The next dominoes given today's Pac-12 non news.

[shizzle787]

With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

The Big 12 expands by 2 to get to 10: BYU and Cincy

They go with an 8-game 2-division schedule to maximize OOC

West: BYU, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State
East: Cincy, WVU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

With still having both Texas and Florida schools as well as Navy, the American can go after a part of the MW.

The American expands by 2 to get to 12: Air Force and Colorado State
West: Air Force, Colorado State, Navy, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
East: UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Memphis, Temple

The Mountain West expands by 2 to get to 12: Rice and UTEP
Pacific: San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico

C-USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt stay put at 12, 12, and 10 members respectively.

The independents (sans BYU) stay the same.

Gonzaga joins the Mountain West for Olympic sports due to BYU's departure.

 

[CL82]

With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official. I am also starting to change my view on BYU. I think they may bite the bullet as their scheduling may take a hit down the road due to the alliance. Therefore,

The Big 12 expands by 2 to get to 10: BYU and Cincy

They go with an 8-game 2-division schedule to maximize OOC

West: BYU, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State
East: Cincy, WVU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

With still having both Texas and Florida schools as well as Navy, the American can go after a part of the MW.

The American expands by 2 to get to 12: Air Force and Colorado State
West: Air Force, Colorado State, Navy, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
East: UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Memphis, Temple

The Mountain West expands by 2 to get to 12: Rice and UTEP
Pacific: San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico

C-USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt stay put at 12, 12, and 10 members respectively.

The independents (sans BYU) stay the same.

Gonzaga joins the Mountain West for Olympic sports due to BYU's departure.

Who is going to pay for the addition of BYU and Cinci? Just curious.

 

[shizzle787]

Who is going to pay for the addition of BYU and Cinci? Just curious.

ESPN or Fox. You can't have an 8-team basketball conference. It doesn't make sense for scheduling or tournament bids.

 

[bendm]

they have to do the math of course but now the Big12 needs to add the most profitable (or least damaging?) combination of: UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St.

Idk what that combination is. BYU and UCF are the most desirable, probably followed by Cincy and maybe Houston, but they can't stay at 8.

more than anything i just wanna see Aresco and ESPN get mad because the second part of their scheme got ruined.

 

[UConnJim]

I think the Big 12 will go to 12 schools, not 10. AAC is in trouble.

 

[CL82]

ESPN or Fox. You can't have an 8-team basketball conference. It doesn't make sense for scheduling or tournament bids.

I don't see ESPN paying more for product it already owns, unless it can pay less elsewhere (e.g. the eliminating the Big 12 and giving the AAC a marginal rate hike for doing so.) I don't schools leaving the B12 to take less in the American, particularly when there is $150M in exit fees to share. The economics don't seem to work to mutual advantage anywhere so that leaves us with the status quo.

JMO

 

[UConn Dan]

If the Big 12 takes Cincy and BYU only, I don't think the AAC backfills. I think the AAC stays at 10 in football for now.

Not very likley, but maybe the AAC and Big 12 can work out a merger and add BYU. But just so unwieldy at 20 teams in football I don't think it would happen.

 

[ScottVib]

There's just not value in the merger for anyone (except for the AAC who would manage to keep their TV deal stable). The Big XII teams can make more money on a per team basis by sticking together and adding BYU and Cincinnati (or a even going out to 12 schools) than they'd make by joining the AAC.

 

[bendm]

I don't see ESPN paying more for product it already owns, unless it can pay less elsewhere (e.g. the eliminating the Big 12 and giving the AAC a marginal rate hike for doing so.) I don't schools leaving the B12 to take less in the American, particularly when there is $150M in exit fees to share. The economics don't seem to work to mutual advantage anywhere so that leaves us with the status quo.

JMO

there's certainly no reason to expand while theyre getting exit fees, otherwise theyd have to share, but they will have to negotiate a new tv deal at some point after the checks stop coming and 8 schools isnt tenable. bringing the giant fan/alumni bases of UCF and BYU wouldnt hurt. plus i cant believe the conference would go through with the expansion dog and pony again if they werent serious.

 

[CL82]

there's certainly no reason to expand while theyre getting exit fees, otherwise theyd have to share, but they will have to negotiate a new tv deal at some point after the checks stop coming and 8 schools isnt tenable. bringing the giant fan/alumni bases of UCF and BYU wouldnt hurt. plus i cant believe the conference would go through with the expansion dog and pony again if they werent serious.

To make it work, after the exit fees lapse, I think you have to move the best B12 schools to American schools and redo that tv deal and then cut loose the less desirable B12 schools. For the Big 12 schools who move it is the best deal that they can get, for ESPN they are getting better quality content at a cheaper price and for the American schools, it's a windfall. I think that was plan.

UConn is in a rough place. Playing better football will help, but it is tough to see how we end up anywhere other than on the outside.

 

[ASweet3781]

With the Pac-12 staying put and the ACC and B1G putting out statements earlier this week announcing stability, the new P4 is all but official.

Oh Goodie! I was getting worried for a second.

 

[bendm]

To make it work, after the exit fees lapse, I think you have to move the best B12 schools to American schools and redo that tv deal and then cut loose the less desirable B12 schools. For the Big 12 schools who move it is the best deal that they can get, for ESPN they are getting better quality content at a cheaper price and for the American schools, it's a windfall. I think that was plan.

I agree that was the "plan" but it was espn's plan. now bowlsby and the big12 dont want anything to do with them after they tried to destroy their conference (and succeeded). i think they negotiate a new deal with FOX.

i believe the remaining big12 teams are still valued at ~$14 million per team and that's still more than the individual aac teams are getting out of their espn deal. iirc it's around ~9 million each.

i also dont know how the aac can kick out ECSU and tulane et al. the "cleaner" play is adding the best teams from the aac to the big12. all they have to do is pay the exit fee there wouldnt/shouldnt be any litigation.

 

[CL82]

I agree that was the "plan" but it was espn's plan. now bowlsby and the big12 dont want anything to do with them after they tried to destroy their conference (and succeeded). i think they negotiate a new deal with FOX.

i believe the remaining big12 teams are still valued at ~$14 million per team and that's still more than the individual aac teams are getting out of their espn deal. iirc it's around ~9 million each.

i also dont know how the aac can kick out ECSU and tulane et al. the "cleaner" play is adding the best teams from the aac to the big12. all they have to do is pay the exit fee there wouldnt/shouldnt be any litigation.

I guess we’ll see.

 

[shizzle787]

I'm changing this slightly. I still think it's BYU and Cincy only, but I don't think the AAC goes past 10. Therefore, the rest of the FBS stays the same and Gonzaga joins the MW as an Olympic sports member.

 

[SU1968]

To make it work, after the exit fees lapse, I think you have to move the best B12 schools to American schools and redo that tv deal and then cut loose the less desirable B12 schools. For the Big 12 schools who move it is the best deal that they can get, for ESPN they are getting better quality content at a cheaper price and for the American schools, it's a windfall. I think that was plan.

UConn is in a rough place. Playing better football will help, but it is tough to see how we end up anywhere other than on the outside.

CL, I'm curious. Why do you think that the AAC will survive and the B12 collapse? Why not the other way around?

 

[CL82]

CL, I'm curious. Why do you think that the AAC will survive and the B12 collapse? Why not the other way around?

Oh I’m not convinced of that bit I I think that was ESPNs plan so no exit fees would be due. Since the remaining Big 12 had integrity and stuck together rather than jumping at an offer like rats, there B12 may well survive in some form. I wish the former Big East schools showed that level of institutional integrity. But character is a weird thing, you either have it or you don’t.

 

[billybud]

One of the drawbacks for the AAC is their long term (through 2031-32) ESPN deal...

The majority of football games and half of the AAC basketball games go to ESPN+.....behind a streaming channel paywall to pay extra for.

 

[Kolumbo]

Oh I’m not convinced of that bit I I think that was ESPNs plan so no exit fees would be due. Since the remaining Big 12 had integrity and stuck together rather than jumping at an offer like rats, there B12 may well survive in some form. I wish the former Big East schools showed that level of institutional integrity. But character is a weird thing, you either have it or you don’t.

I don't know if I'd call it integrity and character. If the SEC decided to raid the big 12 like the ACC raided the big east, the Kansas and Texas schools would be chasing the cheese like big fat rats.

 

[CL82]

I don't know if I'd call it integrity and character. If the SEC decided to raid the big 12 like the ACC raided the big east, the Kansas and Texas schools would be chasing the cheese like big fat rats.

I guess, but the schools in the big 12 that were approach to leave told their conference mates rather than jumping ship.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I guess, but the schools in the big 12 that were approach to leave told their conference mates rather than jumping ship.

Was it integrity or was it the fact that they were approached by the AAC?

Would they have reported it to the conference if it was the SEC or B1G calling?

 

[CL82]

Was it integrity or was it the fact that they were approached by the AAC?

Would they have reported it to the conference if it was the SEC or B1G calling?

Don’t know, but I’d rather be in a conference where the other schools are honest about being approached.

 

[Kolumbo]

Don’t know, but I’d rather be in a conference where the other schools are honest about being approached.

I agree I guess, but I think it's the situation. They would all jump in an instant if a call came. They had to wait to see if they would be getting calls from the alliance, and if not, would they stay together and poach the AAC, or the opposite.

 

[Exit 4]

I think we need a year or two to pass and then Fox will be ready to bid the B12 medial renewal for the remaining schools and depending on how that goes everything will pivot from there. I dont see a good reason for Fox to bid now - just let the dust settle and then decide. If the B12 remnants get a contract a little over the AAC contract (and they will), there will be no reason to fold in the AAC. Of course, the wild card here would be a new media bidder (outside of ESPN/FOX) and if just two more B12 schools find a way to greener pastures (ahem some sort of surprise move by the P12 to add TX).

In any event, seems like the B12 remnants would be smart to hold together to soak up those juicy B12 exit fees from OK and TX first and FOX would be smart to wait to see the media landscape in 2024/2025 before making a move.

 

[Exit 4]

Hard to believe similar problems don't impact the B1G channel or any of the other specialized channels.

Cord cutting and the fact people under 30 are unwilling to commit to full game viewing is going to have an impact ahead. The calculus is not so easy as it was 15 years ago.

 

[billybud]

The B1G Channel, SEC Channel, and ACC Channel are not RSN's...and as long as they are bundled with Disney channels, are quite different.