The next dominoes (October 1 edition)

[shizzle787]

I thought the next edition would be next week when the AAC expanded with the MW duo but, alas, it was not meant to be.

Therefore, the Mountain West becomes the de-facto #6 conference. With Mark Few retiring soon and the MW gaining stability, Gonzaga decides to bite the bullet and join for Olympic sports.

The MW then proactively expands into Texas adding two schools: Rice and UTSA.

West: SJSU, SDSU, Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, Boise State
Mountain: USU, Rice, UTSA, AFA, CSU, Wyoming, New Mexico

This means that the AAC, now the #7 conference, needs to beef up. I could see only expanding by two, but getting to only 10 doesn't look good for stability; therefore, they expand by four.

The four selected are UAB, North Texas, Charlotte, and FAU (not the greatest combo but gets the #1 available realistic target left-UAB, a Texas school-UTEP, a Florida school-FAU, and an old C-USA friend-Charlotte).

West: Tulsa, Navy, UTEP, SMU, Tulane, Memphis
East: USF, ECU, Temple, Charlotte, FAU, UAB

For those counting this leaves C-USA with just 8 schools.

The Sun Belt then gains pole position over C-USA by adding 4 schools:
Marshall, Southern Miss, Old Dominion, and North Texas

West: North Texas, Texas State, USM, Ark State, USA, UL Monroe, Louisiana
East: ODU, Marshall, CCU, App State, Troy, Georgia St, Georgia Southern

The MAC then decides to add two of the four remaining C-USA programs: MTSU and WKU

West: MTSU, WKU, NIU, Ball State, EMU, WMU, CMU
East: Toledo, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Akron, Kent State, Miami, Ohio

C-USA is now down to two schools: FIU and LaTech. The conference dissolves.

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, UMass, Liberty, NMSU, FIU, LaTech.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

The independents school are interesting, I wonder if we could work out a home and home with FIU and LaTech. Give them a WBB game as an bonus.

 

[noeynox]

I look forward to these. Keep em coming.

 

[ScottVib]

If the AAC adds UAB, FAU, North Texas & Charlotte, they are looking more and more likely a $3 million/school/year max. At that point Wichita's payout (~30% of the total team payout) drops below a million per year and that makes them likely to look to bolt. Similarly that also pushes the payout at least 25% per team/year below the Mountain West... a conference who's TV deal comes up for renegotiation in 2 years, unlike the AAC's stupidly long deal.

That is where things become interesting to a SMU. A chance to make more money per year... a more stable and higher quality conference situation for both football and basketball all will be attractive. Memphis won't leave, because they aren't about to risk paying two sets of exit fees... but SMU knows it's not in the Big XII mix... a move makes sense for them.

 

[ScottVib]

In my scenario with SMU going to the Mountain West, I expect it to be instead of UTSA.. UTSA would assume a spot in the AAC. I'm not sold on North Texas, and I don't think North Texas gets added if SMU is actually in the conference as they'd be a redundant market.

Also you put North Texas into both the Sun Belt and the AAC. The fact that the AAC is stuck looking at Sun Belt targets tells you all you need to know about how badly things have gone for them.

I did just notice that you said North Texas but listed UTEP.. I'm not sure anyone from the AAC wants to travel to El Paso, which is actually further west than the Colorado schools which just declined their invite and is in Mountain Time.

 

[UCFBfan]

Lol!!! The AAC is so screwed. I'm really curious what ESPN is going to do now that they are stuck with this disaster of a conference. They have cheap content, sure. But what happens when no one watches the content?? I'm still not convinced that Navy doesn't go back to independence and Wichita heads back out for basketball.

 

[UConnJim]

SMU and Tulsa were in the WAC with most of the MWC schools. They are a natural fit and I think it could happen. AAC is dead.

 

[superjohn]

"With Mark Few retiring soon." Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

[shizzle787]

"With Mark Few retiring soon." Where do you come up with this stuff?

He’s 60. Within 10 years, he’ll be done. 10 years is one realignment away.

 

[superjohn]

He’s 60. Within 10 years, he’ll be done. 10 years is one realignment away.

He's 58, he's not retiring anytime soon and there will obviously be more realignment in the next 10 years.

 

[VCE]

How old is coach K? Boeheim?

 

[SoFla Steve]

How old is coach K? Boeheim?

Coach K is 74, JBoe turns 77 next month.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I'm beginning to think Shizzle is as deluded as Chief.

Rice and UTEP bring value? Perhaps in some alternate reality. Gonzaga adding quiteca bit of travel to a conference schedule that has no natural rivalries and no real improvement in overall quality? Go on the men's hoops forum and see what they feel about our years in the AAC.

The AAC will always battle with the MW as the best of the also rans but (shy of the delusional article stating the MW should raid the PAC-12) there are no value moves to be made for either conference.

 

[ZooCougar]

Why does the MAC have to do anything? They are comfortable in their own skin.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I'm beginning to think Shizzle is as deluded as Chief.

Rice and UTEP bring value? Perhaps in some alternate reality. Gonzaga adding quiteca bit of travel to a conference schedule that has no natural rivalries and no real improvement in overall quality? Go on the men's hoops forum and see what they feel about our years in the AAC.

The AAC will always battle with the MW as the best of the also rans but (shy of the delusional article stating the MW should raid the PAC-12) there are no value moves to be made for either conference.

For some reason he thinks that there HAS to be continued conference realignment. But, the last 15 or so years shows relatively little movement. University presidents are focused (and rightly so) on things other than jumping through hoops (and possibly negatively effecting their Olympic sports athletes) to bring in another 5 or 10 million bucks a year within their AD's via football centric moves.

Put yourself in the shoes of a university president and you'd probably manage it the same way.

 

[shizzle787]

For some reason he thinks that there HAS to be continued conference realignment. But, the last 15 or so years shows relatively little movement. University presidents are focused (and rightly so) on things other than jumping through hoops (and possibly negatively effecting their Olympic sports athletes) to bring in another 5 or 10 million bucks a year within their AD's via football centric moves.

Put yourself in the shoes of a university president and you'd probably manage it the same way.

There does. The AAC is below the NCAA threshold for all sports members. There literally HAS to be more realignment. Also, there has been a ton of movement in the last 15 years. The WAC is no longer an FBS conference, the Big East football conference blew up, etc.

 

[shizzle787]

Why does the MAC have to do anything? They are comfortable in their own skin.

The would do it in this scenario to destroy C-USA and therefore get a bigger share of the CFP pie.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Yes, the AAC needs to add replacement schools (minimum 2, most likely 4) and logically they will want to restore second schools in Texas (logically Rice or UTSA) and Florida (logically FAU or FIU). Beyond this, they could look at currently somewhat attractive Coastal Carolina and Liberty (if they care about an eastern footprint and believe the recent success is sustainable). There are about a half dozen other reasonable candidates depending on what they are thinking.

That said, I'm not sure conferences are going to expand unless a) it leads to a clear, measurable improvement in their overall standing or b) they need to replace lost members. It appears the AAC attempted to do both (trying to raid ty he MW) but failed, now they need to hit plan B to replace membership.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

There does. The AAC is below the NCAA threshold for all sports members. There literally HAS to be more realignment. Also, there has been a ton of movement in the last 15 years. The WAC is no longer an FBS conference, the Big East football conference blew up, etc.

Yes, there is always a decent amount of insignificant churn going on outside of the P5. In 15 years, only MD and Rutgers moved conferences within the P5. I wouldn't call this realignment.

 

[ZooCougar]

The would do it in this scenario to destroy C-USA and therefore get a bigger share of the CFP pie.

The MAC has never really cared about that.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Yes, there is always a decent amount of insignificant churn going on outside of the P5. In 15 years, only MD and Rutgers moved conferences within the P5. I wouldn't call this realignment.

you missed some of the action
Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 (in process ) for the SEC
Nebraka went to the Big 10 , Colo and Utah to the PAC
Missouri and Texas AM to the SEC.
,WestVa , TCU, BYU , Houston , Cinncy , UCF , moved to the B12
Syracuse,Pittsburgh and Louisville moved to the ACC
All in the last 10 years
Of course every thing that happened in P5 had a downward effect
The Big East ( AAC) and Big 12 losing so many teams required additions that required other additions

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

you missed some of the action
Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 (in process ) for the SEC
Nebraka went to the Big 10 , Colo and Utah to the PAC
Missouri and Texas AM to the SEC.
,WestVa , TCU, BYU , Houston , Cinncy , UCF , moved to the B12
Syracuse,Pittsburgh and Louisville moved to the ACC
All in the last 10 years
Of course every thing that happened in P5 had a downward effect
The Big East ( AAC) and Big 12 losing so many teams required additions that required other additions

My bad/you're right - I did miss some: Missouri, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Utah. The others were non-P5 (although the BE was playing better than some of the P5).

 

[Hogoff]

My bad/you're right - I did miss some: Missouri, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Utah. The others were non-P5 (although the BE was playing better than some of the P5).

There was no such thing as the power 5 10 years ago. It was BCS and non BCS and The Big East was part of the BCS.

 

[UConnJim]

Yes, there is always a decent amount of insignificant churn going on outside of the P5. In 15 years, only MD and Rutgers moved conferences within the P5. I wouldn't call this realignment.

The one constant in conference realignment is that it is ongoing and I think money will become an even bigger factor. Out of the 5 P5 conferences, only the Big 10 and the SEC are stable and they are pulling away from all of the other conferences on a revenue basis. Some ACC and Pac 12 schools may have to make a choice down the road about moving to another conference for more money or accept the revenue divide. (I'm not saying they are moving tomorrow, but sometime down the road it is possible.) And, every Big 12 school would leave if another P5 conference came calling.

And, we don't understand the future college sports revenue models. Are schools going to be able to be compensated individually? (Remember, Texas LHN was all about that.) How will streaming impact conference networks and cable network deals? Will the bigger conference schools be willing to subsidize the smaller schools in their conference? Will conferences like the SEC and Big 10 become umbrella conferences with a large number of schools under their banner with many divisions? Why couldn't the Big 10, for example, have 4 divisions of 7 schools: Big 10 East, Big 10 West, 7 Pac 12 schools, and 7 ACC schools? You keep the rivalries, play some schools in the other divisions and have the 4 division winners have a playoff?


Going back to 1990, here are the major conference football moves:

1990: Penn State to Big 10

1991: Florida State to ACC, Arkansas and South Carolina to SEC, Miami, Rutgers, WV, Virginia Tech, and Temple to BE

1996: Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M leave SWC to merge with Big 8 to form Big 12.

2004: Miami and Virginia Tech to ACC, UConn to BE

2005: BC to ACC, Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF to BE, Temple kicked out of BE

2011: Colorado and Utah to Pac 12, Nebraska to Big 10

2012: Texas A&M and Missouri to SEC, TCU and WV to Big 12

2013: Pitt and Syracuse to ACC

2014: Louisville to ACC, Maryland and Rutgers to Big 10

Future: Oklahoma and Texas to SEC, Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston to Big 12

 

[Eavesdrop]

I believe Air Force and Colorado State remaining in the Mountain West is best for all involved (the MWC, AAC, and both schools).

The Mountain West as constituted makes sense. I don't see why the league needs to do anything. Adding Gonzaga (as the OP suggested) in all sports but football would nicely balance football-only Hawai'i. But it's not a must.

Truly believe the AAC will be better served by tighter geography over the long term. I'd advocate for filling the middle of the footprint with UAB, Georgia State and Charlotte. I'd then suggest adding one school from South Florida (either FAU or FIU) or one school from Texas.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

My bad/you're right - I did miss some: Missouri, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Utah. The others were non-P5 (although the BE was playing better than some of the P5).

There was no such thing as the P5 until the Big East fell apart
Prior to 2012-13 they had major conference status
Aresco attempted to maintain that status by adding
TCU,Boise , and San Diego State
But a spot opened up in Big 12 for TCU
Maryland Bolted from the ACC and Louisville left to fill that void
Would a conference with
TCU
Louisville
Boise
San Diego State
Houston
SMU
UCF
USF
Cinncy
UConn
Navy

among others be legitimate P6,possibly