THE Real Edsal Numbers

[RUSS56]

His coming back to Uconn has made me go back and look at my analysis of Uconn when he was the coach. I only kept the records of 2004-2010 when Uconn joined the FBS. We tend to think he was really good winning 7,8,9 games a year (most seasons). What is forgotten s where the wins came from, and it is pretty eye-opening. Not at all what you would expect. here are the numbers, you be the judge:

OVERALL RECORD: 50-38

A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT I LIST AS QUALITY OF WIN, it helps me find over/under rated teams in a given year, here is what I had from Edsal and Uconn:

OPPONENT UCONN W/L OPPONENT RECORD IN UCONN WIN
FCS 7-0 N/A
AKRON 1-0 4-8
ARMY 3-0 9-25
BAYLOR 2-0 8-16
BUFFALO 4-0 10-36
DUKE 2-0 3-20
IND 1-0 5-7
ND 1-0 6-6
OHIO U. 1-0 9-5
TOLEDO 1-0 9-4
SC 1-0 9-5
VANDY 1-0 2-10
TEMPLE 3-1 10-26
SYRACUSE 5-2 18-42
S. FLA 4-2 31-20
PITT 4-3 27-22
LOUISVILLE 3-3 15-21
VIRGINIA 1-1 5-7
CINN 2-4 15-11
RUTGERS 2-5 12-12
W.VA 1-6 9-4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 50-38 216-307 .413

** 7 wins vs FBS so 43-38 against teams that were 216-307

Number of teams they beat that had a 10 win season (including post-season) 1
Number of teams they beat that had a winning season (including bowls) 11
Number of teams they beat that were .500 or less or FCS (including bowls) 37
Number of teams they beat that had 4 wins or less 28

NOTES:

This team is vastly over-rated. Most of the wins come against scrap teams (74%), the overall record is very decieving
Seem to take care of business in winnable games, but wins on average 1.36 games a year vs a winning team
That stat places them in the bottom 15% o all teams with a winning record over the 7 yr period

That certainly sheds some light on where they were under Edsal, win yes, quality wins, very few (1.36 per season)

The Maryland numbers were no different:

2011-14 and 6 games in 2016:

22 wins:

5-0 vs FCS
17 other wins vs teams that went on to a combined 95-124 in the season MD beat them
6 wins vs teams that finished better than .500
11 vs those finishing .500 or worse, plus the 5 vs FCS schools so 17/22 wins were vs scrap teams.
he had 0 wins vs a team that finished with more than 8 wins, including their Bowl games.

So we fire Bob Diaco because he lost 13-89 in his last 3 -76 net points
So Maryland fired Edsal because he lost 34-122 his last 3 -88 net points

Obviously in each case those numbers contributed to the firing, not the total reason for it.

See, the media, the presser, the AD, etal. has many bought in to how good this is. It's good if you want a baby sitter, that stabilizes your program. If that is what your ceiling is hopeful of being, you probably got what you want.

Here is the issue however. He is here for 3 years at least. The landscape in NCAA football is fluid, and the windows of opportunity, are going to come and go quickly. If your a 5-7 to 9-3 team (which is more likely the case, than least likely), your sure to be left behind.

Edsal, to my knowledge had 0 head coaching interviews, or job offers, ever wonder why?

 

[Stray_Dog]

We may not make it into a P-5 but the direction we were in the coaching prospects we had/have coupled with the available funds...at least Edsal brings back a happier time, and perhaps the NFL UConn alumni will be proud to shout out that they played for UConn. When other recruits see a potential for going to play on Sunday's...maybe and it's just a maybe they decide to come to UConn. Does the AD work with admissions to help Edsal? Does HCRE bring in good coordinators. One thing I don't see him doing is making complaints / executes in his first 2 years. So yah, I am behind him and largely because his old players are behind him! They lived it while I got to see only a small part. The small part I saw, I admit I liked. And no I wasn't always happy and no I didn't like the offensive schemes, but what did we have. A coach who knew our strengths and didn't like talking about our weaknesses. What can you do about them anyway?

 

[FDNY99]

One thing I always remembered about Edsall was that he wanted to play the best competition OOC as he could. He liked MAC teams (which I agree are good OOC games over FCS schools) and I can only imagine his answer if Warde had asked him about his input on the Holy Cross series.

 

[uconndogs]

That's a good analysis. To me it showed that Edsall's teams won the games they should have. Moreover, his teams were almost always well prepared and competitive.

Where are we now? We could not put a winning record together against any of that list. Folks had better understand that by the end of this last season we may very well have been the worst team in the BCS. It would also not surprise me in the least if Diaco screwed the roster with his recruiting.

Edsall is a solid choice to rebuild.

 

[huskymedic]

It's EDSALL Mrs Diaco... E-D-S-A-L-L.

 

[uconnphil2016]

That honestly looks pretty good. impressive record against USF and Pitt, two good programs. We beat teams who we were better than almost every time. Heck, undefeated against FCS hasnt been feasible since RE. Could have done better against Rutty and Cincy, but we have always sucked against Cincy.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I'm curious as to what Schiano's real numbers look like. Al Golden's as well.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Did you know that Edsall didnt win a national title? HE MUST BE TRASH

 

[Papadukes]

I'm not happy Randy is back but who the hell wanted the job. Absolutely no one. The guy at best is a babysitter. I'll come around to it and it won't take long. He left it got worse and then it was the worst. He will win winnable games, maybe a surprise win, we go to a bowl and guys play in the NFL. He will run a clean program and will be a huge step up from where we are. No one wanted the job and we could have done a lot worse. I'm gonna support the players and Randy will make us way better than we've been lately Go Huskies

 

[metsfan2323]

I'm curious as to what Schiano's real numbers look like. Al Golden's as well.

Yup, the same type of analysis can be used to throw cold water on most coaches records. Schiano was always good for three wins per year vs crap competition and Schiano never won the Big East title even though he was presumed to be a better recruiter (Shady).

 

[Bootsthemonkey]

"Number of teams they beat that had a 10 win season (including post-season) 1"

If your opponent had a 10+ win season, that means nobody else was beating them very much either.

 

[dwalks93]

Two weeks ago UConn was arguably the worst football team in the American Conference with a coach clearly in over his head, who had lost control of the team and no reason to believe next year would be any better. Most posters believed there was no money to buy out Diaco and not enough money to pay a credible replacement even if one would agree to come to UConn. In fact, next year looked like a lost season, waiting to fire Diaco while the fan base and team slowly dissolved.

Yet, in one masterful stroke, Athletic Director Dave was able to find the money to relieve Diaco, upgrade to Edsall and negotiate a 3 years incentive laden $ 1 million contract with no buy out required at the end of 3 years.

Posters can bash UConn hiring Edsall all they want but there was no better option for UConn. There were not candidates lining up to come to UConn and there wasn't money to pay them if they would come here.

I get it...this new found bag of gold is so heavy and it does not seem as full as some would like but we are 1000% better than when the season ended. How about we give Edsall a couple of years before we break out the pitchforks and start wondering why Chip Kelly won't come here?

 

[BlueDogs]

Two weeks ago UConn was arguably the worst football team in the American Conference with a coach clearly in over his head, who had lost control of the team and no reason to believe next year would be any better. Most posters believed there was no money to buy out Diaco and not enough money to pay a credible replacement even if one would agree to come to UConn. In fact, next year looked like a lost season, waiting to fire Diaco while the fan base and team slowly dissolved.

Yet, in one masterful stroke, Athletic Director Dave was able to find the money to relieve Diaco, upgrade to Edsall and negotiate a 3 years incentive laden $ 1 million contract with no buy out required at the end of 3 years.

Posters can bash UConn hiring Edsall all they want but there was no better option for UConn. There were not candidates lining up to come to UConn and there wasn't money to pay them if they would come here.

I get it...this new found bag of gold is so heavy and it does not seem as full as some would like but we are 1000% better than when the season ended. How about we give Edsall a couple of years before we break out the pitchforks and start wondering why Chip Kelly won't come here?

It's like giving a guy on the right no of freezing to death a winter coat and he complains it's not a NorthFace.

 

[UCFBfan]

Edsal, to my knowledge had 0 head coaching interviews, or job offers, ever wonder why?

UConn is coming off 6 putrid seasons of football and has been passed over twice in CR most likely because of football. We are in a weak recruiting area and face a massive uphill battle. To my knowledge 0 of the "name" coaches had any interest in coming here. Ever wonder why?

 

[Dooley]

Considering that we haven't beaten the teams that we "are supposed to beat" for the past 6 seasons, I will welcome that back with open arms. Aside from WVU and Cincinnati, UConn fans felt like we could beat anyone on any given week in the Big East. I want that back in the AAC. We should be able to compete in our own AAC division and not lose blowout games at home to teams that "we are supposed to beat".

We need to get UConn back to how we played when Edsall left before we can worry about winning 8-10 games a year. Right now, I will take a slew of 5-7 win seasons and mediocre bowls most years. In a CR landscape, that will be enough to raise our P5 profile enough to get out of the AAC. We're not going anywhere finishing 3-9 or 2-10 and playing some of the most boring brand of football ever played.

 

[hardcorehusky]

In the press conference- Edsall did not come in here and talk about winning New Years Day bowls. He did talk about getting the Rent back up to 40k excited fans. Why? Because when CR comes back- the first thing the P5 will look at is attendance. 2nd will be record. How many times did we have to defend having under 30k a game? That is why this moves makes sense. People will come back to see a Randy Edsall coached team because we came out the first time and liked what we saw.

 

[FartMan69]

So we used to win more games on our schedule than we lost? That sounds terrible. Awful hire. Should have hired (insert big name here) who clearly has zero interest in coming here. It's going to make me sick being competitive

 

[Dove]

...Edsal, to my knowledge had 0 head coaching interviews, or job offers, ever wonder why?

Because he had a NFL job ergo wasn't looking?

 

[sdhusky]

His coming back to Uconn has made me go back and look at my analysis of Uconn when he was the coach. I only kept the records of 2004-2010 when Uconn joined the FBS. We tend to think he was really good winning 7,8,9 games a year (most seasons). What is forgotten s where the wins came from, and it is pretty eye-opening. Not at all what you would expect. here are the numbers, you be the judge:

OVERALL RECORD: 50-38

A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT I LIST AS QUALITY OF WIN, it helps me find over/under rated teams in a given year, here is what I had from Edsal and Uconn:

OPPONENT UCONN W/L OPPONENT RECORD IN UCONN WIN
FCS 7-0 N/A
AKRON 1-0 4-8
ARMY 3-0 9-25
BAYLOR 2-0 8-16
BUFFALO 4-0 10-36
DUKE 2-0 3-20
IND 1-0 5-7
ND 1-0 6-6
OHIO U. 1-0 9-5
TOLEDO 1-0 9-4
SC 1-0 9-5
VANDY 1-0 2-10
TEMPLE 3-1 10-26
SYRACUSE 5-2 18-42
S. FLA 4-2 31-20
PITT 4-3 27-22
LOUISVILLE 3-3 15-21
VIRGINIA 1-1 5-7
CINN 2-4 15-11
RUTGERS 2-5 12-12
W.VA 1-6 9-4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 50-38 216-307 .413

** 7 wins vs FBS so 43-38 against teams that were 216-307

Number of teams they beat that had a 10 win season (including post-season) 1
Number of teams they beat that had a winning season (including bowls) 11
Number of teams they beat that were .500 or less or FCS (including bowls) 37
Number of teams they beat that had 4 wins or less 28

NOTES:

This team is vastly over-rated. Most of the wins come against scrap teams (74%), the overall record is very decieving
Seem to take care of business in winnable games, but wins on average 1.36 games a year vs a winning team
That stat places them in the bottom 15% o all teams with a winning record over the 7 yr period

That certainly sheds some light on where they were under Edsal, win yes, quality wins, very few (1.36 per season)

The Maryland numbers were no different:

2011-14 and 6 games in 2016:

22 wins:

5-0 vs FCS
17 other wins vs teams that went on to a combined 95-124 in the season MD beat them
6 wins vs teams that finished better than .500
11 vs those finishing .500 or worse, plus the 5 vs FCS schools so 17/22 wins were vs scrap teams.
he had 0 wins vs a team that finished with more than 8 wins, including their Bowl games.

So we fire Bob Diaco because he lost 13-89 in his last 3 -76 net points
So Maryland fired Edsal because he lost 34-122 his last 3 -88 net points

Obviously in each case those numbers contributed to the firing, not the total reason for it.

See, the media, the presser, the AD, etal. has many bought in to how good this is. It's good if you want a baby sitter, that stabilizes your program. If that is what your ceiling is hopeful of being, you probably got what you want.

Here is the issue however. He is here for 3 years at least. The landscape in NCAA football is fluid, and the windows of opportunity, are going to come and go quickly. If your a 5-7 to 9-3 team (which is more likely the case, than least likely), your sure to be left behind.

Edsal, to my knowledge had 0 head coaching interviews, or job offers, ever wonder why?

But its still better to win those games than lose, right Mrs Diaco?

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Randy Edsall never beat Bama? HE MUST BE TRASH

 

[Stray_Dog]

Randy Edsall never beat Bama? HE MUST BE TRASH

Yah, what was AD Dave thinking, I mean he should have thrown all kinds of money at Lee Miles and then more money to get Chip Kelly as OC. Heck all I need are 6 numbers and I can get this to work all by "myselfs"

 

[RUSS56]

It is exactly what they want you to think, this thread just proved that. I guess every one is happy being an average team, because that is what you will get, kind of small thinking, but I get it, after Uconn has been pounded through 2 bad coaches, most are willing to accept peaking at 8 to 9 wins in good seasons, and 5,6 in bad ones. The problem is, the sand is running through the hour glass, and the reality is, the program thinks 2004-10 is comfort in 2017.....so back to where they were a decade ago. I will share this thought: Most defending Edsall, will be condemning him in 2-3yrs, watch. I will be glad to say I am wrong.

 

[sdhusky]

DUKE 2-0 3-20
IND 1-0 5-7
ND 1-0 6-6
SC 1-0 9-5
VANDY 1-0 2-10
TEMPLE 3-1 10-26
SYRACUSE 5-2 18-42
S. FLA 4-2 31-20
PITT 4-3 27-22
LOUISVILLE 3-3 15-21


You give me 25-11 against this group of BCS schools and I'll take it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@RUSS56 how about this: give me a list of your preferred candidate(s) and then run through this exercise and see what you find.

Would love to see the results.

 

[CTMike]

It is exactly what they want you to think, this thread just proved that. I guess every one is happy being an average team, because that is what you will get, kind of small thinking, but I get it, after Uconn has been pounded through 2 bad coaches, most are willing to accept peaking at 8 to 9 wins in good seasons, and 5,6 in bad ones. The problem is, the sand is running through the hour glass, and the reality is, the program thinks 2004-10 is comfort in 2017.....so back to where they were a decade ago. I will share this thought: Most defending Edsall, will be condemning him in 2-3yrs, watch. I will be glad to say I am wrong.

8-9 wins in good years and 5-6 in bad years is LIGHT YEARS better than where we are currently at - what about that don't you understand?