The next dominoes (January 24 basketball edition)

[shizzle787]

With more realignment news this week, I figured now would be a good time to try and handicap realignment going forward. Assuming UIC to the MVC and Stony Brook, Hampton, and Monmouth to the CAA go forward, here are the dominoes:

Among the major basketball leagues (P5+Big East), every one goes about the business. The A10, MVC, and AAC are content as well.

The first domino goes to the Mountain West. Due to geography and and giving up an aggressive share of the TV money, the MW ultimately secures the services of Gonzaga as the Big East decides the geography isn't worth it. Gonzaga sees itself in a league with St. Mary's and the seven dwarfs and realizes it's time to move on. They move for the 23-24 season.

The WCC responds by adding Seattle and Cal Baptist. Neither have football and both fit the league institutionally.

C-USA has been waiting around the NCAA convention to take shape, and now that it has, they realize they need to get to 10 for stability. They add Stephen F. Austin to round out the league.

The WAC at this point is all of a sudden down to 10 teams. The magic number for non-major leagues is quickly becoming 12 so the WAC expands by two: Houston Baptist and Texas A&M Commerce. It would also leave them with 8 football schools: a more stable number.

The MAAC is currently down to 10 schools but has announced they would like to get to 12: they add Wagner and Mt. St. Mary's to accomplish that goal.

The Horizon simply replaces UIC with Bellarmine to get back to 12 schools.

The Atlantic Sun would then be down to 10 schools. It responds by adding Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State to get back to 12 schools.

The Big South at this point would be at 11 teams. They invite UT-Martin to get to 12 schools overall and 6 in football.

At this point, the OVC is down to 5 schools and the Southland is down to 6. They decide to merge and invite Chicago State to form a 12-team league (name unknown).

The last conference to get in the sweepstakes is the NEC. After two defections each to the MAAC and AEC, the league is down to 6 schools. It responds by adding four schools from Division 2: New Haven, Pace, Bentley, and West Chester.

The end result is that Division 1 only grows by 4 schools to 362 but loses a conference resulting in 31 conferences.

 

[Drew]

Believe Chicago State is headed to the revamped MEAC which needs to add quite a few teams in the coming years

 

[shizzle787]

Believe Chicago State is headed to the revamped MEAC which needs to add quite a few teams in the coming years

Just saw that via Matt Brown. Begs question if HBCUs Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech join as well or try to get in the SWAC.

 

[ScottVib]

I don't see Gonzaga to the Mountain West. There's unlikely to be enough extra revenue and they currently get solid exposure on ESPN in the late night timeslot (14 ESPN broadcasts, 1 CBS and 3 CBS Sports Network), they'd increase their travel costs and the MWC isn't going to significantly bolster their profile competitively or from a recruiting standpoint.

There's absolutely going to be continued impact on the eastern half of the nation and who knows maybe that bleeds further to the west.

 

[dbmill]

Just saw that via Matt Brown. Begs question if HBCUs Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech join as well or try to get in the SWAC.

Tennessee State is a HBCU, but Tennessee Tech is not considered an HBCU.

For many years Tennessee State was the only Division 1 HBSU school that was not in either the MEAC or the SWAC. That has certainly changed. With the conference shuffle now having a big effect on the Ohio Valley Conference, it will be interesting to see where Tennessee State ends up.

 

[shizzle787]

Tennessee State is a HBCU, but Tennessee Tech is not considered an HBCU.

For many years Tennessee State was the only Division 1 HBSU school that was not in either the MEAC or the SWAC. That has certainly changed. With the conference shuffle now having a big effect on the Ohio Valley Conference, it will be interesting to see where Tennessee State ends up.

You're right. For some reason I thought it was an HBCU. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if Tennessee State were to join with Chicago State for a neat 10-team league.