The Shadow League: We're Doomed

[RockyMTblue2]

Call it an editorial and it just may be half tongue-in-cheek. The premise: UConn blew it's chance to lose a game in the AAC Championships, thereby all but sealing its fate in the NCAAs.

The Shadow League | The UCONN Women Need To Lose A Game Before The

"Having already shattered the consecutive wins record and defied the odds ten times over, any betting person would probably throw down some bread on the fact that UCONN will lose a game in the near future just because. Never has a team in the history of Division-I basketball been so perfect."

 

[bags27]

That's like saying that if I look around for a very bad stock to lose a little money on, it'll assure me that the rest of my investments will be a success. Whereas, with me at least, the reverse always seems to be true!

 

[huskeynut]

I think this author/ reporter has no concept of what UConn women's basketball is all about. He doesn't understand that our young ladies absolutely refuse to lose. They truly believe that whatever is needed to win, it will be done. Someone will step it up and deliver.

 

[pvdoggy]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

Well, you're right. No one goes undefeated in the WNBA. As Geno has said, every wave eventually crashes, but as he has also said "it doesn't have to be while you guys are here." For mojo purposes, speaking hypothetically about any team, you'd think it would be influenced by the nature of the loss, but you'd hope any team would be mad, very, very mad, but mature and take something out of it.

 

[eebmg]

What silly math "The law of averages and probability say Connecticut is going to take an L in the next five games."

True if every game is a toss-up but hardly the case here. He must be satirical ??

 

[Phil]

Innumeracy is so sad. You might think that someone whose name is "Gamble" would've had at least a passing interest in the subject but no, they go on to say

The law of averages and probability say Connecticut is going to take an L in the next five games."

That's not how probability works.

Look up: Gambler's fallacy (Not named after the author

 

[Phil]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

I wonder how I'm going to handle it.

 

[DefenseBB]

An a finance professional, statistically speaking the author is solely looking at probability as the uncharted territory (106-0) states a loss is inevitable. However, we know the game process for Geno and the team as well as who the main competition is. IMO, there are only two teams I feel could dereail UConn-ND and Baylor. Less Baylor than ND, but as we have seen as recently as last year, they have their own hiccups to deal with before they would meet us. I honestly believe ND is #2 and BU #3 which makes is a Final Game scenario. However if for some reason the committee upgrades SC to #3, we would potentially meet BU in the semi-final. Sorry to the SC fans here but your season to date warrants #4 ranking, nothing higher. I am 75% confident we would beat both BU and ND, I just think that is the harder road. At some time a loss will occur and while on a game by game basis it will seem improbable at the time. However we also thought the same back in November 2014 before the game with Stanford. I am still of the opinion that Geno was ok with losing that game as making a point to the team (however conflicting that opinion is to Geno's competitiveness). However, The LOSS WILL NOT BE THIS YEAR, ON THIS TEAMS WATCH!

 

[tomcat]

Silly article written by someone with space to fill. As someone above pointed out, the only way the odds and probability say UConn HAS to lose is if UConn and the other team are all even at the start, which is generally not the case. I'm not saying they won't lose, just that this guy doesn't really know how to describe it happening.

 

[OldAlum]

The casinos like to see this guy coming! "This machine is due to payoff!"
Nothing like applying rules of random probability to nonrandom events like a winning basketball team playing a losing one...

 

[Huskee11]

So a guy is at the swingin' singles bar and the last nine women have laughed in his face. Can`t wait to meet number 10!

Didn`t work in reverse for Chicago State, 0-29. Surprise, surprise.

He`s talking seriously about UConn losing in the AAC Finals? And that "Everyone is rooting for them to lose"? Yeesh.

Can remember the panic that would set in as the semester was drawing to a close and still no topic for the term paper. I think that must happen at times to sportswriters as they approach deadlines, nothing much to say, so they just start babbling on. Either that or they are just not very good to begin with. Actually, both could be true.

 

[Sonny44]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

I think you will find that they handle it just the same as their wins; with grace, character and the resolve to do better next game.
If you're expecting weeping and wailing among a dozen excuses you will be sadly disappointed.

 

[UcMiami]

Wow - really surprised by the responses. I thought it was a well written piece using common sense to discuss an uncommon situation. He is full of praise for UConn and appreciation for how they play the game and what they have accomplished. His point, and Geno has made the same one (and did so obliquely in the Geno Show last night) is that releasing the pressure valve of the win streak and a perfect season would not be a 'negative' result for the team - you saw how they reacted after the Tulane game, and after the UCF game, when they refocused and came out smoking in the next contest and neither of them were losses - think what a pissed off team after a loss, with coaching that takes that anger and channels it into basketball focus would look like - it is a little frightening: Gabby in her ND mode, Lou in her USF locked in phase, Collier channeling her own USF excellence from a week ago, Kia playing in her DePaul focus, and Saniya doing her Maryland magic while Crystal Dangerfield brings her Baylor thing, and Natalie remembers FSU/TX and becomes a monster. That is what he is basically saying - releasing the pressure and bringing out Beast Mode would not be a bad thing - BUT he doesn't expect it to happen.

That this team seems to defy that general sports story and is able to compartmentalize the pressure or channel it into excellence is a given, but should they lose in the NCAA, everyone of us who could turn back the clock and give them a loss at the end of the season, or in the conference final, would gladly choose to do so to see if it altered the NCAA result. It might not, but we would certainly sacrifice a few games off the streak to see if it did.

As for the investment analogy Bag27 - he is giving pretty standard investment advice, buying a broad based fund on the day after the Dow makes a new record high is probably not the best idea, much better to buy the day after a minor 'correction'. Or in sports book terms - placing a ten dollar bet on 1-10 odds on favorite is not really wise, better to take the field at 10-1 - you may lose ten dollars either way but if you win at least you win something.

 

[bags27]

Wow - really surprised by the responses. I thought it was a well written piece using common sense to discuss an uncommon situation. He is full of praise for UConn and appreciation for how they play the game and what they have accomplished. His point, and Geno has made the same one (and did so obliquely in the Geno Show last night) is that releasing the pressure valve of the win streak and a perfect season would not be a 'negative' result for the team - you saw how they reacted after the Tulane game, and after the UCF game, when they refocused and came out smoking in the next contest and neither of them were losses - think what a pissed off team after a loss, with coaching that takes that anger and channels it into basketball focus would look like - it is a little frightening:

Well, let's not forget that originally Geno was (gasp!) completely wrong! It turned out that this team actually didn't need to get its ass-kicked. This is unchartered waters for a lot of reasons, and, while there is folk wisdom involved in saying that a loss would release pressure, we have absolutely no idea if that would be true. Maybe it would shatter their swagger. That they performed better after near-misses in no way suggests that they would perform better after an actual loss. Maybe they play better precisely when they see the streak threatened. Maybe they revel in the early assessment that this team isn't as good as previous ones, and each time they extend the streak they prove those folks wrong. And maybe if they do lose a game, they will feel so responsible for letting UConn down that they won't play as well afterwards.

maybe, maybe, maybe. None of us knows. But as Geno finally came to admit: the streak will end eventually, but it doesn't have to end with you guys this year.

 

[CocoHusky]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

Well if it does happen in this tournament they will all be back (except for Saniya & Tlaw) next year with reinforcements (Megatron, Z, 'Touly, Lexi, AEH, Mikayla) seeking revenge.

 

[oldude]

I wonder how this team will handle defeat when they lose a game.

There is a very good possibility that we may never know how this team handles defeat.

 

[Coach]

Bo knows basketball but J.R. (writer) know little of UCONN Basketball.

Why would we ask "that Kentucky team that went 38-0 in 2015 before losing to Wisconsin in the NCAA tourney how hard it is to roll into March Madness without a loss" when UCONN has already been an undefeated champion multiple times?

 

[BigBird]

I wonder how I'm going to handle it.

You beat me to it, Phil. As I read the OP, my first thought was "Gambler's Fallacy." I taught this stuff (basics of logic) to college freshmen for a hundred years or so. Well, 40 to be more exact. For some folks, there is a tendency to confuse or conflate this fallacy with "regression to the mean." The latter of course means that when a shooter gets nine threes in a row without missing, she will miss the tenth every time. ;-) Ooops.

 

[pvdoggy]

Well if it does happen in this tournament they will all be back (except for Saniya & Tlaw) next year with reinforcements (Megatron, Z, 'Touly, Lexi, AEH, Mikayla) seeking revenge.

What I really meant is I have seen so many teams crying like babies when they lose in the NCAA tournament. Seems like this team is kind of even keeled that they would just shrug it off or will they breakdown emotionally as well.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

J.R.Gamble, "Senior Writer", but NOT a Journalist.

"The law of averages and probability say Connecticut is going to take an L in the next five games."

What is "The law of averages and probability"? I can't find one, and Google is usually pretty good about these things. There, is of course, a Law of Averages, and there are laws that govern theories of Probability, but not one all-encompassing law that I could find.

As for Probability, that tells us that the likelihood of UConn losing doesn't increase with the number of iterations; all things remaining equal, it is the same for every game. While it can be expected that the next 6 games will likely increase in degree of difficulty (given ATRE and the higher seeds win along the way) and therefore fundamentally increasing the probability of a loss, most of these higher seeded teams have already lost to UConn, either at home or on the road. So the probability slope, while positive, is not necessarily as steep as it may be in other seasons.

If you ask me, this was more an Op Ed piece than constructive Journalism. But that is an opinion. And yes, to most people mine stinks, too.

 

[Pride fan]

Re: "Losing in the AAC Finals could be the best thing to happen to Geno Auriemma’s invincible squadron... It would allow his team to feel losing and the experience of rebounding from a tough loss, which is also something they’ve never had to do."

That's not completely true..., 107 games ago Saniya, Gabby and Kia did feel what a tough loss is like and the way they've rebounded is the current streak. I don't think that a loss to USF would have been a positive and wouldn't have made them focus more or fight any harder than they will over the next (hopefully six) games.