The Power 5

[Vowelguy]

The top 5 teams have just 5 total losses this year, 3 against each other.
The other 2 were Louisville's one-point loss vs #9 Florida St and Baylor's early season game (without Mulkey & Cox) at #10 UCLA.

By my quick count, they are 29-2 against the rest of the current AP top 25.

That's domination, Holmes.

I will be surprised if they don't take at least 3 of the Final 4 spots.

 

[Plebe]

The top 5 teams have just 5 total losses this year, 3 against each other.
The other 2 were Louisville's one-point loss vs #9 Florida St and Baylor's early season game (without Mulkey & Cox) at #10 UCLA.

By my quick count, they are 29-2 against the rest of the current AP top 25.

That's domination, Holmes.

I will be surprised if they don't take at least 3 of the Final 4 spots.

I remember a couple years ago it was a similar situation with the top 4 teams.

UConn was undefeated, Notre Dame and South Carolina had each only lost to UConn, and Baylor's only loss was to Oklahoma State in a game where Niya Johnson was missing.

People thought these four teams were virtual locks for Final Four. But only one made it.

 

[Centerstream]

I remember a couple years ago it was a similar situation with the top 4 teams.

UConn was undefeated, Notre Dame and South Carolina had each only lost to UConn, and Baylor's only loss was to Oklahoma State in a game where Niya Johnson was missing.

People thought these four teams were virtual locks for Final Four. But only one made it.

That's what is so cool about the Tournament, any of the 63 other teams can go on a 4 or 5 game run and crash the Big Dance.

 

[DefenseBB]

What's that they say-all it takes is a dollar and a dream...but not this year in my humble opinion. The top 5 are so dominant that I find it unlikely 4 of them won't make it. The gap is too great and the flaws of 6-20 are glaring.
UConn-Albany, no chance for anyone else.
Lexington-Louisville near home, as the current 3 seed, they are the second most vulnerable of the big 5 after ND.
Spokane-ND, with a depleted roster, yes, this is Muffet's finest coaching effort to date. They are the most vulnerable and is dependent where Baylor gets sent.
Kansas City-Miss State will breeze through here as even the committee won't put Baylor in this bracket.

Others under consideration but dismissed:
Texas-I think their big game at home against us was their crowning achievement this year. They couldn't muster a real effort last night against Baylor with Brown on the bench and I frankly think they do too many dumb things resulting in empty possessions.
SC-Injuries have taken their toll on the guard play putting too much pressure on Harris and Wilson. They won their NC last year, thanks for coming, please single file out of the arena for you flight from Albany back to Columbia...
Oregon-Even their home cooking in Eugene is suspect as against Stanford and UCLA proved. Sabrina came up big in OT last night but she disappeared for most of the second half when Oregon blew a 19 point lead. Same thing happened against Stanford. This is a young squad that still needs seasoning.
FSU-Sorry Sue, nice effort but not enough real offense if Thomas struggles.
UCLA-again, sorry Cory, your seniors are nice but not enough to really contend as your offense relies too much on Jordin to create.
Mizzou-You need more than Sophie to play with the top 5 and must win on the road. Get some more top 25 talent to help and maybe next year...
Oregon St-For a rebuilding year, Scott-awesome job, with Slocum next year go for it!!! This year, not so much.

Only sleeper I can see is Stanford who finally has their act together. McPhee is healthy and the rest of her AA's are finally playing like it. Who wants to go against Tara when she has time to scheme???

So, for me, it's UConn, MSU, Baylor (even Kim can't melt down enough to screw this FF run up) and who ever doesn't get stuck with Baylor in their region-Louisville or ND.

 

[nwhoopfan]

The top 5 teams have just 5 total losses this year, 3 against each other.
The other 2 were Louisville's one-point loss vs #9 Florida St and Baylor's early season game (without Mulkey & Cox) at #10 UCLA.

By my quick count, they are 29-2 against the rest of the current AP top 25.

That's domination, Holmes.

I will be surprised if they don't take at least 3 of the Final 4 spots.

Weren't the previous 2 years a similar situation, yet Baylor and Notre Dame both missed the Final 4 both years and you had Syracuse, Oregon St., Washington, Mississippi St. and Stanford surprisingly crashing the party. I believe the days of easily being able to predict which 4 teams will advance to the last weekend of the season is over.

 

[DefenseBB]

Weren't the previous 2 years a similar situation, yet Baylor and Notre Dame both missed the Final 4 both years and you had Syracuse, Oregon St., Washington, Mississippi St. and Stanford surprisingly crashing the party. I believe the days of easily being able to predict which 4 teams will advance to the last weekend of the season is over.

ND was without Turner who got injured so that opened the door for Tara. Mulkey had a typical meltdown that cost her but then again, they weren't playing great going into the Tourney when they lost to WV in the Big12 Tourney. Plus they hadn't figured out the post situation-Nina Davis, Cox, Brown, Mompremier, Cohen were all fighting for minutes and how to pass to each other. This year, they have a better understanding of roles and effort.

 

[LoTrader]

What's that they say-all it takes is a dollar and a dream...but not this year in my humble opinion. The top 5 are so dominant that I find it unlikely 4 of them won't make it. The gap is too great and the flaws of 6-20 are glaring.
UConn-Albany, no chance for anyone else.
Lexington-Louisville near home, as the current 3 seed, they are the second most vulnerable of the big 5 after ND.
Spokane-ND, with a depleted roster, yes, this is Muffet's finest coaching effort to date. They are the most vulnerable and is dependent where Baylor gets sent.
Kansas City-Miss State will breeze through here as even the committee won't put Baylor in this bracket.

Others under consideration but dismissed:
Texas-I think their big game at home against us was their crowning achievement this year. They couldn't muster a real effort last night against Baylor with Brown on the bench and I frankly think they do too many dumb things resulting in empty possessions.
SC-Injuries have taken their toll on the guard play putting too much pressure on Harris and Wilson. They won their NC last year, thanks for coming, please single file out of the arena for you flight from Albany back to Columbia...
Oregon-Even their home cooking in Eugene is suspect as against Stanford and UCLA proved. Sabrina came up big in OT last night but she disappeared for most of the second half when Oregon blew a 19 point lead. Same thing happened against Stanford. This is a young squad that still needs seasoning.
FSU-Sorry Sue, nice effort but not enough real offense if Thomas struggles.
UCLA-again, sorry Cory, your seniors are nice but not enough to really contend as your offense relies too much on Jordin to create.
Mizzou-You need more than Sophie to play with the top 5 and must win on the road. Get some more top 25 talent to help and maybe next year...
Oregon St-For a rebuilding year, Scott-awesome job, with Slocum next year go for it!!! This year, not so much.

Only sleeper I can see is Stanford who finally has their act together. McPhee is healthy and the rest of her AA's are finally playing like it. Who wants to go against Tara when she has time to scheme???

So, for me, it's UConn, MSU, Baylor (even Kim can't melt down enough to screw this FF run up) and who ever doesn't get stuck with Baylor in their region-Louisville or ND.

DefenseBB, I really like your's and Plebe's commentary (as well as my home boy "nwhoopfan"). I happen to think, other than UCONN, this tournament is "WIDE OPEN". Mississippi State has proven to me they are formidable, but I don't see that in any other team in the #1 or #2 seeds. I really believe we will see many upsets this year with #1, #2, #3 seeds.

 

[nwhoopfan]

ND was without Turner who got injured so that opened the door for Tara. Mulkey had a typical meltdown that cost her but then again, they weren't playing great going into the Tourney when they lost to WV in the Big12 Tourney. Plus they hadn't figured out the post situation-Nina Davis, Cox, Brown, Mompremier, Cohen were all fighting for minutes and how to pass to each other. This year, they have a better understanding of roles and effort.

What about Baylor and Notre Dame two years ago? Tara and company took out the Irish two years in a row as big underdogs. Oregon St. eliminated Baylor in a regional final in Dallas. Baylor was 33-1 entering the Tourney and Notre Dame was 31-1. Both were viewed as pretty much locks to get to the Final 4. As we know neither did.

 

[Orangutan]

What about Baylor and Notre Dame two years ago? Tara and company took out the Irish two years in a row as big underdogs. Oregon St. eliminated Baylor in a regional final in Dallas. Baylor was 33-1 entering the Tourney and Notre Dame was 31-1. Both were viewed as pretty much locks to get to the Final 4. As we know neither did.

I will always be annoyed that ND never got a proper shot at revenge last year.

Their 2016 win was one of those "they usually wouldn't make this many shots in an empty gym" games like the Louisville-ND game this year. You play that game 10 times and ND probably wins 8. But such is the nature of single-elim tournament (especially when Tara is on the sideline).

 

[DefenseBB]

What about Baylor and Notre Dame two years ago? Tara and company took out the Irish two years in a row as big underdogs. Oregon St. eliminated Baylor in a regional final in Dallas. Baylor was 33-1 entering the Tourney and Notre Dame was 31-1. Both were viewed as pretty much locks to get to the Final 4. As we know neither did.

I hear ya, and that squad from '15-16 was also with only 1 loss to an unranked Ok St team going into the Tourney. That year was her infamous Jacket tossing in the NCAA's and is eerily similar schedule wise to this year with a plethora of Cupcakes (Kim is so freakin stubborn on the lame scheduling!) but this year feels different for me with how much more dominating they are and more consistent than the past two years. Plus, it's been 6 years so maybe a little better than locusts, its her year to make the Final Four!!!

Personally, I want the committee to stick to their guns on the OOC schedule demands and give both Lou and ND #1 seeds and make Baylor travel so Kim completely gets the point on her lame-ass scheduling.

To all the BU fans (sorry ETT), your 9 "ranked opponents in the top 25" is lame as Kentucky at #20 when you played is a bust, TCU at #24 when you played is a bust and so is WVa at #20 when you played. Ok State is hanging on at 25 so only Texas, Stanford and UCLA have any grit. Do not bemoan your situation and tell Kimbo to go on a diet and avoid the patsy's. You're supposed to be a blue-blood, act like it!!!