The next dominoes (Sept 4 edition)

[shizzle787]

Now that the CFP looks like it is going to expand to 12, I think we will see Notre Dame officially stay independent.
Although the B1G has had conversations with Oregon and Washington, I believe these are more exploratory in nature and ultimately serve to destabilize the Pac-12. Ultimately for financial reasons, the B1G decides to stay at 16.
The Big 12 at this point has no leverage on the corner 4 schools and decides to stay at 12.
The SEC and ACC also stand pat.
I'm going back and forth as to whether the Pac-12 will stay at 10 or expand to 12, but my gut tells me ESPN is pushing for 12 (based on some comments by Burke Magnus). Therefore, the Pac-12 adds SDSU for the SoCal market and UNLV for the Vegas market. SMU is not selected as ESPN tells the Pac-12 to steer towards Vegas and leave their AAC property alone.
The MW looks around but doesn't find anyone that moves the needle and decides to stay at 10.
Gonzaga is then faced with a further dilemma: with the Pac-12 and Big 12 stable at 12 and the MW and WCC both weakened, the Zags decide to join the Big East.
The WCC elects to add Seattle to get back to 9 schools (at the behest of St. Mary's who would prefer to keep the league small).
The WAC elects to stay at 10 members.

 

[Bobol]

………. Gonzaga is then faced with a further dilemma: with the Pac-12 and Big 12 stable at 12 and the MW and WCC both weakened, the Zags decide to join the Big East.

shizzle …… thank you for sharing your thoughts.

if Gonzaga was added to the BEast, do you believe that the BEast would add 2 other schools (perhaps St. Mary’s and USanDiego) to then split into 2 divisions to minimize travel and increase TV inventory?

……. something like below which is intended to be a blend of geography and balance of strength. This proposal would allow a school to play each team in their division two times and each team in the other division once thereby reducing travel. The 3 west coast teams may increase the value of BEast media rights by making the league more attractive to that part of the country and increase exposure to the west time zone.

East Division:
UConn.
Providence.
St. John’s.
Seton Hall.
Georgetown.
Villanova.
DePaul.

West Division
Gonzaga
Creighton
Butler
Marquette
Xavier
St. Mary’s (or another school)
U San Diego (or another school)

 

[ScottVib]

I don't think there are enough dollars in the additional inventory to justify adding anyone other than Gonzaga in that scenario. Ultimately I don't think the Big East adds Gonzaga, nor do I think they need too. Fox owning the Big Ten deal solo means they have more Big Ten inventory to fill time-slots on FS1 (including late night). They're not going to pay a premium for non-premium matchups, particularly when it comes at a cost of fewer UConn/Villanova - Creighton matchups (also DePaul (Chicago) is further west than either Butler (Indy) or Xavier (Cincy)).

Even if you subscribe to the theory that ESPN needs additional inventory to replace the Big Ten games, they already the WCC deal at a lower rate than they'd have to pay Gonzaga as a member of the Big East. I think the Big East will do fine, but I don't think that the value of added inventory is bigger than the value of potential premium matchups lost with the lost of the double-round robin home/home schedule. The only way the added inventory argument wins is an ESPN environment where they are counting on Big East fans to drive ESPN+ subscriptions and that would still be dependent on schools where the fan base is energized and affluent enough to pay extra for their non-marquee matchups that don't reach linear channels.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

shizzle …… thank you for sharing your thoughts.

if Gonzaga was added to the BEast, do you believe that the BEast would add 2 other schools (perhaps St. Mary’s and USanDiego) to then split into 2 divisions to minimize travel and increase TV inventory?

……. something like below which is intended to be a blend of geography and balance of strength. This proposal would allow a school to play each team in their division two times and each team in the other division once thereby reducing travel. The 3 west coast teams may increase the value of BEast media rights by making the league more attractive to that part of the country and increase exposure to the west time zone.

East Division:
UConn.
Providence.
St. John’s.
Seton Hall.
Georgetown.
Villanova.
DePaul.

West Division
Gonzaga
Creighton
Butler
Marquette
Xavier
St. Mary’s (or another school)
U San Diego (or another school)

Makes sense to me

 

[Storrs South]

Even if you subscribe to the theory that ESPN needs additional inventory to replace the Big Ten games, they already the WCC deal at a lower rate than they'd have to pay Gonzaga as a member of the Big East.

I agree with your post, but on this one point is where we have seen ESPN willing to move pieces to ultimately pay more for them. They blessed moves like Cuse, Pitt, and Louisville to the ACC when they were paying and would have continued to pay a much lower rate for them than they were going to at the time.

I do see a scenario where ESPN would think Gonzaga v. UConn, Gonzaga v. Nova, Gonzaga v. Creighton drives significantly more eyeballs than Gonzaga v. Pepperdine, Gonzaga v. San Francisco, Gonzaga v. St. Mary's that it is worth paying more money because the ad revenue potential is also that much if not even greater than the cost. Especially since it gets Gonzaga playing in primetime east coast which rarely happens if ever.

But before that even bears outs, I would think FOX would want to poach Gonzaga and retain BE rights, but I see a scenario where ESPN is OK paying more for an existing property as well.

 

[CL82]

I agree with your post, but on this one point is where we have seen ESPN willing to move pieces to ultimately pay more for them. They blessed moves like Cuse, Pitt, and Louisville to the ACC when they were paying and would have continued to pay a much lower rate for them than they were going to at the time.

Sure, they paid more for those individual pieces, but less overall by systematically gutting the Big East conference. ESPN decided that there were one too many conferences so they funded conference realignment to destroy the Big East.

Apparently five is too many as well. So while all this consolidation happens to benefit the broadcasters, the regional and historic flavors of conferences are ruined in bit by bit we are seeing it be remade into a NFL lite version of itself. It’s a shame.