The next dominoes (November 29 CBB edition)

[shizzle787]

The dominoes have fallen in football-land but we are about to witness a new dawn of dominoes in the basketball realm.

I believe for the time being the 10 FBS conferences, the Atlantic 10, Big West, SWAC, Patriot, and Ivy will stay put for a while.

Here are my predictions for the basketball moves that will take place by 2023:

After losing Loyola to the A-10, the Missouri Valley is up. They select two schools: UIC (Chicago market) and Murray State (good mid-major basketball brand) to bring their total up to 12.

The Big East has been rumored to expand recently. Gonzaga has been mentioned but I believe geography will prove to be the deal-breaker. However, I do think the Big East and Gonzaga will strike a deal for the Zags to play four BE schools a year (two at home and two away). The Big East will be influenced by FOX and the fact they are now the smallest power basketball conference and expand by one school: St. Louis. The Bilikens are located in a market untouched by the Big East and do have a traditional basketball brand. It is not the most exciting pick but having 12 teams and the Gonzaga deal all but guarantees the league 6 bids a year.

As Gonzaga decides to stay put, they realize that is in their best interest to expand the WCC by one school and keep the 16-game schedule so that they can avoid playing the bottom few teams in the league twice. Their choice: Denver. The conference is now up to 10 schools.

The CAA is up. With departure of James Madison, the league decides to add three schools: Howard, Hampton, and Monmouth. The first two are HBCUs with football and the latter is a solid mid-major basketball brand. The conference is now up to 12 schools.

The SoCon has been quiet on the realignment front for a while but plays opportunist and grabs Winthrop (good mid-major basketball brand) to get to 11 schools.

The WAC is at 13 schools with the departures of NMSU and SHSU and the additions of Incarnate Word and Southern Utah. They add Houston Baptist to get to an even 14.

The Atlantic Sun is at 11 schools with the departures of Liberty and Jacksonville State and the addition of Austin Peay. They add Little Rock
to get the league back to 12 schools.

The MAAC looks around after losing Monmouth and decides to grab Wagner and Bryant to get to 12.

America East looks around and decides to stay at 9 following the departure of University of Hartford.

The NEC invites the University of New Haven (D2) following the departures of Wagner and Bryant to stay at 9.

The Horizon looks around and invites Western Illinois to get back to 12 schools following the departure of UIC.

The Big South decides to stay put at 10 following the departures of Winthrop and Hampton.

The big booms begin now. The Big Sky invites the Dakota 4 to join forming a 14-team league. NDSU, SDSU, UND, and USD accept.

At this point, things are getting desperate for the remaining teams. The MEAC invites Tennessee State and Chicago State following the departure of Howard to get to 9 schools.

The Southland invites UMKC and UT-Arlington to join Texas A&M Commerce following the departures of UIW and Houston Baptist to get the league up to 9 members.

The six remaining OVC members invite the remaining Summit members- St. Thomas, Oral Roberts, and Omaha- and Southern Indiana (D2) to replace the departing members-Murray State, Tennessee State, Austin Peay, and Belmont-to get to 10 members.

The Summit is no more. With Hartford dropping to Division 3 and Texas A&M Commerce, Southern Indiana, and New Haven moving up, Division 1 would have 360 schools.

 

[ScottVib]

A few thoughts....

1.) No conference will die. The autobid and dollars from the NCAA tournament is enough of an attraction that schools will stick around to collect those credits. The Summit may lose its bid for a year or two until enough teams are together long enough to qualify but they'll find schools to join. Plus the credits left in that conference and any exit fees will be worth something.

2.) The Big East will not give up the round-robin for St. Louis. They aren't good enough, aren't an attractive enough entity to TV markets to risk the second UConn - St. John's game or Villanova - UConn game for a game with the Billikens... and I don't see them going to a 22 game conference schedule. For the Big East to expand it has to be a school who adds something more than filler inventory... and in this case the Billikens merely dilute the pot. It's got to be a Gonzaga-esque school.... someone that brings in premium content attractive nationally; someone that brings in consistent tournament credits and cache.

3.) I don't see Wagner and Bryant leaving a league that has football for one that does not. New Haven may join the NEC.. but ultimately 12 and/or bigger is not necessarily better for the MAAC and losing Monmouth isn't going to be a deal breaker for them.

4.) The Big Sky already had North Dakota.. they were happy enough to see them leave for the Summit. I don't know that they are interested in bringing back the Dakota 4... and keep in mind each of the four is close to the Minnesota/Iowa border making them a poor travel fit for a conference that already has tough travel.


Ultimately the big thing is.. for many of these conferences bigger isn't necessarily better as they aren't gaining TV dollars; increasing travel costs significantly for a marginal gain is a tougher argument to make.