The next dominoes (December 15 edition)

[shizzle787]

NIU is the center of the realignment world. That is a remarkable statement.

Their time in the spotlight is coming to a close.

The next moves in realignment I predict will be NIU joining the MW in football and the Horizon in basketball.

And with that we are off...

I believe the next big boom is the Pac-12 finalizing its membership by adding Memphis and Tulane for all sports. The Pac-12 ultimately decides to heavily subsidize the exit fees of the two schools (to the tune of 10 million + each) to get the expansion over the line. Though travel costs will increase for both schools, they both feel that increased ticket revenue offsets the former. The TV is not great but comes in slightly higher than the American. At 9 football schools and 10 basketball schools, the Pac-12 decides to stand pat.

The AAC at this point is down to 12 football members and 11 basketball members. The league makes its move and adds two all-sports members: James Madison and Georgia State.

We will now take a moment to pause from regularly programmed scheduling to announce a new Division 1 member: Morehouse. The MEAC announces its ninth member.

The next move will revolve around the Sun Belt. Down to 12 members, the league adds two to get back to 14: Western Kentucky and Missouri State.

This leaves CUSA with nine members. The league adds one school to get back to 10: Eastern Kentucky.

The ASUN then decides to stand pat at 11.

This leaves Division 1 with 365 schools, 137 FBS schools, and 32 conferences.

 

[Kolumbo]

I appreciate your predictions and I'm always curious to know how accurate you've been. Have you tracked your results?

Memphis and Tulane. I don't see the Pac 12. Yes, the Pac brand is nice and all but is nothing like the old Pac at all. The AAC is a much better fit. I think Memphis and Tulane will stand pat unless they get offers from ACC or Big 12. Doesn't make sense to make a lateral move, if that, and leave a southeastern football conference to join a west coast G conference. I'd say Tulane is a definite no, not a fit in any way. Memphis might be a better fit but it's not worth the effort. Rather play in Florida, Texas, SEC country than the mountain states.

 

[CashewCrew]

I appreciate your predictions and I'm always curious to know how accurate you've been. Have you tracked your results?

Memphis and Tulane. I don't see the Pac 12. Yes, the Pac brand is nice and all but is nothing like the old Pac at all. The AAC is a much better fit. I think Memphis and Tulane will stand pat unless they get offers from ACC or Big 12. Doesn't make sense to make a lateral move, if that, and leave a southeastern football conference to join a west coast G conference. I'd say Tulane is a definite no, not a fit in any way. Memphis might be a better fit but it's not worth the effort. Rather play in Florida, Texas, SEC country than the mountain states.

Have you seen the current AAC? I think both Memphis and Tulane would be better off in the P12

 

[pj]

I saw "the center of the realignment world" and assumed there would be something about a major conference in there, and maybe even something about UConn, but no.

It looks like the center of the realignment world has moved to the periphery.

 

[RuffRuff]

One thing I do wonder about is whether the SEC spiking in it's basketball product this year pushes the envelope on how other conferences (namely Big12) respond. This years version of SEC hoops has had an unpredecented OOC season and now has 5 of the top 7 teams in the AP poll. While football will always be king to that fanbase & economics, they're generally invested in all major sports if successful. I witnessed it first hand at the CWS this year as SEC fans came in droves, inclusive of Peyton Manning & Morgan Wallen. For years their hoops product has been an afterthought and that's changed really fast with it's commitment to elevating hoops. The SEC showing that level of success & investment in hoops might also heighten the desire for other conferences to follow suit.

The Big 12 football product had a fairly limp year with ASU as their sole rep in the playoff and likely one and done getting Texas in their first game. Yormark has looked to get creative by branding the B12 as the top hoops conference, so it makes me wonder if it forces the hand to beef up on the basketball front, even if more of a defensive move. After losing Texas & Oklahoma, the remains of that league really don't have the brand clout to ever keep up with the B10 & SEC, who have 7 of the 12 playoff spots. That's reality. This is likely just a stopover for the buzz of Deion. They'll have a seat at the table, but unlikely to be a regular threat to national titles and a second tier football product.

With the Huskies having a respectable football year along with the steady brand of the hoops program, I wonder if a window opens up soon for Yormark to go back to the table with a more compelling story to not let the SEC take it's teams, own football AND basketball. Make it happen Brett. The BE hoops product is leaking oil this season and honestly not really all that sure it's just a "down year" as much as it is directional if you look at where top recruits are going. The only team making a dent in exciting new recruits in the BE is Uconn. Most of the compelling BE talent this year is also a legion of really old players that will be gone next season. Aside from NIL, I just don't think kids these days care much for the nostalgic intimacy of BE basketball as much as they do about big colorful brands.

 

[Kolumbo]

The SEC could rule college basketball if it wants to and it is certainly making moves. It has the money to do whatever it wants. SEC and Big 10 hold all the cards. The ACC and Big 12 are trying to hang on. They can't compete in football. They have been too stupid to realize they are missing a HUGE basketball opportunity with UConn

The SEC is to the Big 12 and ACC like Sir Larry Wildman is to Gordon Gekko. SEC could break Big 12 and ACC six times over. SEC could invite their flailing programs just to burn the Big 12 and ACC asses.

Yormark and Phillips are looking like a couple of 2-bit pirates with no clue how to save their conferences

 

[Ha Who]

Charlie Brown never learns

 

[Patman]

The SEC could rule college basketball if it wants to and it is certainly making moves. It has the money to do whatever it wants. SEC and Big 10 hold all the cards. The ACC and Big 12 are trying to hang on. They can't compete in football. They have been too stupid to realize they are missing a HUGE basketball opportunity with UConn

The SEC is to the Big 12 and ACC like Sir Larry Wildman is to Gordon Gekko. SEC could break Big 12 and ACC six times over. SEC could invite their flailing programs just to burn the Big 12 and ACC asses.

Yormark and Phillips are looking like a couple of 2-bit pirates with no clue how to save their conferences

The B12 is going to learn slowly that they can't hope to compete in football and that basketball is going to slip out of their hands. This is where Yomark is being smart and the b12 presidents are 15 years in the past.

 

[Kolumbo]

The B12 is going to learn slowly that they can't hope to compete in football and that basketball is going to slip out of their hands. This is where Yomark is being smart and the b12 presidents are 15 years in the past.

Yeah, I incorrectly blamed Yormark while he has been trying his best.

 

[RuffRuff]

Yeah, I incorrectly blamed Yormark while he has been trying his best.

When Texas and OU left the lifeblood of that conferences football aura left. You can poach all you want and swell the league, but it still feels like you’re shopping at a second hand store and becoming a hoarder, not a quality football conference.

That said, invite please .