The Real Battle

[fcclaw613]

Behind the movement of schools in the conference realignment there is a bigger battle going on. That is the fight between ESPN, Fox Sports and the NBC Sports Network for programming content. ESPN (Disney) has never had anyone with the money that could match them in the acquisition of programming rights until News Corp finally made their mind up to move forward with “Fox Sports 1” as a serious competitor to ESPN. NBC Sports Network (Comcast) is but a bit player and is being hampered by Comcast making cuts across all of their broadcast platforms including the NBC broadcast network, MSNBC and Weather Channel. This being the case, it would be hard to imagine ESPN doing anything intentionally that would harm the ACC, a piece of their rights portfolio. Fox Sport’s purchase of 49% of the YES Network was as much a move to acquire more programming rights as it was to use as a hammer to make cable operators in the NYC DMA include the Big Ten Network in their basic tier. If you look at the major college landscape, Fox now has put their proposed new “Fox Sports 1” in a rather enviable position as they are entrenched in the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac 12. To top that, with 17 Fox Sports regional networks to add to their content portfolio, Fox Sports 1 is quickly amassing an array of content that will allow them to compete head to head with ESPN. Like ESPN, News Corp has the pull with MSOs (major system operators) to insure that their new 24 hour sport channel is on the basic tier so they too can feed from the “double trough” of monthly subscriber fees and advertising revenue. Although Comcast does not seem to be near as inclined to spend as aggressively on rights acquisition they do hold one card that in time they may well use against the other two and that is Comcast is the largest MSO in the country and could decide to take both ESPN and Fox Sports 1 off the basic tier. This would certainly trigger an antitrust suit but the chance of that succeeding continues to decline with the growth of digital media including the significant increase of connected television sets that deliver IPTV through apps where any school or conference could get a 24 hour linear channel on television sets in over 70 million households in the country without needing a cable channel as a delivery platform.

Although I have not seen the rights agreement between ESPN and the ACC, I have seen the agreement between a Division I conference out west and ESPN. That contract did contain a clause that spoke to renegotiation in the event the makeup of conference members changed. No doubt that Swofford has been on the phone with Bristol about the valuation of the current agreement without Maryland and what it would be if one or more institutions were added to the conference membership. They have to be sure that if any schools are added to the membership that the individual member revenue split is not reduced. I am not sure but you have to think there is a calculation being made by the ACC and ESPN as to what Maryland’s worth was in comparison to the school(s) being considered for membership.

In short, it is in ESPN’s interest to keep the ACC intact as it does not want see any of their schools leave for conferences that have Fox Sports as their primary rights holder. This is one of the reasons why you have to think that ESPN would love to see UCONN in the ACC as that would protect the value one of a very important asset, the rights to the ACC. UCONN not only solidifies the NYC DMA, it also strengthens other markets outside of Connecticut, mainly Providence and Boston. Schools and conferences are just pawns in a much larger game between major media concerns. Having dealt with each of them over the past eight years, my opinion is they are both incredibly predatory and care very little about the schools and even less for the fans that follow them. Why else has ESPN not hesitated to have lesser conference clients play games in the past on Tuesday and Wednesday nights?

 

[noeynox]

Part of what I took from this, is that there is now a party willing to go to measures to bring down the perceived value of the ACC, only ESPN will also be harmed by this because of how much they've invested in the ACC. This other party is doing this by encouraging the B1G, or Big 12 to take teams from the ACC. Or in other words, to do what ESPN has been encouraging the ACC to do to the Big East? Interesting.

 

[uchusky32]

So would Fox not try to lock up the Boston, Providence market itself by including BC and Uconn in the B1G? Seems like a race to secure the Northeast. Also surrounds the ACC in the NY market with Uconn and Rutgers competing against Cuse.

 

[fcclaw613]

Exactly. Turf war. Look what happened to the WAC. The reasons behind the disaster there are not the exact same as was seen in the Big East but the two parallel each other in a number of ways. ESPN had a deal with the WAC that paid their member schools about a million dollars each annually. The Mountain West came calling with their own network owned in part by Comcast. Oddly the Mountain West network did not have cable carriage in some their member institution's markets even though Comcast was the primary cable provider. Go figure. Even with the network's lack of carriage it provided its members more revenue than the WAC could ever give them under their ESPN deal. The Mountain West's network broke up this past June due to conference realignment impacting their membership. CBS Sports Network and NBC Sports Network picked up television distribution for most of the member schools. As we all know, the WAC was decimated and with the final WAC schools moving to the Mountain West after this academic year the conference is desparately trying to add any institution it can, regardless of location across the country. In fact, there was a move to bring in a number of east coast schools, many transitioning from FCS to FBS in order to create a WAC East Division. After those FBS schools looked at the idea they waited instead for Conference USA and the Sun Belt to come calling. The WAC has more or less failed in that effort to add FCS schools and if it does survive in some form it will be totally irrevelant in Division I. Although the situation was not exactly the same, the WAC gave us all a glimpse of the how the game is played. We now see things being played out with much larger schools that represent tremendously more money.

 

[coachcap]

Question for clarification: You mentioned "17 Fox Sports regional networks." Aren't those now Comcast NBC Sports networks? e.g. Sportchannel New England, which broadcast Hartford Whaler, Boston Celtics, & Pac-10 Football games became Fox Sports New England. It is now Comcast Sportsnet-New England.

 

[Rumrunner]

For the same reason that the ACC needs UConn to help BC, Syracuse and Pitt retain a greater northeast presence, if the Big 10 were smart it would take UConn and BC. That would marginalize Pitt and Syracuse that much more.

Syracuse would be relegated to the arctic outpost of the ACC that it deserves.

I still think that the end game depends upon the Big 10's desire to capture the northeast or to go south. The risk in going south is much greater than in going north. At this point the Big 10 doesn't need to gamble. Until hope is lost, my guess is that Delaney stays north.

 

[fcclaw613]

Fox and the Big 10 have to do the math to see if adding BC and UCONN will move the meter enough forward to increase cable carriage and advertising revenue enough to at least pay for two more conference members. If they currently pay out $25 million to each school the revenue directly related to the addition of those two schools need to at least total $50 million annually if not more. As you may know, NESN has a rather close relationship with Fox Sports now. Having said that, you have to think that the Big 10 is going to take a breather and digest what it just completed with Maryland and Rutgers and see what the other players do in response. In my opinion, the ball is now in the ACC's court as who they might invite. Swofford has to have a "come to Jesus" with the current members and get the honest reading as to what their alligence is to the conference. He then can prepare proposals for the membership to consider. I do not know Swofford but I had a business associate that played football with him at Carolina back in the late 60's and knows him well. He is no idiot and will certainly think things through. I do though believe he was completely caught off guard by the Big 10. Although the conference office does not move without serious deliberation, I do think he is under pressure, both internal and external, to get something done sooner or later. A bit of interesting information you may know about John Swofford............his brother was "Oliver" who had a hit with the song "Good Morning Star Shine" back in the 60's. He, Johnny and Zach Galifinakis all were graduates of Wilkes Central High School in North Wilkesboro, a small town in the foothills.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

If it indeed is a turf battle, wouldn't it makee more sense for the B1G to grab Syracuse and NY states cable market and then UConn and CT and New England's cable as well?

Between UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State and Michigan the B1G could firmlyplant its flag in NYC and work on upping subscriber fees for the B1G and YES in all of the NYC DMA.

EDIT: I want to add that while currently RUtgers, Cuse and UConn are not perceived as big time and are an afterthought in the city for football - fi you pit these schools up against ranked Ohio States, Michigans, Nebraskas of the world, I think college football in NYC gets revitalized. The idea in NYC is that the BE wasn't big time and didn't deserve the time of day. If the 'locals' are all in the premiere league I honestly think the potential is huge.

 

[tzznandrew]

If it indeed is a turf battle, wouldn't it makee more sense for the B1G to grab Syracuse and NY states cable market and then UConn and CT and New England's cable as well?

Between UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State and Michigan the B1G could firmlyplant its flag in NYC and work on upping subscriber fees for the B1G and YES in all of the NYC DMA.

Agreed.

This won't happen but (which is how I start so many of my expansion posts) this makes more sense, only taking BC to pair if ND comes calling.

 

[fcclaw613]

Delaney will go where the money is and I think that is New England....and yes Syracuse would become the odd man out in the "cold". Again, he has to do the math and prove to the membership, which owns 51% of the network, that it makes business sense and that he is not damaging the brand by expanding the footprint further. I have to think he has in place any number of contingencies.......a bit like a chess game where you guess beforehand what you will do based upon any number of moves your opponent might make. I have read on blogs and message boards that all of this has come about because he was pissed that the ACC did the deal with Notre Dame. I do not agree with that as this is very big business and he did not get where he is by making irrational decisions based on emotion. It just pains me that all of this is destroying long standing rivalries and relationships that institutions and their fans have often made a part of their lives. As I noted, I am a big UCONN fan and would very much want to see them a member of the ACC. I am becoming confident in saying that the college sports we have enjoyed all our lives will be nonexistent in the next five years.

Coachcap......here are the Fox Sports Regionals off their website.

http://msn.foxsports.com/home/page/fsn

Although they do not own NESN, based upon their acquisition of 49% percent of the YES network one would have to think they could do the same with NESN if they thought that would be needed.

 

[Dann]

remember how bc fell off after going to the acc? among several reasons for the bad years one of the factors was that they were hung out on a island away from all other acc schools. that doesn't look as bad now with cuse and pitt but think about this. syracuse is about the only private school that would still fit the b10 profile or come close. uconn we all know what we bring to the table. if the b10 went for the kill in the northeast and grabbed cuse and uconn. nyc is on 99% lockdown and u add a ton of tvs between the 2 states and other new england markets. what u also do is put very north east school in the b10 accept for wvu who is in the b12 and pitt who will at some point go to the b12. this leaves only bc. what u have done is downgrade bc to a exteme position vs the rest of the region and hung them out to dry. so now you dont have to worry competition wise for several of those factors. thats like doing the damage u want to do for your conf and then damaging the acc/espn even more. what could the acc/espn possibly do at that point? bball only schools? lol. there is not a fball team for hundreds of miles. thats how u scheme and plot harder...

then u go to uva and get them on board and go talk to unc. that will force nd and u take uva and nd or all 3 plus 1 more etc...the big will run the northeast in a huge split east and west division master piece. its just a matter of how they do it and who they with.

 

[UConnDan97]

Not that I have any say in it, and not that I believe that ND would "jump" to get into a conference, but at this point if the B1G were to offer UConn and BC, I believe that would be the absolute best conditions for ND to join one in football. They would have the entire Northeast (minus Syracuse and Pitt, both of whom could be scheduled in the OOC). They would have territory that included the majority of Catholics (outside of the Southwest) as well as a large portion of the population centers in the country. The ND target audience would be for the most part aligned with the conference that they have always been most likely to join from a football standpoint, IMO.

The question is; does Delany see that, and is he willing to make that bet in order to take home the coveted prize? There is no doubt in my mind that the new B1G, with the additions of UConn, BC, and ND, would be the highest earning athletic conference by far...

 

[uconnfan68]

Delaney will go where the money is and I think that is New England....and yes Syracuse would become the odd man out in the "cold". Again, he has to do the math and prove to the membership, which owns 51% of the network, that it makes business sense and that he is not damaging the brand by expanding the footprint further. I have to think he has in place any number of contingencies.......a bit like a chess game where you guess beforehand what you will do based upon any number of moves your opponent might make. I have read on blogs and message boards that all of this has come about because he was pissed that the ACC did the deal with Notre Dame. I do not agree with that as this is very big business and he did not get where he is by making irrational decisions based on emotion. It just pains me that all of this is destroying long standing rivalries and relationships that institutions and their fans have often made a part of their lives. As I noted, I am a big UCONN fan and would very much want to see them a member of the ACC. I am becoming confident in saying that the college sports we have enjoyed all our lives will be nonexistent in the next five years.

Coachcap......here are the Fox Sports Regionals off their website.

http://msn.foxsports.com/home/page/fsn

Although they do not own NESN, based upon their acquisition of 49% percent of the YES network one would have to think they could do the same with NESN if they thought that would be needed.

If this is really about football (and money), then they WON'T go to the northeast. They will go to growth states, like Virginia and North Carolina. No way at this time does BC/UConn/SU equal UVA/UNC. The SEC and B1G will have a war over UVA and UNC. They are the jewels of the ACC, state flagship schools.

 

[businesslawyer]

Delaney will go where the money is and I think that is New England....and yes Syracuse would become the odd man out in the "cold". Again, he has to do the math and prove to the membership, which owns 51% of the network, that it makes business sense and that he is not damaging the brand by expanding the footprint further. I have to think he has in place any number of contingencies.......a bit like a chess game where you guess beforehand what you will do based upon any number of moves your opponent might make. I have read on blogs and message boards that all of this has come about because he was pissed that the ACC did the deal with Notre Dame. I do not agree with that as this is very big business and he did not get where he is by making irrational decisions based on emotion. It just pains me that all of this is destroying long standing rivalries and relationships that institutions and their fans have often made a part of their lives. As I noted, I am a big UCONN fan and would very much want to see them a member of the ACC. I am becoming confident in saying that the college sports we have enjoyed all our lives will be nonexistent in the next five years.

Coachcap......here are the Fox Sports Regionals off their website.

http://msn.foxsports.com/home/page/fsn

Although they do not own NESN, based upon their acquisition of 49% percent of the YES network one would have to think they could do the same with NESN if they thought that would be needed.

Those are some great posts. Thank you.

 

[fcclaw613]

I am not the first person to say this but I agree with the thought that Big Ten football would not be as big a deal as many think in New England. I say that because regardless of how many more schools the Big Ten may add they will have to operate within divisions......and it will be and east and a west. It will be not unlike what we see with the SEC and the Big Ten now. You play the teams in your division annually as well as one school from the other division each year as well. Your schedule would also include a rotation of two other schools from the opposite division over a two year period, one year at home.....next year on the road. Afterward you move on to two other schools for the next two years. How often would Ohio State, Nebraska and Michigan come to New England to play football? Not very often. How much excitement would a UCONN vs. Minnesota or BC vs. Indiana football game create? Probably the same as BC and Clemson when played at BC. I am a firm believer that UCONN and Syracuse could play with any of the big basketball programs currently in the Big Ten and probabaly embarrass a number of the rest. BC would be.........well BC, regardless regardless of the conference they played in. I think that UCONN, Syracuse and Pitt fit right in with UNC, State and Duke. Clearly it would be the best basketball league in the nation. But does basketball pay the bills? No. Which brings us to another matter.......at some point the four or five big conferences are going to break away and pay their players. As an attorney, I see a number of issues associated with that and none of them are good. I can name you four or five lawsuits that would be filed almost immediately upon an attempt being made to break from the NCAA. But that is for another discussion or thread.

 

[HuskyFan16]

If this is really about football (and money), then they WON'T go to the northeast. They will go to growth states, like Virginia and North Carolina. No way at this time does BC/UConn/SU equal UVA/UNC. The SEC and B1G will have a war over UVA and UNC. They are the jewels of the ACC, state flagship schools.

Agree about UNC, but I would imagine the SEC would be more than ok going after Va Tech than UVA. In fact Va Tech probably fits the SEC profile much better than Virginia

 

[fcclaw613]

Businesslawyer? Another member of the bar I presume. Nice to meet you.

You may want to go back and look at a rather long post I wrote this morning (Don't Bet on UNC) about the problems that UNC will certainly face if they even consider moving to the Big Ten. I have a couple of links to stories from the Raleigh News and Observer that you will want to read. There are many more of them too.....the N&O has done a terrific job. As an attorney you will see that the issues are serious and involve possible criminal charges. They are associated with UNC and the ever widening scandal that is being uncovered bit by bit as the onion is being peeled back. I cut my teeth as a litagator before I moved to communications and media law before the FCC. This is juicy stuff that sounds like it comes out of a cheap novel. I would love to hear what you think!

 

[fcclaw613]

You know........I do not know what it is but there is something going on between Notre Dame and the Big 10 conference office. I want to think that the Notre Dame administration and athletic department just do not like the pushing that the Big 10 has done to force them in their conference. When their contract with NBC expires I think it will all be revealed one way or the other. If they get in the title game this year then it will only make them feel that much more confident they can stick it to the Big 10 even more.

 

[fcclaw613]

CYLB........you are right. VPI fits the SEC profile rather well. Odd thing......they begged and pleaded with the ACC for admission from its inception back in 1954 until they finally got in. They were located only 100 miles from the conference office in Greensboro but were always blackballed because they had no television market and that they were located in the middle of "nowhere". Now they could conceivably end up in the SEC because they bring in the Washington and Hampton Roads television markets. But again, the legislature might well have a problem with that ocurring if the gem of their university system, UVA, is not able to better their situation. Just like North Carolina, the legislature will call the shots on who does what and when......if anything at all.

 

[businesslawyer]

Businesslawyer? Another member of the bar I presume. Nice to meet you.

You may want to go back and look at a rather long post I wrote this morning (Don't Bet on UNC) about the problems that UNC will certainly face if they even consider moving to the Big Ten. I have a couple of links to stories from the Raleigh News and Observer that you will want to read. There are many more of them too.....the N&O has done a terrific job. As an attorney you will see that the issues are serious and involve possible criminal charges. They are associated with UNC and the ever widening scandal that is being uncovered bit by bit as the onion is being peeled back. I cut my teeth as a litagator before I moved to communications and media law before the FCC. This is juicy stuff that sounds like it comes out of a cheap novel. I would love to hear what you think!

I've said much over the years, and don't find that crisis is the time to repeat myself. I will say this -- I unrderstand what the Big Ten is doing (making short term economic decisions based on how much a consultant tells them a new school will add to the BTN's revenue base) but I think they are making a huge mistake ignoring the quality of their product (which they seem oblivious to) in order to drive short term revenue. How many businesses does that work for? Certainly not for mine.

As to the legality of this (and yes, I am a practicing business lawyer), I don't understand how this whole process doesn't cause the antitrust regulators to first laugh out loud and then figure out how they make a name for themselves over this. But I've been saying that for years and nothing has happened so what do I know.

 

[mavblues]

If it indeed is a turf battle, wouldn't it makee more sense for the B1G to grab Syracuse and NY states cable market and then UConn and CT and New England's cable as well?

Between UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State and Michigan the B1G could firmlyplant its flag in NYC and work on upping subscriber fees for the B1G and YES in all of the NYC DMA.

EDIT: I want to add that while currently RUtgers, Cuse and UConn are not perceived as big time and are an afterthought in the city for football - fi you pit these schools up against ranked Ohio States, Michigans, Nebraskas of the world, I think college football in NYC gets revitalized. The idea in NYC is that the BE wasn't big time and didn't deserve the time of day. If the 'locals' are all in the premiere league I honestly think the potential is huge.

I posted this several days ago - if you're going to add UConn, forget BC. It makes more sense to add Syracuse.

 

[mavblues]

remember how bc fell off after going to the acc? among several reasons for the bad years one of the factors was that they were hung out on a island away from all other acc schools. that doesn't look as bad now with cuse and pitt but think about this. syracuse is about the only private school that would still fit the b10 profile or come close. uconn we all know what we bring to the table. if the b10 went for the kill in the northeast and grabbed cuse and uconn. nyc is on 99% lockdown and u add a ton of tvs between the 2 states and other new england markets. what u also do is put very north east school in the b10 accept for wvu who is in the b12 and pitt who will at some point go to the b12. this leaves only bc. what u have done is downgrade bc to a exteme position vs the rest of the region and hung them out to dry. so now you dont have to worry competition wise for several of those factors. thats like doing the damage u want to do for your conf and then damaging the acc/espn even more. what could the acc/espn possibly do at that point? bball only schools? lol. there is not a fball team for hundreds of miles. thats how u scheme and plot harder...

then u go to uva and get them on board and go talk to unc. that will force nd and u take uva and nd or all 3 plus 1 more etc...the big will run the northeast in a huge split east and west division master piece. its just a matter of how they do it and who they **** with.

You were going good until the last paragraph. That part would be the B10's backup plan.

Once you add UConn and Syracuse, you have BC minimized in the NE. You then go to the Domers and tell them they can bring BC with them (saving the fellow Catholics). Last chance - in or out.

If ND says "no" or "maybe later", you then take UVA and UNC as the final two adds (assuming you can get past the local political issues).

 

[Point6]

I posted this several days ago - if you're going to add UConn, forget BC. It makes more sense to add Syracuse.

I agree - let it be known that BC is invited to be # 17 if and when ND comes on board at #18.

 

[SubbaBub]

Enjoying this thread very much as a break from the normal lunacy around here. If I am correctly following the assumed goals of the BT, them I would be looking at UConn, Cuse, and UVA in some combination. I agree that BC on an island isn't much of a threat to a Fox/BTN effort. I think UVA is gettable without the political hitching of VT. The question is whether UConn/Cuse gets enough of the NYC DMA without the other. If it does then, UVA will give the BT full coverage of the northeast quadrant of the country.

 

[fcclaw613]

Business Lawyer......agree totally with you. When they start paying players......and that is coming.......how quickly will the players unionize and enter into collective bargaining based on what they make for the schools they play for? Notice I did not say "the schools they attend". Then the players will be the employees of the state if they are at a state supported institution. Do they have to meet the same employment criteria that other state employees have to? How quickly will the schools that do not get in the "club" that breaks away file the antitrust suit? How quickly will the NCAA file its damage suit covering the $11 billion contract they signed with CBS/Turner for March Madness rights? How quickly will the federal goverment come down on schools relating to impact this will have on Title IX for those schools that relied on their cut of the March Madness money to fund women's sports? And how many of these suits have ESPN/Fox, ect named as a co-defendant? A good litigation firm could have a field day.