The Rise of Superteams in WBB

[oldude]

Through the years WBB has produced its share of dominant programs. The recipe starts with a great coach and recruiter, a championship team or two, a process that reloads recruiting talent year after year, develops them into “pro-ready” players and continues to win or compete for more championships. Undoubtedly, UConn WBB, more than any other program, has employed this formula to achieve unparalleled success.

In addition, WBB had a limited pool of great players who gravitated to top programs. Unlike MBB where “one and done” is often the rule for the very top recruits, the W limits eligibility to players who are either 22 years of age, completed their college eligibility or have graduated from a 4-year college. Finally, transfers used to be required to sit out a year. These restrictions funneled the very best players to the very best programs where they typically remained for 4 years.

Over the past 5 years or so there have been several significant changes that have forever altered the landscape of college sports. While the talent pool in WBB has grown, the top teams still get many, if not most, of the top recruits. More importantly, the changes that have altered the landscape of college sports have resulted in what can best be described as “the rise of Super teams in WBB.”

The Covid Year – While this will be the last season where 5 years of eligibility will be granted to any player that was in college during the 2019-2020 season, the extra covid year has resulted in hundreds of players putting off the inevitable decision to get on with their lives after college. For most of these players, pro ball is not a realistic option, so why not stay in college for an extra year? But for a handful of highly talented players the covid year presents an opportunity to continue their development, chase a championship, make a few NIL $$$ and better prepare themselves for the pros. Kaitlyn Chen at UConn, Kat Westbeld at ND and Te-Hina Paopao of SC were all projected as potential 1st or 2nd round picks during the past WNBA draft. By running it forward for another year in college at a top program, they are all well-positioned for a run at a championship, some NIL $$$ and a possible future in the W.

Immediate Transfer Eligibility – The process that led to the establishment of the Transfer Portal, immediate eligibility for a 1st-time transfer and now immediate eligibility no matter how many times a player transfers has dramatically reshaped college sports in general and WBB specifically. In the past, players typically elected to transfer and sit out a year in search of more playing time or they were unhappy at their current school. For each of the past 4 seasons, over 1,000 D1 WBB players entered the Transfer Portal, reaching an all-time high of 1,399 this past season. While players still transfer in search of PT and/or happiness, we are now witnessing the transfer of star players in search of championships and/or better compensation. This past season alone, Kiki Iriafen, Raegan Beers, Georgia Amore, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Timea Gardiner, Laila Phelia, Aaronette Vonleh, Talia von Oelhoffen, Deja Kelly and Janiah Barker are just some of the players that were absolute stars with their former programs who have all decided that the “grass is greener” somewhere else.

Collapse of the PAC-12 & Conference consolidation – As the P5 conferences continue to consolidate into what may eventually be the P2, the venerable Pac-12, which dates back over 100 years, closed-up shop this past season. This coming season OR, UCLA, USC & WA are headed for the Big 10; AZ, ASU, CO & UT to the Big 12; CA & Stan to the ACC, OSU & WSU were left standing when the music stopped and legendary coach Tara VanDerveer decided it was time to hang up her coach’s whistle. Lots of player movement both within and out of the former Pac 12 schools. No team got hit worse than 27-8 OSU, who ended up in the Mountain West Conference. OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal, including 3 talented starters.

NIL & House vs NCAA Settlement – While the ability of talented college athletes to earn money based on their name, image and likeness seemed fair enough, nobody was prepared for the earthshaking upheaval that has resulted from the fast-changing rules, or lack thereof, relative to college athlete compensation. Initially designed to permit advertisers like Gatorade or State Farm to sign endorsement contracts with college athletes like Paige Bueckers or Caitlin Clark, NIL quickly devolved into NIL Alumni Collectives, agents, shadowy middlemen and bidding wars over HS recruits as well as college transfers. The recent story of Aaliyah Chavez, the #1 recruit in the Class of 2025 asking for a cool $1 million in NIL to sign a LOI has to send chills through college basketball coaches everywhere. Add in the historic $2.8 billion House vs NCAA settlement between the P5 conferences to provide compensation to former athletes and direct pay to current athletes, with no salary cap, and it’s pretty clear that the schools with the most money will eventually field the best teams.

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season. I am certain the BY will voice lots of opinions on my selections, so here they are:

• SC
• UCLA
• USC
• ND
• LSU
• UConn

In addition to bringing in more than their share of top HS recruits, each of these teams have either secured star players in the transfer portal, including from the collapse of the Pac12, and/or taken advantage of the Covid 5th year to substantially improve their rosters. I suspect that the players on these teams will all be "fairly-compensated", however that plays out. There are probably other teams I have overlooked, which I suspect the BY will advise me about. But for the foreseeable future, when it comes to WBB, the rich will be getting much, much richer.

One final note. Of the 6 teams that I list, UConn has followed the most conventional route by far. Of the 14 players on the Huskies roster this coming season, only one did not arrive to UConn as a freshman. Kaitlyn Chen transferred from Princeton to Storrs using her 5th year of eligibility (covid year). The Ivy League does not permit a covid year, so Kaitlyn could not have played a 5th year at Princeton had she wanted to. As for Paige in her 5th year at UConn and Aubrey in her 6th, technically both would be eligible to play this year under long standing red shirt rules for injured athletes. So, before anyone asks, YES both Paige and Aubrey could conceivably return to UConn again next year to compete for a 6th and 7th season respectively. NOW THAT WOULD BE A SUPER TEAM!!!

 

[Kaizen]

Great post, thank you @oldude.

Texas is not in you top 6 list but is #5 in ESPN list.
Sad, Tennessee is almost out of the women basketball (Tennessee is ranked #44 in AP polls).
What happens to Iowa? Iowa used to be #2 ESPN list in 2023-2024. After Clarks graduated Iowa is not even in the top 25.

Women's Way-Too-Early Top 25: South Carolina stays No. 1, Maryland makes it in

With just over a month left until the season begins, where the best teams fall in behind the Gamecocks -- including the Terrapins.

www.espn.com

How is Tennessee women basketball ranking? - Google Search

 

[Bone Dog]

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season.

I think I follow and agree with the thrust of your post. But it leaves me with a few conundrums.

• I was not under the impression that Geno relies on an alumni collective to fund NIL offers. This means that he does not recruit with salary negotiations. He mainly offers them a chance to grow, to be part of a team culture, to learn self-discipline, and a path to a career.
• Paige and Azzi were NIL pioneers, and didn't come because of a salary offer. They also built small fortunes for themselves and helped team mates along this path, but they did it on their own, not through a collective.
• I seem to recall hearing something about how UConn players would get a percentage of merch sold in the student store if it was team branded or had their names on it. I gather a some other teams do this too, but it hardly compares to the individual deals a few have made on their own.
• If I'm right about this, then UConn's tenure as a "super team" is not really comparable to the others, if those teams actually offer a salary for nothing other than playing. Has UConn's policy changed recently? If it hasn't, and the other teams actually do all this, UConn may not number among the super teams for long after Geno leaves.
• I favor NIL rights for student athletes -- really for all students -- simply because they are a form of property right and we have constitutional guarantees about rights like that. Also, it seems to me that the NCAA (and the conferences) have profited enormously from selling such property out from under the students. Yes, a scholarship is something like a quid pro quo, but the pro was their play on the court, not the property of their persons. Also, it was non-negotiable and clearly a very bad bargain for some of these students.
• I don't favor 'pay for play' as it seems to cheapen everything about college sports needlessly. It's one thing to say students and student athletes should be allowed to sell something that belongs to them, and another to say that a shadowy organization of alums should guarantee a return even if not all students NIL property is equally valuable. And it gets even worse when the collective turns its attention to attracting adolescent star athletes with salary offers. The notion of a team culture and shared sacrifice will not long survive this. Pro teams can have a sort of camaraderie and this is sort of like team culture, but very many of them do not even have this.
• I wonder how much of the current allure of playing for UConn is because of Geno and his genius, how much comes from the reputation he has built for preparing players for the W, how much comes from the names of the greats hanging in the halls of Worth and Gampel, and how much of it is currently the result of the charisma and star power of Paige and Azzi.
• Once Paige and Azzi leave, how much will the allure of UConn be diminished. Players came to UConn in the past because of Rebecca or Sue or Diana or Maya long after they had gone on to careers in the pros. But that was before NIL clouded all the issues surrounding recruitment. We currently get kids who report having dreamt of coming to UConn since they were little kids. Will this effect also fade away?
• I love UConn and the culture Geno has built here and I will be very sorry to see it come to an end if or when that happens. We in the BY all love every single kid who comes to Storrs, and there is large following outside of our group. We may remain constant, but that larger following will fade over the years after Geno and the tradition of dominance slips into hazy memory. And fewer kids will grow up dreaming of playing at Storrs. In that case, salary negotiations may end up being the only competitive recruiting tool a future coach will have.

As a college professor, I have lots of reasons to resent an athletic department for its intrusions into the academic life and learning of some of my students. Or of how, at other institutions, the Athletic Department often seems to be the tail wagging the dog. Many of my colleagues feel this way. But I love watching young people strive for greatness in every way, not just in the classroom. And an athletic department that respects limits and treats students well will always have my respect. UConn is one of these.

 

[Next 12]

Through the years WBB has produced its share of dominant programs. The recipe starts with a great coach and recruiter, a championship team or two, a process that reloads recruiting talent year after year, develops them into “pro-ready” players and continues to win or compete for more championships. Undoubtedly, UConn WBB, more than any other program, has employed this formula to achieve unparalleled success.

In addition, WBB had a limited pool of great players who gravitated to top programs. Unlike MBB where “one and done” is often the rule for the very top recruits, the W limits eligibility to players who are either 22 years of age, completed their college eligibility or have graduated from a 4-year college. Finally, transfers used to be required to sit out a year. These restrictions funneled the very best players to the very best programs where they typically remained for 4 years.

Over the past 5 years or so there have been several significant changes that have forever altered the landscape of college sports. While the talent pool in WBB has grown, the top teams still get many, if not most, of the top recruits. More importantly, the changes that have altered the landscape of college sports have resulted in what can best be described as “the rise of Super teams in WBB.”

The Covid Year – While this will be the last season where 5 years of eligibility will be granted to any player that was in college during the 2019-2020 season, the extra covid year has resulted in hundreds of players putting off the inevitable decision to get on with their lives after college. For most of these players, pro ball is not a realistic option, so why not stay in college for an extra year? But for a handful of highly talented players the covid year presents an opportunity to continue their development, chase a championship, make a few NIL $$$ and better prepare themselves for the pros. Kaitlyn Chen at UConn, Kat Westbeld at ND and Te-Hina Paopao of SC were all projected as potential 1st or 2nd round picks during the past WNBA draft. By running it forward for another year in college at a top program, they are all well-positioned for a run at a championship, some NIL $$$ and a possible future in the W.

Immediate Transfer Eligibility – The process that led to the establishment of the Transfer Portal, immediate eligibility for a 1st-time transfer and now immediate eligibility no matter how many times a player transfers has dramatically reshaped college sports in general and WBB specifically. In the past, players typically elected to transfer and sit out a year in search of more playing time or they were unhappy at their current school. For each of the past 4 seasons, over 1,000 D1 WBB players entered the Transfer Portal, reaching an all-time high of 1,399 this past season. While players still transfer in search of PT and/or happiness, we are now witnessing the transfer of star players in search of championships and/or better compensation. This past season alone, Kiki Iriafen, Raegan Beers, Georgia Amore, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Timea Gardiner, Laila Phelia, Aaronette Vonleh, Talia von Oelhoffen, Deja Kelly and Janiah Barker are just some of the players that were absolute stars with their former programs who have all decided that the “grass is greener” somewhere else.

Collapse of the PAC-12 & Conference consolidation – As the P5 conferences continue to consolidate into what may eventually be the P2, the venerable Pac-12, which dates back over 100 years, closed-up shop this past season. This coming season OR, UCLA, USC & WA are headed for the Big 10; AZ, ASU, CO & UT to the Big 12; CA & Stan to the ACC, OSU & WSU were left standing when the music stopped and legendary coach Tara VanDerveer decided it was time to hang up her coach’s whistle. Lots of player movement both within and out of the former Pac 12 schools. No team got hit worse than 27-8 OSU, who ended up in the Mountain West Conference. OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal, including 3 talented starters.

NIL & House vs NCAA Settlement – While the ability of talented college athletes to earn money based on their name, image and likeness seemed fair enough, nobody was prepared for the earthshaking upheaval that has resulted from the fast-changing rules, or lack thereof, relative to college athlete compensation. Initially designed to permit advertisers like Gatorade or State Farm to sign endorsement contracts with college athletes like Paige Bueckers or Caitlin Clark, NIL quickly devolved into NIL Alumni Collectives, agents, shadowy middlemen and bidding wars over HS recruits as well as college transfers. The recent story of Aaliyah Chavez, the #1 recruit in the Class of 2025 asking for a cool $1 million in NIL to sign a LOI has to send chills through college basketball coaches everywhere. Add in the historic $2.8 billion House vs NCAA settlement between the P5 conferences to provide compensation to former athletes and direct pay to current athletes, with no salary cap, and it’s pretty clear that the schools with the most money will eventually field the best teams.

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season. I am certain the BY will voice lots of opinions on my selections, so here they are:

• SC
• UCLA
• USC
• ND
• LSU
• UConn

In addition to bringing in more than their share of top HS recruits, each of these teams have either secured star players in the transfer portal, including from the collapse of the Pac12, and/or taken advantage of the Covid 5th year to substantially improve their rosters. I suspect that the players on these teams will all be "fairly-compensated", however that plays out. There are probably other teams I have overlooked, which I suspect the BY will advise me about. But for the foreseeable future, when it comes to WBB, the rich will be getting much, much richer.

One final note. Of the 6 teams that I list, UConn has followed the most conventional route by far. Of the 14 players on the Huskies roster this coming season, only one did not arrive to UConn as a freshman. Kaitlyn Chen transferred from Princeton to Storrs using her 5th year of eligibility (covid year). The Ivy League does not permit a covid year, so Kaitlyn could not have played a 5th year at Princeton had she wanted to. As for Paige in her 5th year at UConn and Aubrey in her 6th, technically both would be eligible to play this year under long standing red shirt rules for injured athletes. So, before anyone asks, YES both Paige and Aubrey could conceivably return to UConn again next year to compete for a 6th and 7th season respectively. NOW THAT WOULD BE A SUPER TEAM!!!

Fantastic post,very well written and to the point. I have some reservations about UCLA and Notre Dame as a super power. Neither won 30 games last year and both lost 7 times. Not a super power numbers. I will wait for this season to end before giving that distinction. As far as the rest, only South Carolina and Uconn I consider as a super power because they have a super power coaching staff. Uconn has an advantage because they have Geno and Chris and the others don't. I give Dawn Staley credit for being a great coach, but not up to Geno's ability. In my opinion, this year will be a 2 team race to the N.C. with Uconn more favorable over Dawn. As Geno once said "we have Diana, they don't", I say "we have Geno, they don't". GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[oldude]

I think I follow and agree with the thrust of your post. But it leaves me with a few conundrums.

• I was not under the impression that Geno relies on an alumni collective to fund NIL offers. This means that he does not recruit with salary negotiations. He mainly offers them a chance to grow, to be part of a team culture, to learn self-discipline, and a path to a career.
• Paige and Azzi were NIL pioneers, and didn't come because of a salary offer. They also built small fortunes for themselves and helped team mates along this path, but they did it on their own, not through a collective.
• I seem to recall hearing something about how UConn players would get a percentage of merch sold in the student store if it was team branded or had their names on it. I gather a some other teams do this too, but it hardly compares to the individual deals a few have made on their own.
• If I'm right about this, then UConn's tenure as a "super team" is not really comparable to the others, if those teams actually offer a salary for nothing other than playing. Has UConn's policy changed recently? If it hasn't, and the other teams actually do all this, UConn may not number among the super teams for long after Geno leaves.
• I favor NIL rights for student athletes -- really for all students -- simply because they are a form of property right and we have constitutional guarantees about rights like that. Also, it seems to me that the NCAA (and the conferences) have profited enormously from selling such property out from under the students. Yes, a scholarship is something like a quid pro quo, but the pro was their play on the court, not the property of their persons. Also, it was non-negotiable and clearly a very bad bargain for some of these students.
• I don't favor 'pay for play' as it seems to cheapen everything about college sports needlessly. It's one thing to say students and student athletes should be allowed to sell something that belongs to them, and another to say that a shadowy organization of alums should guarantee a return even if not all students NIL property is equally valuable. And it gets even worse when the collective turns its attention to attracting adolescent star athletes with salary offers. The notion of a team culture and shared sacrifice will not long survive this. Pro teams can have a sort of camaraderie and this is sort of like team culture, but very many of them do not even have this.
• I wonder how much of the current allure of playing for UConn is because of Geno and his genius, how much comes from the reputation he has built for preparing players for the W, how much comes from the names of the greats hanging in the halls of Worth and Gampel, and how much of it is currently the result of the charisma and star power of Paige and Azzi.
• Once Paige and Azzi leave, how much will the allure of UConn be diminished. Players came to UConn in the past because of Rebecca or Sue or Diana or Maya long after they had gone on to careers in the pros. But that was before NIL clouded all the issues surrounding recruitment. We currently get kids who report having dreamt of coming to UConn since they were little kids. Will this effect also fade away?
• I love UConn and the culture Geno has built here and I will be very sorry to see it come to an end if or when that happens. We in the BY all love every single kid who comes to Storrs, and there is large following outside of our group. We may remain constant, but that larger following will fade over the years after Geno and the tradition of dominance slips into hazy memory. And fewer kids will grow up dreaming of playing at Storrs. In that case, salary negotiations may end up being the only competitive recruiting tool a future coach will have.

As a college professor, I have lots of reasons to resent an athletic department for its intrusions into the academic life and learning of some of my students. Or of how, at other institutions, the Athletic Department often seems to be the tail wagging the dog. Many of my colleagues feel this way. But I love watching young people strive for greatness in every way, not just in the classroom. And an athletic department that respects limits and treats students well will always have my respect. UConn is one of these.

I am fairly certain that UConn has an alumni collective funding NIL for some athletes. I think other BY’ers with closer ties to the University can probably fill in for the details.

 

[Bone Dog]

I am fairly certain that UConn has an alumni collective funding NIL for some athletes. I think other BY’ers with closer ties to the University can probably fill in for the details.

I only know of the BleedForBlue collective. But I hadn't heard that they were funding salary offers. As far as I know, they mainly arrange for introductions to potential endorsement sources and they also create events to get players greater exposure in the area, at charitable events for example. If I'm wrong about this, I'm happy to be corrected.

 

[CTBballfan243]

E

I think I follow and agree with the thrust of your post. But it leaves me with a few conundrums.

• I was not under the impression that Geno relies on an alumni collective to fund NIL offers. This means that he does not recruit with salary negotiations. He mainly offers them a chance to grow, to be part of a team culture, to learn self-discipline, and a path to a career.
• Paige and Azzi were NIL pioneers, and didn't come because of a salary offer. They also built small fortunes for themselves and helped team mates along this path, but they did it on their own, not through a collective.
• I seem to recall hearing something about how UConn players would get a percentage of merch sold in the student store if it was team branded or had their names on it. I gather a some other teams do this too, but it hardly compares to the individual deals a few have made on their own.
• If I'm right about this, then UConn's tenure as a "super team" is not really comparable to the others, if those teams actually offer a salary for nothing other than playing. Has UConn's policy changed recently? If it hasn't, and the other teams actually do all this, UConn may not number among the super teams for long after Geno leaves.
• I favor NIL rights for student athletes -- really for all students -- simply because they are a form of property right and we have constitutional guarantees about rights like that. Also, it seems to me that the NCAA (and the conferences) have profited enormously from selling such property out from under the students. Yes, a scholarship is something like a quid pro quo, but the pro was their play on the court, not the property of their persons. Also, it was non-negotiable and clearly a very bad bargain for some of these students.
• I don't favor 'pay for play' as it seems to cheapen everything about college sports needlessly. It's one thing to say students and student athletes should be allowed to sell something that belongs to them, and another to say that a shadowy organization of alums should guarantee a return even if not all students NIL property is equally valuable. And it gets even worse when the collective turns its attention to attracting adolescent star athletes with salary offers. The notion of a team culture and shared sacrifice will not long survive this. Pro teams can have a sort of camaraderie and this is sort of like team culture, but very many of them do not even have this.
• I wonder how much of the current allure of playing for UConn is because of Geno and his genius, how much comes from the reputation he has built for preparing players for the W, how much comes from the names of the greats hanging in the halls of Worth and Gampel, and how much of it is currently the result of the charisma and star power of Paige and Azzi.
• Once Paige and Azzi leave, how much will the allure of UConn be diminished. Players came to UConn in the past because of Rebecca or Sue or Diana or Maya long after they had gone on to careers in the pros. But that was before NIL clouded all the issues surrounding recruitment. We currently get kids who report having dreamt of coming to UConn since they were little kids. Will this effect also fade away?
• I love UConn and the culture Geno has built here and I will be very sorry to see it come to an end if or when that happens. We in the BY all love every single kid who comes to Storrs, and there is large following outside of our group. We may remain constant, but that larger following will fade over the years after Geno and the tradition of dominance slips into hazy memory. And fewer kids will grow up dreaming of playing at Storrs. In that case, salary negotiations may end up being the only competitive recruiting tool a future coach will have.

As a college professor, I have lots of reasons to resent an athletic department for its intrusions into the academic life and learning of some of my students. Or of how, at other institutions, the Athletic Department often seems to be the tail wagging the dog. Many of my colleagues feel this way. But I love watching young people strive for greatness in every way, not just in the classroom. And an athletic department that respects limits and treats students well will always have my respect. UConn is one of these.

Eventually no one is going to be able to compete with the SEC, and B1G. No one will be able to compete with $$ that the SEC and B1G will be able to throw around to attract players and coaches and to spend on facilities. Bottom line, if you are relegated you would be able to compete. Basically you will be considered a lower tier of athletics. The new world order in college athletics is coming.

 

[Just.A.Fan]

Thank you @oldude and @Bone Dog for all the information and opinions. It was greatly appreciated..

 

[tchalla1]

Through the years WBB has produced its share of dominant programs. The recipe starts with a great coach and recruiter, a championship team or two, a process that reloads recruiting talent year after year, develops them into “pro-ready” players and continues to win or compete for more championships. Undoubtedly, UConn WBB, more than any other program, has employed this formula to achieve unparalleled success.

In addition, WBB had a limited pool of great players who gravitated to top programs. Unlike MBB where “one and done” is often the rule for the very top recruits, the W limits eligibility to players who are either 22 years of age, completed their college eligibility or have graduated from a 4-year college. Finally, transfers used to be required to sit out a year. These restrictions funneled the very best players to the very best programs where they typically remained for 4 years.

Over the past 5 years or so there have been several significant changes that have forever altered the landscape of college sports. While the talent pool in WBB has grown, the top teams still get many, if not most, of the top recruits. More importantly, the changes that have altered the landscape of college sports have resulted in what can best be described as “the rise of Super teams in WBB.”

The Covid Year – While this will be the last season where 5 years of eligibility will be granted to any player that was in college during the 2019-2020 season, the extra covid year has resulted in hundreds of players putting off the inevitable decision to get on with their lives after college. For most of these players, pro ball is not a realistic option, so why not stay in college for an extra year? But for a handful of highly talented players the covid year presents an opportunity to continue their development, chase a championship, make a few NIL $$$ and better prepare themselves for the pros. Kaitlyn Chen at UConn, Kat Westbeld at ND and Te-Hina Paopao of SC were all projected as potential 1st or 2nd round picks during the past WNBA draft. By running it forward for another year in college at a top program, they are all well-positioned for a run at a championship, some NIL $$$ and a possible future in the W.

Immediate Transfer Eligibility – The process that led to the establishment of the Transfer Portal, immediate eligibility for a 1st-time transfer and now immediate eligibility no matter how many times a player transfers has dramatically reshaped college sports in general and WBB specifically. In the past, players typically elected to transfer and sit out a year in search of more playing time or they were unhappy at their current school. For each of the past 4 seasons, over 1,000 D1 WBB players entered the Transfer Portal, reaching an all-time high of 1,399 this past season. While players still transfer in search of PT and/or happiness, we are now witnessing the transfer of star players in search of championships and/or better compensation. This past season alone, Kiki Iriafen, Raegan Beers, Georgia Amore, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Timea Gardiner, Laila Phelia, Aaronette Vonleh, Talia von Oelhoffen, Deja Kelly and Janiah Barker are just some of the players that were absolute stars with their former programs who have all decided that the “grass is greener” somewhere else.

Collapse of the PAC-12 & Conference consolidation – As the P5 conferences continue to consolidate into what may eventually be the P2, the venerable Pac-12, which dates back over 100 years, closed-up shop this past season. This coming season OR, UCLA, USC & WA are headed for the Big 10; AZ, ASU, CO & UT to the Big 12; CA & Stan to the ACC, OSU & WSU were left standing when the music stopped and legendary coach Tara VanDerveer decided it was time to hang up her coach’s whistle. Lots of player movement both within and out of the former Pac 12 schools. No team got hit worse than 27-8 OSU, who ended up in the Mountain West Conference. OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal, including 3 talented starters.

NIL & House vs NCAA Settlement – While the ability of talented college athletes to earn money based on their name, image and likeness seemed fair enough, nobody was prepared for the earthshaking upheaval that has resulted from the fast-changing rules, or lack thereof, relative to college athlete compensation. Initially designed to permit advertisers like Gatorade or State Farm to sign endorsement contracts with college athletes like Paige Bueckers or Caitlin Clark, NIL quickly devolved into NIL Alumni Collectives, agents, shadowy middlemen and bidding wars over HS recruits as well as college transfers. The recent story of Aaliyah Chavez, the #1 recruit in the Class of 2025 asking for a cool $1 million in NIL to sign a LOI has to send chills through college basketball coaches everywhere. Add in the historic $2.8 billion House vs NCAA settlement between the P5 conferences to provide compensation to former athletes and direct pay to current athletes, with no salary cap, and it’s pretty clear that the schools with the most money will eventually field the best teams.

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season. I am certain the BY will voice lots of opinions on my selections, so here they are:

• SC
• UCLA
• USC
• ND
• LSU
• UConn

In addition to bringing in more than their share of top HS recruits, each of these teams have either secured star players in the transfer portal, including from the collapse of the Pac12, and/or taken advantage of the Covid 5th year to substantially improve their rosters. I suspect that the players on these teams will all be "fairly-compensated", however that plays out. There are probably other teams I have overlooked, which I suspect the BY will advise me about. But for the foreseeable future, when it comes to WBB, the rich will be getting much, much richer.

One final note. Of the 6 teams that I list, UConn has followed the most conventional route by far. Of the 14 players on the Huskies roster this coming season, only one did not arrive to UConn as a freshman. Kaitlyn Chen transferred from Princeton to Storrs using her 5th year of eligibility (covid year). The Ivy League does not permit a covid year, so Kaitlyn could not have played a 5th year at Princeton had she wanted to. As for Paige in her 5th year at UConn and Aubrey in her 6th, technically both would be eligible to play this year under long standing red shirt rules for injured athletes. So, before anyone asks, YES both Paige and Aubrey could conceivably return to UConn again next year to compete for a 6th and 7th season respectively. NOW THAT WOULD BE A SUPER TEAM!!!

An excellent analysis of WBB and its not-so-distant future! Although it is my exceeding desire and hope, and perhaps it is naive to hope this, but I hope the women's game does not emulate the men's and inevitably disfigure their game which is immanently a much superior product than the men's game.. The men's sport except for notable exceptions, is largely dissipating. The Final Four which once was the crown jewel of all sports, has lost a lot of its luster...

But the NIL feature and as you mentioned along with immediate transfer eligibility, which admittedly, I was an advocate for both--because I am first and foremost, an advocate of student athletes--unfortunately, these features will help to accelerate the causal factors of decay for WBB--just as they did to the men's game. Yes, I think you are 100 percent correct--we are in dawning of the Super Team era.

Perhaps the only preventative measure and saving grace in the WBB is the fact that we probably won't be seeing the "One-And-Done" phenomenon as in the men's game--at the moment. As I've said many times, we can't fault young women for being capitalists in this capitalistic society of ours, nor can we reasonably expect individuals to be stewards of the game and do things that are in the best interest of the overall game while putting aside their respective Indvidual best interests.

However, NIL in the college game presents perhaps the one and only time that an athlete or anybody for that matter, can enjoy immediate and unadulterated unrestricted free agency... Enjoy it, Ladies, as it will forever change your game.

 

[oldude]

One other comment about “super teams.” To some extent, the requirement for college coaches to spend years recruiting top HS players has been substantially minimized by liberal transfer rules. Coaches from top programs with hefty NIL budgets can simply jump into the transfer portal at the end of the season and pickup 2-3 top “college ready” transfers. Easy peasy lemon squeezy…

 

[visitingcock]

• I seem to recall hearing something about how UConn players would get a percentage of merch sold in the student store if it was team branded or had their names on it. I gather a some other teams do this too, but it hardly compares to the individual deals a few have made on their own.
• 
  
• .

If any school is not sharing the profits from merchandise sales with the players they are gonna have legal problems. If UConn sold a #5 Bueckers jersey or poster, or keychain etc., she is entitled to be compensated for name and likeness. That's what started all the current mess. Now, there is some question whether UConn has to pay anything for a #5 jersey without her name on it, (but would that sell?)

The question is how are they compensated? Does Paige get a percentage based upon sales of her number. Does Azzi? Or, do they contract with the schools so that every player gets a percentage for all team jerseys and posters sold then divide it equally? It is rumored that SCar does the latter so that the lowest ranked freshman gets the same as the senior All American. Same with NIL collective money. Therein lies the notion of "salary."

Of course the real money is made of of things like endorsements that are paid by third parties, not the school. Although not paid by the schools, this is the area that worries me the most. Let's say you're an Aliyah Chavez visiting a South Carolina and are told "You will get $ 50,000 "salary" plus you could get a lot of money for endorsements - but we don't know how much? Let's say she visits LSU and is told "You won't get much "salary" but we've got folks here from Boudreax's Butt Paste and they are gonna pay you $500,000 dollars that you don't have to share with anybody." I don't care if she gets the Butt Paste endorsement but I don't want to see prearranged endorsements becoming part of the recruiting and , even scarier, the transfer process

 

[Boreifs]

One other comment about “super teams.” To some extent, the requirement for college coaches to spend years recruiting top HS players has been substantially minimized by liberal transfer rules. Coaches from top programs with hefty NIL budgets can simply jump into the transfer portal at the end of the season and pickup 2-3 top “college ready” transfers. Easy peasy lemon squeezy…

The strongest evidence of this is seeing the HS Class of 2025 on Hoopgurlz. So far, almost everyone has recruited only one player because coaches want to keep slots open for transfers, who have college experience and are so much easier to evaluate. Mid level high school recruits will have no chance of getting solid offers from anywhere but mid level majors and D2 programs.

 

[sun]

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season. I am certain the BY will voice lots of opinions on my selections, so here they are:

• SC
• UCLA
• USC
• ND
• LSU
• UConn

On Spet 15, 2024, BetMGM listed Texas as havng higher odds of winning the 2025 NC than ND, UCLA & LSU.
Texas is listed as being the 4th highest highest rated team to win the 2025 NC.

Women’s College Basketball Odds: 2025 National Championship

With the increasing popularity of women’s college basketball, some bettors are interested in NCAAW odds. Here’s the national championship market at BetMGM.

sports.betmgm.com

Another undated NC odds page of lists Texas as being the 2nd highest team to win the NC behind only South Carolina.
It lists Texas as being ahead of UConn, ND, USC, UCLA, NC State, Stanford & LSU in that order.

2025 NCAA Women's Basketball National Championship Odds

Texas appears to be getting the attention of the oddsmakers.

 

[visitingcock]

On Spet 15, 2024, BetMGM listed Texas as havng higher odds of winning the 2025 NC than ND, UCLA & LSU.
Texas is listed as being the 4th highest highest rated team to win the 2025 NC.

Women’s College Basketball Odds: 2025 National Championship

With the increasing popularity of women’s college basketball, some bettors are interested in NCAAW odds. Here’s the national championship market at BetMGM.

sports.betmgm.com

Another undated NC odds page of lists Texas as being the 2nd highest team to win the NC behind only South Carolina.
It lists Texas as being ahead of UConn, ND, USC, UCLA, NC State, Stanford & LSU in that order.

2025 NCAA Women's Basketball National Championship Odds

Texas appears to be getting the attention of the oddsmakers.

Odds makers don’t set odds based on who they think will win. They set odds on who they think bettors think will win.

 

[sun]

Odds makers don’t set odds based on who they think will win. They set odds on who they think bettors think will win.

ESPN's preseason poll of Sept. 25, 2024 has Texas ranked 5th ahead of ND & LSU.

Women's Way-Too-Early Top 25: South Carolina stays No. 1, Maryland makes it in

With just over a month left until the season begins, where the best teams fall in behind the Gamecocks -- including the Terrapins.

www.espn.com

ON3's pre-season poll of May 25, 2024 has Texas ranked 4th ahead of ND, UCLA & LSU.
They also ranked USC #1, SCar #2 & UConn #3.

On3's post-spring Women's Basketball Top 25 rankings

As we inch closer to the 2024-25 season, On3's Talia Goodman reveals her post-spring women's college basketball Top 25 rankings.

www.on3.com

Includng Texas in the top tier of this year's teams seems to be a valid opinion & a consensus among various experts.
Do you agree with Texas being included in the top tier or why not?

 

[visitingcock]

Last year final four: SCar, Iowa, UConn and NC state. No top 20 commitments

Iowa # 22
UConn # 28 and two more lower 50s ( though I trust Geno’s evaluation more than any ranking service)
SCar no commitments no leans
NC State one unranked commitment

In early October 2021, Scar and UConn had like 4 top 20s- mostly top 10s!
.

 

[Skeets]

Odds makers don’t set odds based on who they think will win. They set odds on who they think bettors think will win.

Not quite right. Odds are set to keep the "books" in balance. Profits are maximized when there's exactly the same amount of winners and losers. It's always about profits. Ironically the people in this business do not gamble, they are "business men".

 

[oldude]

After taking a look at the Longhorns roster, I have to agree with a number of BY’ers who suggest that TX should be on my list of WBB Superteams. They have 3 talented transfers, several 5th year players, a superstar in Harmon and Madison Booker is the “real deal.”

 

[visitingcock]

After taking a look at the Longhorns roster, I have to agree with a number of BY’ers who suggest that TX should be on my list of WBB Superteams. They have 3 talented transfers, several 5th year players, a superstar in Harmon and Madison Booker is the “real deal.”

And, unlike Notre Dame and UCLA, Texas has a coach who has experienced winning during the final four madness.

EDIT: Gottleib has been to a final 4 but hasnt won a FF game

 

[bballnut90]

Last year final four: SCar, Iowa, UConn and NC state. No top 20 commitments

Iowa # 22
UConn # 28 and two more lower 50s ( though I trust Geno’s evaluation more than any ranking service)
SCar no commitments no leans
NC State one unranked commitment

In early October 2021, Scar and UConn had like 4 top 20s- mostly top 10s!
.

To be fair, go back one year and both programs had strong recruiting hauls for 2022/2023/2024. I think people in general over react to an “off” recruiting year (ex potentially SC in 2025, LSU for 2024) but the reality is if you land a big class or 2, you usually don’t need to follow it up with a strong class since you have good pieces in place for the next few years.

Arguably UCONN’s weakest class ever was 2013 (only landed Saniya Chong) and they went 152-2 during her career there, primarily due to strong 2012 and 2014/2015 classes.

Similarly, South Carolina’s underwhelming 2020 class was close to winning 4 titles if not for a missed layup + a 40 bomb from Caitlin Clark.

 

[nwhoopfan]

To be fair, go back one year and both programs had strong recruiting hauls for 2022/2023/2024. I think people in general over react to an “off” recruiting year (ex potentially SC in 2025, LSU for 2024) but the reality is if you land a big class or 2, you usually don’t need to follow it up with a strong class since you have good pieces in place for the next few years.

Arguably UCONN’s weakest class ever was 2013 (only landed Saniya Chong) and they went 152-2 during her career there, primarily due to strong 2012 and 2014/2015 classes.

Similarly, South Carolina’s underwhelming 2020 class was close to winning 4 titles if not for a missed layup + a 40 bomb from Caitlin Clark.

How dare you try to keep people from panicking if they don't land a top 5 class every single year.

 

[Stagnant]

When I think of super teams. Southern California is the team I think of. I think the primary way they have become a super team is through NIL. I think they have other appealing qualities. But I think NIL is mostly how they are getting it done. They are not my team. And I am hoping conference realignment and travel are what derails them. I think UConn has gone west during the regular season and laid eggs before. And I am hoping when usc has to fly to chilly penn state in January or February (example); something similar will happen.

All of this is to say. So, there are programs building super teams. But we are in the early stages of that process and we can’t be sure how it will work out.

 

[Stagnant]

For the record, I don’t believe UConn is building super teams. Maybe they did in the past, but no longer.

I have a theory on uconn recruiting and it deserves a separate post. (Then my usc post above).

I am just speculating. But I think UConn wants to have a lot of international players on the roster, because they think those players will be easier to retain if Geno retires. They don’t want a scenario where 6 players hit the portal when he leaves the program.

 

[bballnut90]

How dare you try to keep people from panicking if they don't land a top 5 class every single year.

Lol seriously. High school recruiting has become an overrated facet with the prevalence of transfers too. Most championship teams now rely heavily on the portal to bring in important pieces. Looking at the last several champions you have:
2024: Final Four MOP Cardoso was a transfer (as was Tehina Pao Pao)
2023: Virtually LSU's entire roster was transfers including Final Four MOP Angel Reese
2022: South Carolina was mostly HS recruits
2021: Stanford was mostly HS recruits
2019: Final Four MOP Chloe Jackson was a transfer
2018: Notre Dame relied heavily on transfer Jessica Shepard (who probably should've been MOP from a statistical standpoint)

So in summary, 4 of the last 6 championship teams relied heavily on the transfer portal to bring in key pieces. Looking at the top teams this year, teams in the projected top 7 (South Carolina, UCONN, USC, UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame and LSU) all will likely rely heavily transfers this upcoming season (with UCONN being the potential outlier who doesn't). So moral of the story, even if you aren't landing top kids from HS ranks, if you can pull in good transfers, you can still win titles.

 

[TC22]

SC isn’t bidding for players I assure you. They do have a pretty good NIL package from a collective because at SC you can specify what sport you want to give to. Dawn gives each player the opportunity to “work” for their share of the collective money. Each player also has their own endorsements, with Raven and MiLaysia Fulwiley being the most visible.