The stacked deck

[Fairfield Fan]

For the hay of it, I went through the 2017 high school rankings from Prospects Nation to see where these kids were going.

Turns out that 30 of the top 40 ranked players in the nation are going to just 12 universities. Connecticut gets 4; Tennessee gets 4; Duke and South Carolina get 3 each. And eight other teams get 2 recruits each of the top 40.

I think that's why some of these top schools can suffer transfers, but still remain high in the rankings. So few top talents go to schools outside of the top twelve programs.

 

[DefenseBB]

I am now worried as I was doing the same exact thing yesterday...my conclusion was this is more of why WCBB has the same "usual suspects" of top teams in the top 10 every year.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I think it's clear that the rankings are not always correct in terms of whether a #40 recruit becomes a star, while a #12 recruit is mediocre. But it does seem that the top several dozen kids usually do excel in college basketball. So seems as though in rough terms the top teams do attract most of the top talent.

 

[UcMiami]

Very good observation and probably not particularly unusual, though I suspect their is a fair amount of rotation from year to year among the teams included in that list of 12 or so. TN for example had zero in 2016 and Uconn was at 1.

What I do find surprising and a changing landscape is the number of multi-year starters/major contributors who are transferring lately. The transition into college and the uncertainty of that first major 'life choice' recruits make create a fertile ground for freshman to change their mind. But players that have survived that initial period and seem to be thriving in their basketball career transferring after a second or third year strike me as odd. When there is coaching turmoil or institutional turmoil it is understandable, but a lot of these transfers come from stable situations.

 

[GoingPostal]

If one of the goals of the top recruits is to win a NC then their chances are greater by going to one of the aforementioned "usual suspects". Now could they win a NC at another school. Of course, look at how close MS got this year. Not even a great player like EDD could get her Delaware teams close to a NC but had she remained at UConn the sky would have been the limit. Is it fair probably not but that's the playing field as of today.

 

[UcMiami]

I am now worried as I was doing the same exact thing yesterday...my conclusion was this is more of why WCBB has the same "usual suspects" of top teams in the top 10 every year.

I think it's clear that the rankings are not always correct in terms of whether a #40 recruit becomes a star, while a #12 recruit is mediocre. But it does seem that the top several dozen kids usually do excel in college basketball. So seems as though in rough terms the top teams do attract most of the top talent.

As 538 observed in an article two years ago, the situation is the same on the men's side and often even more concentrated. The difference being the top of the men's talent is long gone by the time the fourth year rolls around.
And I think if you did the same analysis for a 4 year period, the list of schools included on the women's side for top 40 prospects would expand to 20-25 schools getting multiples in any given year and 40+ over the 4 year period. With small rosters and 5 players on the court (and the issues with ranking HS talent) that creates a better competitive environment than appears from looking at just a single year.

 

[JordyG]

For the hay of it, I went through the 2017 high school rankings from Prospects Nation to see where these kids were going.

Turns out that 30 of the top 40 ranked players in the nation are going to just 12 universities. Connecticut gets 4; Tennessee gets 4; Duke and South Carolina get 3 each. And eight other teams get 2 recruits each of the top 40.

I think that's why some of these top schools can suffer transfers, but still remain high in the rankings. So few top talents go to schools outside of the top twelve programs.

But frankly many programs in WCBB, sports writers and sports observers have been complaining about exactly this for a few years now. It's also what many predicted years ago. What is surprising is how often we are surprised by the results.

As for the increasing amount of transfers by athletes that are moving from relatively stable teams and coaching situations, it didn't take much of a soothsayer to predict. Certainly if a chowder head like me could see it coming the writing was on the wall.

 

[nwhoopfan]

The last 2 years, the Final 4 has had some intruders that were not "usual suspects." UW, Oregon St., Syracuse and Mississippi St. all crashed the party. And South Carolina is a relative newcomer to the "usual suspects" club, which shows others can move up the ladder in the hierarchy of women's hoops.

 

[Carnac]

If one of the goals of the top recruits is to win a NC then their chances are greater by going to one of the aforementioned "usual suspects". Now could they win a NC at another school. Of course, look at how close MS got this year. Not even a great player like EDD could get her Delaware teams close to a NC but had she remained at UConn the sky would have been the limit. Is it fair probably not but that's the playing field as of today.

Agreed. As you say, if a recruit wants a chance of contending for a NC, they MUST join a program that is contently in the top 4 to even have a realistic chance. Teams outside of the top 8, have no chance. If you look at the teams that have won a NC over the last 10-15 years, MOST if not all of them were ranked in the top 5 throughout the season. The "Usual suspects" are the ones winning all of the championships. And that's a tough sorority to join, especially when they're not looking for pledges.

 

[Carnac]

But frankly many programs in WCBB, sports writers and sports observers have been complaining about exactly this for a few years now. It's also what many predicted years ago. What is surprising is how often we are surprised by the results.

As for the increasing amount of transfers by athletes that are moving from relatively stable teams and coaching situations, it didn't take much of a soothsayer to predict. Certainly if a chowder head like me could see it coming the writing was on the wall.

That appears to be a growing trend lately. In times past, it would take a lot for a student-athlete to transfer, not today. They'll transfer in a New York minute. Student athletes today may not possess the ability to foretell exactly what their situation will be like after that first year when they sign that LOI, because some coaches make promises to them they don't/can't keep. But they ALL quickly obtain a "Master's degree" in 4-6 months, in the ability to decipher and understand "writing on the wall", most of the time which is as plain and real as a bright sunny day.

 

[oldude]

I am now worried as I was doing the same exact thing yesterday...my conclusion was this is more of why WCBB has the same "usual suspects" of top teams in the top 10 every year.

DBB, if I were you, I'd me far more worried that I was doing the exact same thing as Fairfield...

 

[JordyG]

That appears to be a growing trend lately. In times past, it would take a lot for a student-athlete to transfer, not today. They'll transfer in a New York minute. Student athletes today may not possess the ability to foretell exactly what their situation will be like after that first year when they sign that LOI, because some coaches make promises to them they don't/can't keep. But they ALL quickly obtain a "Master's degree" in 4-6 months, in the ability to decipher and understand "writing on the wall", most of the time which is as plain and real as a bright sunny day.

In a thread about a couple of years ago I and others spoke about the times and the culture. The short attention spans, the me first and always, over expectant attitudes. Kids who believe they're all going to be either rap stars, pop superstars, great athletes or nothing. All with a lack of understanding for the hard work necessary to really achieve. A culture that places its emphasis on flash without substance, knowing without knowledge, intelligence without intellect. Last year Geno pretty much said the same things,

Everyone thinks the grass is greener just over the fence, but give an immature mind in this culture and they're going to jump that fence with little impetus. When the going gets tough the meager get up and go. But clearly its not just athletes. Coaches, GM's, exec's. Heck, entire teams move along without a look back. It's the times and they have changed, and as I said, it wasn't very hard to predict.

 

[Carnac]

In a thread about a couple of years ago I and others spoke about the times and the culture. The short attention spans, the me first and always, over expectant attitudes. Kids who believe they're all going to be either rap stars, pop superstars, great athletes or nothing. All with a lack of understanding for the hard work necessary to really achieve. A culture that places its emphasis on flash without substance, knowing without knowledge, intelligence without intellect. Last year Geno pretty much said the same things,

Everyone thinks the grass is greener just over the fence, but give an immature mind in this culture and they're going to jump that fence with little impetus. When the going gets tough the meager get up and go. But clearly its not just athletes. Coaches, GM's, exec's. Heck, entire teams move along without a look back. It's the times and they have changed, and as I said, it wasn't very hard to predict.

As I've said in other threads Jordy, I'm not the only seer here in the yard. I'm just the only one that dresses the part!

 

[JordyG]

As I've said in other threads Jordy, I'm not the only seer here in the yard. I'm just the only one that dresses the part!

Since I'm on a roll I see six money making numbers in your future. Just don't forget your friends over here.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

The last 2 years, the Final 4 has had some intruders that were not "usual suspects." UW, Oregon St., Syracuse and Mississippi St. all crashed the party. And South Carolina is a relative newcomer to the "usual suspects" club, which shows others can move up the ladder in the hierarchy of women's hoops.

Good point.

 

[huskeynut]

In a thread about a couple of years ago I and others spoke about the times and the culture. The short attention spans, the me first and always, over expectant attitudes. Kids who believe they're all going to be either rap stars, pop superstars, great athletes or nothing. All with a lack of understanding for the hard work necessary to really achieve. A culture that places its emphasis on flash without substance, knowing without knowledge, intelligence without intellect. Last year Geno pretty much said the same things,

Everyone thinks the grass is greener just over the fence, but give an immature mind in this culture and they're going to jump that fence with little impetus. When the going gets tough the meager get up and go. But clearly its not just athletes. Coaches, GM's, exec's. Heck, entire teams move along without a look back. It's the times and they have changed, and as I said, it wasn't very hard to predict.

Jordy - I agree with your synopsis of the present trend.

I beleive we need to add the "promises" made to recruits by coaches. And we know they are out there. The "you will start immediately", "you will be are point guard" and others. When these "promises" don't materialize then dissatisfaction sets in. Recruiting is a cut throat business when one player is being recruited by the top teams. A players head can be spinning.

High school coaches should begin to think about what a recruit and her parents need to know about the recruiting game. Because, let's face it, they don't have clue when it starts.

 

[JordyG]

Jordy - I agree with your synopsis of the present trend.

I beleive we need to add the "promises" made to recruits by coaches. And we know they are out there. The "you will start immediately", "you will be are point guard" and others. When these "promises" don't materialize then dissatisfaction sets in. Recruiting is a cut throat business when one player is being recruited by the top teams. A players head can be spinning.

High school coaches should begin to think about what a recruit and her parents need to know about the recruiting game. Because, let's face it, they don't have clue when it starts.

Man so right.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Followed up by looking at Prospects Nation's 2016 top 40 rankings. That was slightly less concentrated. Yet 24 of those top 40 recruits decided to attend just 11 schools. Maryland and Stanford took 3 each, while Notre Dame, Oregon, UConn, Baylor, Ohio State, South Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Louisville took two each.

So there were new names- Virginia, Oregon, Ohio State. But the remainder were the usual suspects.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I have not checked to see how many of those recruits who went to the top programs subsequently transferred, either to a non-top program, or another top program. I believe another By'er did some of that digging, however.

 

[Florida Fan]

If I am one or your top-tier teams, and, over a two-year time frame, I draft up to 3 high-school All Americans, say, tall shooting guards, like Notre Dame, playing time could become an issue. And if my parents think your coach is misusing your preternatural talents, and is talking to another college program, and your AAU buddies leave THEIR colleges, then transferring becomes the new normal, that trickle on its way to a flood. The hard part for me is coaches stockpiling recruits anticipating the future exodus.

 

[UcMiami]

Obviously there are issues with recruiting and the decisions made in choosing colleges and I place most of the 'blame' on the players/parents - they are the buyers in this situation and while there are all sorts of reasons to choose one college over another, for highly rated recruits their basketball experience is going to be the primary driver of their happiness with that choice. And when I look at the players transferring, it is not unusual for the first response to be 'duh, what did you think would happen?' Did you do ANY research, really look at the team and coaching and recruiting pattern? And not just but into the 'used car sales pitch' that comes with every purchase choice.

And of course a lot of transfers have nothing to with that initial choice - injuries, family situations, chance to play with a sibling (!), coaching changes.
And some of it is the randomness of future recruiting that doesn't fit any pattern for the coaching staff (some of that is predictable for particular coaches, some just happenstance.)

[The sibling issue I just find weird for obviously top flight players - Moore and McCoy this year are likely stunting their professional development for a chance to play with less talented younger sisters for a year or two and both are solid pro prospects. When Johnson left Uconn to join her sister her injury history had already stunted her development path.]

And yeah - I think parents too often become an issue with college choices (for non-athletes as well.) A lot of them do a great job of helping with college choice and tempering childish fantasies, but there are quite a few who project their own fantasies onto their children's lives.

 

[bags27]

Obviously the analysis of UcMiami, Jordy and others is correct that "kids today" and their parents are more me-first.

But why focus on this? It's the world we live in. There is no longer employer loyalty to employees and vice-versa; professional sports is all about contracts, rather than team or player loyalty, etc.

Are we still thinking that "amateur" sports are still somehow amateur and pure, when we ourselves spot 8th grade "student athletes" and post publicly how we hope they go to a particular college (UConn), when in fact we have no idea who they really are, what they really want, what would make them happiest?

It's a new world, with new rules (or maybe without any rules yet).

 

[Plebe]

Agreed. As you say, if a recruit wants a chance of contending for a NC, they MUST join a program that is contently in the top 4 to even have a realistic chance. Teams outside of the top 8, have no chance. If you look at the teams that have won a NC over the last 10-15 years, MOST if not all of them were ranked in the top 5 throughout the season. The "Usual suspects" are the ones winning all of the championships. And that's a tough sorority to join, especially when they're not looking for pledges.

Not true.

What had South Carolina done when Coates and Wilson committed to Dawn's program?
What had Mississippi State done when Vivians and William committed to Vic's program?
What had Syracuse done when Sykes and Peterson committed to Coach Q's program?

 

[Carnac]

Not true.

What had South Carolina done when Coates and Wilson committed to Dawn's program?
What had Mississippi State done when Vivians and William committed to Vic's program?
What had Syracuse done when Sykes and Peterson committed to Coach Q's program?

Here we go again.......Really? Show me stats that prove I'm wrong, not supposition. How many teams outside of the top 8 have won a women's NC in the last 30 years? Contending is nice. How many have won, not get to the FF, won?? You seldom get any recognition or credit (trophies/nets) for "contending". Perhaps I should have substituted the word WIN for contending.

 

[Wally East]

Not true.

What had South Carolina done when Coates and Wilson committed to Dawn's program?
What had Mississippi State done when Vivians and William committed to Vic's program?
What had Syracuse done when Sykes and Peterson committed to Coach Q's program?

What had UConn done when Rebecca Lobo committed?