OT: The Probability of Playing College Sports for High School Athletes

[Charliebball]

As seasons are starting up, once again just a little reminder of how lucky you are to put on that uniform. Take nothing for granted.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Back in the one percent bracket--ok 1.1 percent to go along with the 3.8 percent of hS WBB player that play in the NCAA--what is the number for those that get to the final 4 then the NC--we know how small that number must be--11 out of the last 21 years went to Uconn WBB--

 

[Tidepool]

This indicates that in almost every sport, a higher percentage of high school females than males competes in the NCAAs in college. Whodathunkit?

 

[willtalk]

Glad you posted this. I didn't think people actually knew how difficult it was for a high school player to make it to D1. Only 1.1 %. Now think how difficult it is to make it to a Major Program. That again cuts down the odds considerably. The competition is getting harder every year. Players need to commit themselves early on. You can no longer just make it being a good athlete. It takes a year round commitment.

 

[JordyG]

And now, think how low the percentage is of those who play D1 or D2 and go pro. That number is microscopic.

 

[alexrgct]

As seasons are starting up, once again just a little reminder of how lucky you are to put on that uniform. Take nothing for granted.

 

[meyers7]

This indicates that in almost every sport, a higher percentage of high school females than males competes in the NCAAs in college. Whodathunkit?

Ummm, me? There's way more boys playing sports than girls in HS, but they have to have about the same number in College. So that pushes the percentages to the females.

 

[UcMiami]

I think this is a misleading statistical chart as is the issue of D1 to pros. The vast majority of HS kids that play sports have no ambition to be scholarship athletes - they probably daydream about being a star professional athlete, but the participation in HS sport is the same as attending dance classes, or doing HS theater, or being a member of a chess club, or ... - it is an activity that gives them enjoyment, creates friendships and social interactions, and looks good on college applications. You could put up the same kind of staggering chart about kids who play peewee athletics and go on to be on HS teams. And the same is true with the vast majority of college athletes and going pro. People aren't that deluded as to think playing for a mid-major and even starting is likely to create a path to a professional career.

At Uconn we have had two of those athletes on the WCBB team the last three years - Lawlor had no intension of playing organized college sports, and Pulido was a partial scholarship athlete in T&F. They got a chance out of the blue to join WCBB and embraced it, but they were neither under any illusions about their careers after college. Why did they join - because they love the game and the team environment and to some degree it will look good on their professional resume, and when they tell their kids about the experience it will give them pride.

 

[Checkmate]

And now, think how low the percentage is of those who play D1 or D2 and go pro. That number is microscopic.

yet most AAU basketball players think they have a good chance to get an athletic scholarship. If parents knew the odds of an academic or need based scholarship was 10 times higher than an athletic scholarship they probably would not pay for their child to go all over the country to play in tournaments.

 

[JordyG]

I think this is a misleading statistical chart as is the issue of D1 to pros. The vast majority of HS kids that play sports have no ambition to be scholarship athletes - they probably daydream about being a star professional athlete, but the participation in HS sport is the same as attending dance classes, or doing HS theater, or being a member of a chess club, or ... - it is an activity that gives them enjoyment, creates friendships and social interactions, and looks good on college applications. You could put up the same kind of staggering chart about kids who play peewee athletics and go on to be on HS teams. And the same is true with the vast majority of college athletes and going pro. People aren't that deluded as to think playing for a mid-major and even starting is likely to create a path to a professional career.

At Uconn we have had two of those athletes on the WCBB team the last three years - Lawlor had no intension of playing organized college sports, and Pulido was a partial scholarship athlete in T&F. They got a chance out of the blue to join WCBB and embraced it, but they were neither under any illusions about their careers after college. Why did they join - because they love the game and the team environment and to some degree it will look good on their professional resume, and when they tell their kids about the experience it will give them pride.

Yet your argument is about the belief or mind set inherent in the majority of D1 or D2 athlete. Although I won't assume their goals or future intent, nor have I seen any survey that investigates the number of athletes in major programs that believe they can go pro, my statement was purely numbers based. No statistic is entirely context or perspective based, nor is it intended to be so. One of the differences in playing sports in D1 or 2 and being the lead in a school theater production is that of full scholarships, and the expectations and responsibilities inherent in those offered.

yet most AAU basketball players think they have a good chance to get an athletic scholarship. If parents knew the odds of an academic or need based scholarship was 10 times higher than an athletic scholarship they probably would not pay for their child to go all over the country to play in tournaments.

As said here I would bet most of these AAU athletes believe they are also going pro.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Yet your argument is about the belief or mind set inherent in the majority of D1 or D2 athlete. Although I won't assume their goals or future intent, nor have I seen any survey that investigates the number of athletes in major programs that believe they can go pro, my statement was purely numbers based. No statistic is entirely context or perspective based, nor is it intended to be so. One of the differences in playing sports in D1 or 2 and being the lead in a school theater production is that of full scholarships, and the expectations and responsibilities inherent in those offered.

As said here I would bet most of these AAU athletes believe they are also going pro.

Actually, there was a study somewhere last year about men's BB players going pro. An astonishing percentage considered it a possibility. I don't know if the sample was limited to a certain subset of D1 schools or all of D1, and I don't remember the percentage but believe it was over 50%. In any case, it was staggeringly higher than the real possibility.

 

[Ozimoto]

Hearing the number of parents in my social sphere (I just had one graduate for high school and have another who is a junior) who talk about investing in elite club teams so their kids can get athletic scholarships as a way to pay for college I don't think they have a clue about what the odds really are (or they choose to ignore the reality). The big investments on the Mid Atlantic Region are in soccer and lacrosse (girls and boys) and softball for girls.

The reality of the situation is that of the kids we know, only one of them is a D1 softball player on a basement dwelling team in the B1G and there are a hand full who are playing D1 soccer and lacrosse at places like Maryland, Loyola Baltimore, and Johns Hopkins. It's hard to be coldly logical when it comes to your kid, though.

 

[UcMiami]

So just some rough figures on basketball: D1 WCBB programs = 349 less Ivies where there are no scholarships: 341 - average scholarships per team = 14 - 4774 scholarships for 4 classes - 1200 per year.*
D2 - teams 314, scholarship max - 10 = 3140 for four years or 785 per year
NAIA1 - teams 102, scholarships max - 11 = 1122 for four years or 280 per year
NAIA2 - teams 122, scholarship max - 6 = 732 for four years or 183 per year
JC - teams 398, scholarship max - 15 = 5970 for two years or 1985 per year

* Average scholarships per team for D1 basketball is actually calculated from 2015-16 NCAA stats, I did not find any info for the other levels so am just using the maximum permitted by governing body.

For 4 year schools the total available scholarships average per year is 2450 plus another 1985 at JC level.
Odds of a girls high school athlete playing College Basketball - not based on scholarship.
Number of US High School Basketball players 429,504
Number of US College Basketball Players 27,951
% of foreign students playing NCAA Basketball 4.4%
% of US High School Players competing at any College level 6.2%
% of US High School Players competing at NCAA I Schools 1.1%

Interestingly I am having a hard time finding any numbers for AAU participation which presumably would indicate a higher level of commitment and a lower level of participation for HS.

Other points to note:
1. HS students are more likely to participate in multiple sports than college students so the numbers of HS participants in any single sport is probably higher than those that have that sport as their primary interest at a college level.

2. HS participation probably includes as least some athletes that are in 7th and 8th grades so the numbers include at least a little more than an aggregate of 4 years, while the college numbers for four year programs include a maximum of four years, but the tot5al participation includes JC which is an aggregate of only two years

3. The attrition rate at the HS level is probably much greater from 7th - 12th grades and specifically from 9th - 12 grades than it is for players who are good enough and committed enough to make a college team of any level so the percentage of 12th grade players vs college players is probably understated since these are aggregates of participants across classes at each level.

4. Similar to #3 the attrition rate in college is not insignificant so any statistic about college players expecting to have a professional career that does not limit to seniors is going to be greatly overstated as is the statistic of college participants that do in fact go pro.

For an example -
1. Caroline Doty in HS played at least soccer and basketball so she would show up in the 'participation' number for each sport - but she never planned to play college soccer.
2. In high school, if asked, she would likely have said her ambition was to play professionally (even after her first knee injury
3. In college at the start of her first three years she probably would have stated she intended to pursue her sport professionally
4. By the time she started her 5th year of college I am pretty sure she knew she would not be pursuing a professional career.

Interesting site:
Odds of playing a college sport from high school
NB - Molly Bent and Caroline Doty and Sue Bird and others at Uconn would be showing up in the 10-1 statistic of HS to college soccer numbers as I am sure others would show up on college soccer list that also played HS basketball or on basketball/vollyball numbers that chose a single sport to pursue in college.