The next dominoes (September 22 edition)

[shizzle787]

With some nuggets from Matt Brown and his podcast (if you don't know who he is, look him up-very reliable), here is my latest prediction for the conference realignment dominoes.

Air Force, Colorado State, and UAB are rumored to be close to finalizing the deal to join the AAC. I don't think Army will leave independence. Therefore, I think the 4th school will be Rice.

West: Air Force, Colorado State, Rice, SMU, Navy, Tulsa
East: UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, USF, Temple

At this point, the Mountain West is up. They are down to 9 Olympic members and 10 football members. Their options include trying to add Gonzaga, add some combination of NMSU and Texas schools or add FCS powers NDSU or Montana. I originally thought Gonzaga would go to the MW, but seeing as it is not a major league in basketball, Gonzaga continues to be the big fish in the small WCC pond. Adding FCS schools would definitely hurt the brand even if they could compete. New Mexico will not allow New Mexico State to join the league. None of the remaining teams in TX really move the need brand-wise so the MW decides to offer Hawaii full membership to get to 10 in both sports.

West: San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State
East: Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada

The MAC looks around and decides to stay put at 12.

This leaves a duel between C-USA and the Sun Belt.

A small reorganization ensues. The Sun Belt picks off Southern Miss and FAU, and C-USA counters by grabbing Texas State and NMSU (to give UTEP a travel partner). This leaves the Sun Belt with 11 schools (13 in Olympics) and C-USA with 12 schools. The two basketball schools in the Sun Belt leave for basketball conferences (UT-Arlington to the MVC with Belmont; Little Rock heads off to the SoCon). The Sun Belt then decides to get back to 12 by adding Liberty.

Sun Belt:
West: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Troy
East: Liberty, FAU, App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

C-USA:
West: NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, LaTech
East: Marshall, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, WKU, MTSU

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass

 

[uconntailgater]

It will be interesting to see if Navy decides it's in their best interest to return to independence and if Temple decides it doesn't want to be part of a Southern conference anymore. If those two teams leave prior to the AAC expanding I believe the other conferences will pick off the remaining AAC teams?

 

[Storrs South]

It will be interesting to see if Navy decides it's in their best interest to return to independence and if Temple decides it doesn't want to be part of a Southern conference anymore. If those two teams leave prior to the AAC expanding I believe the other conferences will pick off the remaining AAC teams?

The AAC isn't going anywhere. ESPN needs the inventory for ESPN+ and isn't going to let the conference dissolve to competitors. UAB, , and CSU wouldn't be strongly linked to the conference if it were on the brink of destruction.

As OP notes, MWC is really up against it as Boise State will likely be gone in 2-4 years and CUSA has lost a lot of power to Sun Belt so CUSA is at risk of getting poached.

Navy probably hangs on since they want access to Texas; Temple will probably hang on for awhile, but they are doing serious damage to basketball remaining in the AAC. The program has history, but it's a different conversation than UConn since the A-10 is nice but not spectacular -- the AAC is about to become a one bid conference though. And Temple competing against schools with better local recruiting for football will be tough.

They have a tough decision to make in Philly but I think they try it for 3-5 years before bailing when both programs crumble.

 

[UCFBfan]

Temple will probably hang on for awhile, but they are doing serious damage to basketball remaining in the AAC. The program has history, but it's a different conversation than UConn since the A-10 is nice but not spectacular -- the AAC is about to become a one bid conference though. And Temple competing against schools with better local recruiting for football will be tough.

They have a tough decision to make in Philly but I think they try it for 3-5 years before bailing when both programs crumble.

I see your logic and the payday is still a solid one. However, why stay 3-5 years and just crumble your programs? You know it's going to happen. You know the AAC is going to be a one bid, maybe two on a good year, bball league. The travel expense for their sports teams is going to be astronomical. Travelling to and CSU for baseball, soccer, etc....I just don't see why. They should go to the A-10 and see if they'd take them back and go Indy for football. They've done it before and it's likely the route they will end up going in a few years.

I'm sure they will stay for 5 years because logic is non-existent in CR. However, I just don't see how Temple survives in this conference in terms of a fit.

 

[Storrs South]

I see your logic and the payday is still a solid one. However, why stay 3-5 years and just crumble your programs?

The same reason UConn did: holding on to the P5 pipe dream, not wanting to put football at risk. They will try to make it work, but their fans too will call it quits after a couple years especially when Memphis leaves.

 

[Eavesdrop]

I often read people opining about this or that league being dead. Has any football sponsoring league besides the SWC dissolved since circa 1990? I can't think of any.

The WAC was a BIG realignment loser. Went from a 16 team league to sponsoring FCS football. But the conference still technically exists. The Metro Conference died, but it never sponsored football.

The Metro did though explore forming a football playing super conference way back in 1990.

History lesson: Super-conference concept rooted in 1990 proposal

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

North Division	South Division
Boston College	East Carolina
Cincinnati	Florida State
Pittsburgh	Louisville
Rutgers	Memphis State
Syracuse	Miami
Temple	South Carolina
Virginia Tech	Southern Mississippi
West Virginia	Tulane

 

[billybud]

I often read people opining about this or that league being dead. Has any football sponsoring league besides the SWC dissolved since circa 1990? I can't think of any.

The WAC was a BIG realignment loser. Went from a 16 team league to sponsoring FCS football. But the conference still technically exists. The Metro Conference died, but it never sponsored football.

The Metro did though explore forming a football playing super conference way back in 1990.

History lesson: Super-conference concept rooted in 1990 proposal

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

North Division	South Division
Boston College	East Carolina
Cincinnati	Florida State
Pittsburgh	Louisville
Rutgers	Memphis State
Syracuse	Miami
Temple	South Carolina
Virginia Tech	Southern Mississippi
West Virginia	Tulane

I liked the old Metro...basketball, baseball, etc....and there was some football going on between Metro members....

....in 1980, FSU played, in football, Louisville, Miami, Memphis, Boston College, Virginia Tech...and in 1979, South Carolina, Cincinnati, Miami, VT, Southern Miss, and Memphis.

And then Bobby started upgrading the schedules with a few higher level games starting in 1981....1981 Ohio State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, LSU.

 

[PaulMec]

I often read people opining about this or that league being dead. Has any football sponsoring league besides the SWC dissolved since circa 1990? I can't think of any.

The WAC was a BIG realignment loser. Went from a 16 team league to sponsoring FCS football. But the conference still technically exists. The Metro Conference died, but it never sponsored football.

The Metro did though explore forming a football playing super conference way back in 1990.

History lesson: Super-conference concept rooted in 1990 proposal

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

North Division	South Division
Boston College	East Carolina
Cincinnati	Florida State
Pittsburgh	Louisville
Rutgers	Memphis State
Syracuse	Miami
Temple	South Carolina
Virginia Tech	Southern Mississippi
West Virginia	Tulane

I just checked the Independents in the year 1990, and here is a 'where are they now'. As far as stability, here is how I ranked the top 6 conferences:

1. SEC
2. B1G
3. P12
4. ACC
5. B12
6, American

1. South Carolina
2. Penn State, Rutgers
3. ( no independents from 1990 went to the P12)
4. Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pittsburgh
5. Cincinnati, West Virginia
6. East Carolina, Temple, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa

 

[Slasher]

I just checked the Independents in the year 1990, and here is a 'where are they now'. As far as stability, here is how I ranked the top 6 conferences:

1. SEC
2. B1G
3. P12
4. ACC
5. B12
6, American

1. South Carolina
2. Penn State, Rutgers
3. ( no independents from 1990 went to the P12)
4. Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pittsburgh
5. Cincinnati, West Virginia
6. East Carolina, Temple, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa

I think ACC is clearly #3 in stability. I don't see the Pac 12 as all that stable. The B1G is already sniffing around and how many years of Pac 12 failure will it take for the top teams to want to chase that B1G payday?