shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Over the last few days, a lot has changed to sway opinion regarding the battle between the Big 12 and Pac-12, the B1G taking a flyer on Washington and Oregon, and the ACC GOR maybe not being as iron-clad as previously thought.
I ultimately believe Notre Dame will get its way again. They will remain independent by pitting NBC/independence against FOX/B1G. This will result in a huge pay raise from NBC. I believe they will go from somewhere between $15 million/year to $45 million/year. They are worth it and NBC will give in to keep the property. Between the football money and the 10-15 million from the ACC Olympic sports deal, they will be getting about 75-80% of what the SEC and B1G schools will be getting. They will live with that.
This will result in the SEC and B1G staying put at 16, and the ACC staying at 14.5.
I think the real drama is in the Pac-12/Big 12 battle. The corner four schools are talking to the Big 12 tomorrow but I think they are there for two reasons: 1) as a back-up plan in case UW/OU leave for the B1G and 2) to convince a few schools privately to come to the Pac-12.
In my opinion, the USC/UCLA-less Pac-12 has more brands and is more valuable (according to media reports) than the UT/OU-less Big 12. Therefore, reason suggests (even with amortizing a Big 12 buy-out), schools moving from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 make out in the long run.
Assuming no further movement among the SEC, B1G, ACC, and ND; I project the Pac-12 raids the Big 12 for four schools: Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Houston. The Pac-12 will give up its academic snobbery a little but will not give up religious snobbery.
This leaves the Big 12 with eight schools: TCU, BYU, Baylor, WVU, K-State, ISU, Cincy, and UCF. With each of the four conferences ahead of them in the pecking order at 14 or more, the Big 12 follows suit and adds USF, SMU, and Memphis from the AAC and Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State from the MW.
The Mountain West is up next. I believe their only target will be UTEP to get back to 10 for now....
The American at this point will be down to 11 schools. ESPN at this point tells the schools it is going to drastically cut the TV deal. The schools unilaterally agree to lower the exit fee from $10 million to a much lower number as the TV revenue falls (as several are being courted elsewhere). The second this happens, Navy declares it will go independent again. Shortly afterward, Temple does the same and announces it will go to the Atlantic 10.
Wichita State at this point is moving frantically. As the A-10 has moved to 16, they decide to stay put. The WCC does not want non-religious members. The Big East does not like Wichita State's profile. However, they do find a home. The MW adds WSU as an Olympic-only member to get to 10 Olympic schools.
Tulsa and Rice then contact the MW and are accepted to move to 12 schools in football and basketball.
At this point, 7 schools remain: Tulane, ECU, UTSA, UNT, Charlotte, FAU, UAB. The MW then grabs UNT and UTSA to gain a foothold in Texas and get to 14.
With the changing nature of the CFP and NCAA committee, there is no guarantee any conference but the SEC and B1G will be getting CFP money.
As a result, Tulane, ECU, UAB, and Charlotte work out a deal with ESPN and the Southern whereby the four schools go independent and join the SoCon for Olympic sports. As to why they would disband the AAC and/or not join the Sun Belt: 1) they would have more visibility if they played a smattering of opponents including Temple, Navy, Army, UConn, and UMass as opposed to Sun Belt or C-USA programs. 2) The Southern is a better basketball conference than a rebuilt AAC or Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt and MAC stays put.
C-USA is down to 8 schools at this point. They add FAU to get back to 9.
This would result in the elimination of a conference. Number of schools by conference:
B1G: 16
SEC: 16
ACC: 14 (15-Olympic)
Pac-12: 14
Big 12: 14
MW: 14 (14-Olympic)
SB: 14
MAC: 12
C-USA: 9
Indies: 9
I ultimately believe Notre Dame will get its way again. They will remain independent by pitting NBC/independence against FOX/B1G. This will result in a huge pay raise from NBC. I believe they will go from somewhere between $15 million/year to $45 million/year. They are worth it and NBC will give in to keep the property. Between the football money and the 10-15 million from the ACC Olympic sports deal, they will be getting about 75-80% of what the SEC and B1G schools will be getting. They will live with that.
This will result in the SEC and B1G staying put at 16, and the ACC staying at 14.5.
I think the real drama is in the Pac-12/Big 12 battle. The corner four schools are talking to the Big 12 tomorrow but I think they are there for two reasons: 1) as a back-up plan in case UW/OU leave for the B1G and 2) to convince a few schools privately to come to the Pac-12.
In my opinion, the USC/UCLA-less Pac-12 has more brands and is more valuable (according to media reports) than the UT/OU-less Big 12. Therefore, reason suggests (even with amortizing a Big 12 buy-out), schools moving from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 make out in the long run.
Assuming no further movement among the SEC, B1G, ACC, and ND; I project the Pac-12 raids the Big 12 for four schools: Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Houston. The Pac-12 will give up its academic snobbery a little but will not give up religious snobbery.
This leaves the Big 12 with eight schools: TCU, BYU, Baylor, WVU, K-State, ISU, Cincy, and UCF. With each of the four conferences ahead of them in the pecking order at 14 or more, the Big 12 follows suit and adds USF, SMU, and Memphis from the AAC and Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State from the MW.
The Mountain West is up next. I believe their only target will be UTEP to get back to 10 for now....
The American at this point will be down to 11 schools. ESPN at this point tells the schools it is going to drastically cut the TV deal. The schools unilaterally agree to lower the exit fee from $10 million to a much lower number as the TV revenue falls (as several are being courted elsewhere). The second this happens, Navy declares it will go independent again. Shortly afterward, Temple does the same and announces it will go to the Atlantic 10.
Wichita State at this point is moving frantically. As the A-10 has moved to 16, they decide to stay put. The WCC does not want non-religious members. The Big East does not like Wichita State's profile. However, they do find a home. The MW adds WSU as an Olympic-only member to get to 10 Olympic schools.
Tulsa and Rice then contact the MW and are accepted to move to 12 schools in football and basketball.
At this point, 7 schools remain: Tulane, ECU, UTSA, UNT, Charlotte, FAU, UAB. The MW then grabs UNT and UTSA to gain a foothold in Texas and get to 14.
With the changing nature of the CFP and NCAA committee, there is no guarantee any conference but the SEC and B1G will be getting CFP money.
As a result, Tulane, ECU, UAB, and Charlotte work out a deal with ESPN and the Southern whereby the four schools go independent and join the SoCon for Olympic sports. As to why they would disband the AAC and/or not join the Sun Belt: 1) they would have more visibility if they played a smattering of opponents including Temple, Navy, Army, UConn, and UMass as opposed to Sun Belt or C-USA programs. 2) The Southern is a better basketball conference than a rebuilt AAC or Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt and MAC stays put.
C-USA is down to 8 schools at this point. They add FAU to get back to 9.
This would result in the elimination of a conference. Number of schools by conference:
B1G: 16
SEC: 16
ACC: 14 (15-Olympic)
Pac-12: 14
Big 12: 14
MW: 14 (14-Olympic)
SB: 14
MAC: 12
C-USA: 9
Indies: 9
