The next dominoes (July 3 edition)

[shizzle787]

We are now into the 25/26 academic year...

The first big bomb will not be a realignment move. It will be the NCAA
announcing the expansion of the men's and women's tournament to 76 teams. The First Dozen will be played at two sites- Dayton and Las Vegas. Of the 24 teams playing on Tuesday and Wednesday, 16 will be at-large and 8 will be auto bids.

One downstream effect of this is that the Big East sees no need to expand with Memphis (even if institutional concerns are mitigated) as the league will likely get 5-7 bids going forward.

I expect the news to come out toward the end of July.

Around the same time, I expect the mediation between the Pac-12 and MW to come to completion. Both will declare victory, but the truth will be somewhere in between.

August will drop media deal news. The Pac-12 will announce its other three partners in a total deal worth 8.25 million per school.

The MW will also announce its new deal worth 3.75 million per school.

Things are quiet again until November when the next bomb drops: the CFP expands to 16 with a 5+11 format.

November will prove to be a busy month for the UAC. The 8-member league is on the hunt for more football schools. The league announces UT-Martin as its ninth basketball member and eighth football member.

Things go quiet again until March...

The Sun Belt then announces it fourteenth member for the 2027 season: Louisiana Tech.

Conference USA decides to remain at 10 for the time being.

The day after Selection Sunday in 2026 another bomb drops: the Pac-12 announces the addition of St. Mary's for the 26/27 season. The Pac-12 is unable to convince UConn or any AAC or MW schools to join for football. It keeps its eyes open for UNLV in the future but decides to go forward with 10 basketball schools and 8 football schools.

The Mountain West then decides to get in on the act and poaches UC Irvine and UC San Diego from the Big West to get to 12 members.

The WCC fires first and adds Cal Baptist to get back to nine members.
The league then decides to stand pat.

The Big West is down to 9 members. It kicks tires on Denver, but ultimately decides to stay at 9.

In April, the SoCon makes one of the more surprising moves in recent realignment history: it forgives past transgressions and invites Elon and Campbell to get to 12 members. Elon accepts first, and Campbell decides to make the move as well.

This leaves CAA with 11 members in basketball and 10 in football. Charleston and UNC Wilmington push for another southern member, and the league decides to invite High Point to get back to 12 in basketball.

As a result of these moves, the Big South is down to 8 members, the Atlantic Sun is down to 7 members, and the OVC is down to 10 members.

The Atlantic Sun makes the first move: it invites Little Rock and Morehead State to get to 9 members.

Given their football arrangement, neither the Big South or OVC poach from each other. They decide to enter into a scheduling agreement so that they can both remain at 8 members without having to dip into Division 2 for reinforcements.

These moves result in 364 Division 1 schools, 32 conferences, and 136 FBS schools.

 

[Jetskies]

man... if the CAA were a stock, time to sell sell sell.

 

[DFW HOYA]

One downstream effect of this is that the Big East sees no need to expand with Memphis (even if institutional concerns are mitigated) as the league will likely get 5-7 bids going forward.

Had UConn not rejoined the Big East, it would still not be looking to expand past 10. Gonzaga was never going to be a serious candidate and neither is Memphis. And that's OK.

 

[ScottVib]

I like the logic (and agree Gonzaga wasn't ever going to be a realistic candidate and Memphis still is a extraordinarily unlikely candidate that would've had a less than zero percent shot at the Big East (if that was possible) without UConn having already at least demonstrated the separate path in FBS for football/basketball)... but I suspect that it's not the case and the Big East would've at least had some serious deliberations. Without UConn it feels like to achieve the current TV deal the Big East may well have had to increase inventory (and it got some increased (and high value) inventory with UConn); UConn's recent success may have helped keep the line to 11 instead of 12.

 

[shizzle787]

I like the logic (and agree Gonzaga wasn't ever going to be a realistic candidate and Memphis still is a extraordinarily unlikely candidate that would've had a less than zero percent shot at the Big East (if that was possible) without UConn having already at least demonstrated the separate path in FBS for football/basketball)... but I suspect that it's not the case and the Big East would've at least had some serious deliberations. Without UConn it feels like to achieve the current TV deal the Big East may well have had to increase inventory (and it got some increased (and high value) inventory with UConn); UConn's recent success may have helped keep the line to 11 instead of 12.

IMO, if Memphis were to add at least 7.3 million to the TV deal (a pro rata share), the league stayed at 20 conference games, and Tigers agreed to an exit fee structure slightly more expensive than ours, I would not be opposed to them joining. They are a good basketball brand and would fit in well in the western half of the league. Overall, whether they join or not, I would be happy either way.

 

[ScottVib]

If they only add a pro-rata share, I'm not sure there is a big incentive for some of the ADs in the league to add them, especially if they'll be banking even bigger non-basketball revenues than UConn (via a Pac-12 football share). Even if you're UConn do you want to provide a lifeline to greater overall funding for Memphis, putting your position for a potential spot in the P4 (well M2) into a tougher competition (this situation becomes moot if UConn was also joining a (particularly the same) conference as a football only member)? If you're DePaul or Georgetown or Butler do you want to bring in someone else who'll make your return to relevance harder... especially if they don't add anything new to the pot... and potentially cost you a lucrative home game with the UConn Men's or Women's basketball team (through the loss of the double round-robin)?

IMO, for the Big East to entertain that move they have to be getting a greater than pro-rata bump for adding the Tigers, otherwise there isn't really a material benefit to the current membership for adding Memphis (but there would be for Memphis to join). As it currently stands the Big East membership without football will be about 85% of a full Pac-8 share.

 

[Stinger92860]

As it currently stands the Big East membership without football will be about 85% of a full Pac-8 share.

I did not know this. Much better than I anticipated. I wonder what the PAC would give us for football only, plus a few bball games? Every penny helps, but would 4 trips out west for FB eat up the ROI?

 

[Hskies4Ever]

We don’t know what the value of the PAC deal is yet, but if we take a conservative estimate and say the total deal is $8.5 million (estimates I’ve seen have been between 8 and 12), and say (conservatively) 70% of that is for football (I have typically seen football credited with 80% of a conference media deal) then we could anticipate about $6 million. Between the BE and Pac that would be about $13 million before post season credits are considered.

I don’t know about a travel budget to get a football team to the west coast, but I know $6 million is about 12x more than the media money we get now. I also know that the teams we’d play in the Pac would be more interesting than the MAC, Conference USA, and Sun Belt teams we’ve played. They’d also be better opponents and make a better case for us moving into a P4 league. Ticket sales would improve, and you’d still be able to schedule ACC schools with the relatively limited conference schedule. You’d also 1. Be getting playoff revenue sharing (the Pac is probably ahead of the AAC at this point and would likely have the inside track to playoff access) and 2. You’d have an opportunity to actually get into the playoff with a good season.

I know it’s not popular, but I think there’s a lot of upside.

 

[ZooCougar]

We don’t know what the value of the PAC deal is yet, but if we take a conservative estimate and say the total deal is $8.5 million (estimates I’ve seen have been between 8 and 12), and say (conservatively) 70% of that is for football (I have typically seen football credited with 80% of a conference media deal) then we could anticipate about $6 million. Between the BE and Pac that would be about $13 million before post season credits are considered.

I don’t know about a travel budget to get a football team to the west coast, but I know $6 million is about 12x more than the media money we get now. I also know that the teams we’d play in the Pac would be more interesting than the MAC, Conference USA, and Sun Belt teams we’ve played. They’d also be better opponents and make a better case for us moving into a P4 league. Ticket sales would improve, and you’d still be able to schedule ACC schools with the relatively limited conference schedule. You’d also 1. Be getting playoff revenue sharing (the Pac is probably ahead of the AAC at this point and would likely have the inside track to playoff access) and 2. You’d have an opportunity to actually get into the playoff with a good season.

I know it’s not popular, but I think there’s a lot of upside.

For all we know the terms the PAC we’re offering were terrible. There is a very good reason why they had to work so hard to get enough members. I highly doubt that the revenue distributions aren’t heavily slanted towards the PAC 2.

 

[ZooCougar]

IMO, if Memphis were to add at least 7.3 million to the TV deal (a pro rata share), the league stayed at 20 conference games, and Tigers agreed to an exit fee structure slightly more expensive than ours, I would not be opposed to them joining. They are a good basketball brand and would fit in well in the western half of the league. Overall, whether they join or not, I would be happy either way.

It screws up our double round Robin.

And I can’t seem the Catholics adding yet another school that just sees the conference as a rest stop.

No. You have such LOW standards too.

 

[ZooCougar]

Also the CAA morphing into the Big South is nothing short of hilarious. What will URI, UNH and Maine do?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

If they only add a pro-rata share, I'm not sure there is a big incentive for some of the ADs in the league to add them, especially if they'll be banking even bigger non-basketball revenues than UConn (via a Pac-12 football share). Even if you're UConn do you want to provide a lifeline to greater overall funding for Memphis, putting your position for a potential spot in the P4 (well M2) into a tougher competition (this situation becomes moot if UConn was also joining a (particularly the same) conference as a football only member)? If you're DePaul or Georgetown or Butler do you want to bring in someone else who'll make your return to relevance harder... especially if they don't add anything new to the pot... and potentially cost you a lucrative home game with the UConn Men's or Women's basketball team (through the loss of the double round-robin)?

IMO, for the Big East to entertain that move they have to be getting a greater than pro-rata bump for adding the Tigers, otherwise there isn't really a material benefit to the current membership for adding Memphis (but there would be for Memphis to join). As it currently stands the Big East membership without football will be about 85% of a full Pac-8 share.

No to Memphis. End of story. Enough life rafts for other schools.