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The next dominoes

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Here's what I've got:

SEC, B1G, Pac-12, ACC all stand pat.

Big 12 (no longer power conference-therefore no BYU) adds:

Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, and UCF

American adds 7 schools from Mountain West:

East: ECU, Navy, SMU, USF, Temple, Tulsa, Tulane
West: Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, SDSU

Mountain West adds 5 schools from C-USA and 1 from Sun Belt and 1 independent:

West: Utah State, Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, Hawaii, NMSU
East: Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, LaTech, Texas State

MAC adds 2 schools from C-USA:

West: CMU, WMU, EMU, NIU, Toledo, Ball State, WKU
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami, Ohio, Marshall

C-USA adds 7 schools from Sun Belt:

West: UAB, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana, MTSU, Troy, Charlotte
East: FAU, FIU, ODU, CCU, App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Independents include:

Notre Dame, BYU, UConn, Army, UMass, Liberty, South Alabama, UL Monroe

The Sun Belt dissolves as it is down to 4 Olympic members and 2 football members.
 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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I don’t see why the MAC would want to expand.
A) Marshall and WKU are local and solid brands.

B) It would help reduce FBS from 10 to 9 conferences which is good for the MAC (less competition for television).
 

VCE

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Here's what I've got:

SEC, B1G, Pac-12, ACC all stand pat.

Big 12 (no longer power conference-therefore no BYU) adds:

Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, and UCF

American adds 7 schools from Mountain West:

East: ECU, Navy, SMU, USF, Temple, Tulsa, Tulane
West: Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, SDSU

Mountain West adds 5 schools from C-USA and 1 from Sun Belt and 1 independent:

West: Utah State, Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, Hawaii, NMSU
East: Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, LaTech, Texas State

MAC adds 2 schools from C-USA:

West: CMU, WMU, EMU, NIU, Toledo, Ball State, WKU
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami, Ohio, Marshall

C-USA adds 7 schools from Sun Belt:

West: UAB, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana, MTSU, Troy, Charlotte
East: FAU, FIU, ODU, CCU, App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Independents include:

Notre Dame, BYU, UConn, Army, UMass, Liberty, South Alabama, UL Monroe

The Sun Belt dissolves as it is down to 4 Olympic members and 2 football members.

the American in this scenario is in no place to poach the MWC. SMU, Tulsa and likely Wichita St would be begging to get into the MWC at that point.
 

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I give your scenario 96.67% odds. ;) The only questionable idea is UMass remaining independent. I think you are overlooking the strong likelihood that they would form a two team conf with Louisiana Monroe.
 

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I think we just have to wait to see what fox wants to do- they can save the b12 remnants or else the b12 in 2026 will be eating from the ESPN dog bowl with the AAC and others. Otherwise, I think if the B12 is fueled under a new media deal to add schools from the AAC, then I think the AAC ends up in some sort of scheduling alliance with the MW or something weird like that.
 
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Why would MW schools leave for a depleted AAC?

mistake for B12 to not take Boise
 
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shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Why would MW schools leave for a depleted AAC?

mistake for B12 to not take Boise
For East Coast exposure and game times. I believe the bottom 2/3rds of the AAC is more valuable than the bottom half of the MW. Therefore, I think the top half of the MW would chose the former.
 
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These only work for football. Your conferences will go belly up shuttling softball, track and volleyball teams across the country every week.

More likely, the non-P4 schools start to think about football only conferences and regional Olympic conferences.
 
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I think you're more likely to see the Big XII figure out how to add BYU and leave Memphis (with a slim chance of it being Houston instead of Memphis, depending on how the schools feel about adding another Texas team) off the list. Big XII contract is cut to about the $10M/year range.

At that point the money for the AAC is likely in the MWC range (about $4M/year) at best. SMU (and Houston if they were left out of the Big XII) would be likely to beg to join the MWC at that point and probably be added. From there the AAC is largely the same as Sun Belt and C-USA. Those conferences would do well to figure out how to regionalize because each of them are looking at ~2M/year TV rights deals. Temple probably looks to see if they can be independent and rejoin the A-10 for basketball/Olympics. Navy goes back to independence for football. Memphis cries.

Temple's independence guarantees another semi-local annual game for November, so that's marginally good for UConn.
 

Fishy

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The most likely scenario - overwhelmingly - is that the remaining eight Big 12 teams milk the remaining contract and exit fees and then add in two to four schools from the AAC/BYU.

Only questions I have are….

1) Do they invite BYU?
2) Do they take one or two Florida schools?
3) Do they invite Houston? They don’t want to.
 
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I think you're more likely to see the Big XII figure out how to add BYU and leave Memphis (with a slim chance of it being Houston instead of Memphis, depending on how the schools feel about adding another Texas team) off the list. Big XII contract is cut to about the $10M/year range.

At that point the money for the AAC is likely in the MWC range (about $4M/year) at best. SMU (and Houston if they were left out of the Big XII) would be likely to beg to join the MWC at that point and probably be added. From there the AAC is largely the same as Sun Belt and C-USA. Those conferences would do well to figure out how to regionalize because each of them are looking at ~2M/year TV rights deals. Temple probably looks to see if they can be independent and rejoin the A-10 for basketball/Olympics. Navy goes back to independence for football. Memphis cries.

Temple's independence guarantees another semi-local annual game for November, so that's marginally good for UConn.
I don't see BYU joining the B12 leftovers. There is no advantage to them joining either financially or competitively with the B12 no longer being a power conference
 
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The most likely scenario - overwhelmingly - is that the remaining eight Big 12 teams milk the remaining contract and exit fees and then add in two to four schools from the AAC/BYU.

Only questions I have are….

1) Do they invite BYU?
2) Do they take one or two Florida schools?
3) Do they invite Houston? They don’t want to.
You posted as I was typing my response.

I get them inviting BYU but, what is the value for BYU in joining?
 
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Kansas, ISO, and West Virginia have obvious options.

Or, the XII remaining 8 could double its size by adding Cinci, Memphis, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Temple, and of course, UCONN.
What options do they have?
 
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Kansas, ISO, and West Virginia have obvious options.

Or, the XII remaining 8 could double its size by adding Cinci, Memphis, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Temple, and of course, UCONN.
 
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I like the ACC-B1G-Pac 12 Alliance...

When a team from the Alliance wins an OOC game...we can all yell..."Alliance, Alliance, Alliance".
 
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Kansas, ISO, and West Virginia have obvious options.

Or, the XII remaining 8 could double its size by adding Cinci, Memphis, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Temple, and of course, UCONN.
1G and ACC would make sense (Kansas and ISU, WVU).
A 16 team XII/AAC merger would be very competitive and really would be a P5 conference.
 

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The most likely scenario - overwhelmingly - is that the remaining eight Big 12 teams milk the remaining contract and exit fees and then add in two to four schools from the AAC/BYU.

Only questions I have are….

1) Do they invite BYU?
2) Do they take one or two Florida schools?
3) Do they invite Houston? They don’t want to.
This only works if someone not named ESPN steps up for a new media deal. Whose going to do that? FOX?
 
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ESPN isn't going to want to foot the bill for a fully merged Big XII/AAC. You can pay a 10 or 12 team Big XII ~$10M a school, rather than paying a 20 team AAC (which in the theory of the poaching AAC was going to receive an increased payment per school). It's much more efficient to actually pay for the schools with worthwhile content and leave out the ECUs of the world who aren't worth the $7M per they are already getting.

Paying the 10 team BigXII $100M and the 10 team leftover AAC $40M (or less if a Houston and SMU peel off for the MWC) is better than paying a BigXII/AAC merger $160-$200M.


A 16-team Big XII is simply a slightly-upgraded AAC with a new name, it might hang onto P5 status in name only, but the payouts for that league would be so far behind the other P5, that it would be more of a weak sibling to the power conferences than the Big East was perceived to be in the late 2000s.
 
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ESPN isn't going to want to foot the bill for a fully merged Big XII/AAC. You can pay a 10 or 12 team Big XII ~$10M a school, rather than paying a 20 team AAC (which in the theory of the poaching AAC was going to receive an increased payment per school). It's much more efficient to actually pay for the schools with worthwhile content and leave out the ECUs of the world who aren't worth the $7M per they are already getting.

Paying the 10 team BigXII $100M and the 10 team leftover AAC $40M (or less if a Houston and SMU peel off for the MWC) is better than paying a BigXII/AAC merger $160-$200M.


A 16-team Big XII is simply a slightly-upgraded AAC with a new name, it might hang onto P5 status in name only, but the payouts for that league would be so far behind the other P5, that it would be more of a weak sibling to the power conferences than the Big East was perceived to be in the late 2000s.


It all depends on who is bidding for the content. A 14 or 16 team reconstituted B12 with the group mentioned included has quite a few very good football and bball programs, and a very large geographic/demographic footprint. With the exception of Clemson and Osu football, they're on par with the P12, ACC and maybe even B10 football competition, There's potentially a very, very good league there football wise, and the same for basketball.
 
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You posted as I was typing my response.

I get them inviting BYU but, what is the value for BYU in joining?
If the playoff expands to 12 and one spot is reserved for a non power conference champ, then being in the b12 suddenly becomes more attractive to BYU.
 
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For East Coast exposure and game times. I believe the bottom 2/3rds of the AAC is more valuable than the bottom half of the MW. Therefore, I think the top half of the MW would chose the former.

Yeah there's a heck of a lot more people who want to see Colorado St vs East Carolina to make up for the enormous increase in travel costs for all sports.
 
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