The next dominoes (September 9 edition)

[shizzle787]

I last did one of these 8 days ago and A LOT has changed.

1) We know that BYU, UCF, Cincy, and Houston will be invited by the Big 12 tomorrow and be all sports members.

2) Wichita State's AD has said that they are happy in the American.

3) There are talks of the Big 12 maybe going to 14- but I don't think it will make sense financially.

The next conference up is the American. The initial assessment is that they are in a tough spot, but the initial assessment was that BYU wouldn't be interested in the Big 12 without TX and OU. Keep in mind, Aresco and the AAC have ESPN backing them. That is huge. I now think they make a play for the MW.

West: San Diego State, Boise State, Air Force, Colorado State, SMU, Navy
East: Memphis, Temple, ECU, USF, Tulane, Tulsa

The Mountain West is up next. Their next play is to get into the Texas market: they add Rice and UTEP. Also, by only adding two, it leaves them with 9 basketball schools. They reach out to Gonzaga and St. Mary's to join to form an 11-team conference and they accept.

West: UNLV, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada
East: Utah State, New Mexico, Wyoming, UTEP, Rice

The WCC responds by adding Seattle, Denver, and Cal Baptist to get back to 10.

At this point, C-USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt are at 12, 12, and 10 teams respectively. I think all three stay put.

 

[ScottVib]

The Sun Belt has already stated they intend to be aggressive and want to be football first. Reportedly their two non-football members are going to be set adrift to open spots.

The MWC has already said they are considering their next move. I think the MWC will be the aggressor, with SMU & Rice as the targets. (Especially as SMU hears rumors of Memphis being on deck for a future move to the Big XII they'll want out of the AAC).

ESPN only backs the AAC as far as it's getting content at the right price point. The AAC just lost their three most valuable properties (and if you count UConn, their top four); that contract will change and no amount of MWC teams (currently valued at $4M(or less each)) is going to keep the dollars the same. Furthermore neither Boise nor Memphis (the two most valuable remaining properties) are going to sign a GOR, with them both rumored to be getting the next life raft out (and I can't see Boise paying exit fees to then exit another conference a few years later and pay MORE fees). For this reason I don't think the MWC poaching scenario has legs, as without Boise, there just isn't a lot of value left, certainly not enough to justify an all sports league running from San Diego to Philadelphia.

I do think there is going to be a lot of shuffling among the G5 (and if SMU and Memphis are headed out, I can't see Temple wanting to keep basketball in the AAC; particularly if the money gets slashed the way it will likely get cut; similarly Navy probably returns to independence as the AAC starts to look like the old rump-CUSA).

 

[Kolumbo]

It's gotten to the point where it is absolute shameless greed. Wait for an invite, grab the invite, go poaching, it's pathetic. From Provo to Cincy to Orlando. What a cluster F. What is the point of conference membership when all they do is worry about who is going where no matter the distance. I'd be much happier in a competitive Northeast conference with local rivals than a conference spread cross country.

 

[huskymedic]

The Sun Belt has already stated they intend to be aggressive and want to be football first. Reportedly their two non-football members are going to be set adrift to open spots.

The MWC has already said they are considering their next move. I think the MWC will be the aggressor, with SMU & Rice as the targets. (Especially as SMU hears rumors of Memphis being on deck for a future move to the Big XII they'll want out of the AAC).

ESPN only backs the AAC as far as it's getting content at the right price point. The AAC just lost their three most valuable properties (and if you count UConn, their top four); that contract will change and no amount of MWC teams (currently valued at $4M(or less each)) is going to keep the dollars the same. Furthermore neither Boise nor Memphis (the two most valuable remaining properties) are going to sign a GOR, with them both rumored to be getting the next life raft out (and I can't see Boise paying exit fees to then exit another conference a few years later and pay MORE fees). For this reason I don't think the MWC poaching scenario has legs, as without Boise, there just isn't a lot of value left, certainly not enough to justify an all sports league running from San Diego to Philadelphia.

I do think there is going to be a lot of shuffling among the G5 (and if SMU and Memphis are headed out, I can't see Temple wanting to keep basketball in the AAC; particularly if the money gets slashed the way it will likely get cut; similarly Navy probably returns to independence as the AAC starts to look like the old rump-CUSA).

 

[ClifSpliffy]

It's gotten to the point where it is absolute shameless greed. Wait for an invite, grab the invite, go poaching, it's pathetic. From Provo to Cincy to Orlando. What a cluster F. What is the point of conference membership when all they do is worry about who is going where no matter the distance. I'd be much happier in a competitive Northeast conference with local rivals than a conference spread cross country.

absolutely. until then, i am quite content to stay independent.
what could it be called? since sun belt, and borscht belt, are already taken, how aboot the 'Maple Syrup Belt?' the 'Clam Belt?' or mebbe the 'Traffic Belt?' just not the "pumpkin belt.' try as they might, all that pumpkin flavored mania that descends upon us every fall is still just plain gross. i even heard recently that some burger place is rolling out pumpkin flavored french fries. turrible. iffn i see our a.d. person at a picnic puttin sliced pumpkin on a grill, with olive oil and garlic, im just gonna walk right up and clock him. or her. i believe in equality.

 

[Dooooooomed]

ESPN radio said today that Aresco has been in talks with UAB, Rice, and Charlotte...

 

[Kolumbo]

absolutely. until then, i am quite content to stay independent.
what could it be called? since sun belt, and borscht belt, are already taken, how aboot the 'Maple Syrup Belt?' the 'Clam Belt?' or mebbe the 'Traffic Belt?' just not the "pumpkin belt.' try as they might, all that pumpkin flavored mania that descends upon us every fall is still just plain gross. i even heard recently that some burger place is rolling out pumpkin flavored french fries. turrible. iffn i see our a.d. person at a picnic puttin sliced pumpkin on a grill, with olive oil and garlic, im just gonna walk right up and clock him. or her. i believe in equality.

We'll call it the Titan Belt. While conferences are designing 64" belts we're tightening ours to around 32" and keeping it close and local. Until if and when they separate football from the other sports, I'd rather be independent in football too. Hoops in the Big East is far better than being in any of those other conferences chasing football dollars. We can wait until either the ACC calls or an eastern football only conference rises up.

 

[Kolumbo]

08 - AAC
14 - C-USA
12 - MAC
12 - MW
10 - Sun Belt
05 - Indie

61 programs outside the P4.5. Bigger has to be better. Indie is fine but some conferences may start looking for takers even if it means football only.

 

[uconntailgater]

I believe the AAC will implode. Navy can easily return to independence. I know they value the Texas teams on the schedule. They can easily schedule several Texas teams a year as an independent. No way temple wants to remain part of this conference as they now become the outlier in the Northeast and can move their basketball and Olympic sports back to the Atlantic 10, and likely get a decent television contract if they go independent for football.

 

[Slasher]

I think C-USA is the real loser in the end. I do think the sun belt can steal some non-aac teams. MAC is pretty much not going to change (with the exception of possibly Buffalo.) C-USA may be the conference that ends up dying.