Basketball was your leverage, not the 2 and 10 G5 football team with a 20 year FBS history.

But... with the scheduling success that you are building, I think the value should grow incrementally.

 

[CL82]

The time to negotiate that was before you committed to the Big East, lol.

Fully agree. I also think we should have carved out WBB rights which are worth in excess of $1M annually. If you look at the media rights contract there is an argument that they shouldn't have been included except for a year or two.

Not that I am complaining. I'm looking forward to playing a full BE MBB slate and the BET. Hopefully that happens this season.

 

[Zissou]

I would think the CBS - Navy contract might be a good benchmark for what UConn might be able to approach in value. I think that contract value has been kept under wraps though.

I also think the Navy - AAC contract payout has been kept quiet.

Navy TV revenue should be its AAC cut + its CBS contract + the Army/Navy game.

 

[pepband99]

You are factually incorrect.

OK and Texas would maintain a contiguous conference footprint. Know your Geography!

Oh come on. Contiguous via the smallest sliver of the panhandle of Oklahoma. 350M west of Norman.

Of course, no comment on the actually important items, because it would derail your lunacy.

 

[Zissou]

Navy TV revenue should be its AAC cut + its CBS contract + the Army/Navy game.

I'm going to WAG this Navy TV revenue estimate:
AAC = $2M x 50% = $1M
CBS Contract = $2M
Army/Navy game = $8M x 50% = $4M

Total Navy TV revenue = ~$7M

Vs Notre Dame with a $7M ACC cut = $15M NBC deal for home games = $22M

 

[Zissou]

Oh come on. Contiguous via the smallest sliver of the panhandle of Oklahoma. 350M west of Norman.

Of course, no comment on the actually important items, because it would derail your lunacy.

You said "Every road trip for every team crosses 2 time zones". Do you stand by that or do you recognize it as incorrect?

How many time zones are crossed from Oklahoma to Colorado, a border state?

 

[gioff2323]

You said "Every road trip for every team crosses 2 time zones". Do you stand by that or do you recognize it as incorrect?

How many time zones are crossed from Oklahoma to Colorado, a border state?

1 less than every other conf game (unless u catch the zona schools early).

Just to be clear, you’re advocating that teams should leave a conf that is actually playing games for one that is not?