The New Threat?

[Bald Husky]

Last year, with so many games cancelled, especially interconference games, it was hard to determine exactly which team had the best chance to win the NC. At least 8 teams was the consensus from across the country that had a chance to take it all, but of course, that was obviously wishful thinking by many of the media types. The PAC 12 was seriously in question because they had not 1 OFC game. The SEC was disappointing with Arkansas and Tennessee making early exits in the tourney. In the ACC, NC state proved that they could beat the big boys, but couldn't beat the little guys. Then, of course in the Big 12, as in the recent past, Baylor stood out, although Vic had Texas making some noise.

Much has been made about depth of the 21 recruiting class, with which alot of people think is better than the most recent. SC and UConn took the top 5, but the rest was pretty much evenly distributed across the rest of the country. BUT, what has maybe leveled the playing field ( or court ) is the transfer portal. For the first time, "free agency" was alive in college basketball, and there was upwards of 1000 players entered in the WBB transfer portal. We know that UConn picked up Dorka, but what about the others. Some schools added multiple players, with a couple of the better teams adding 1 or 2. So, my question is, who is the next threat? Which team may have now emerged as a potential contender, or is there a school out there that had never been in the conversation at all, but because of recruiting, coupled with the portal, now is a dark horse to reach the F4. For the past couple of months, UConn, SC, and Stanford was the popular choices to dominate, but is there someone else out there that is ready for prime time, the next team to crack the big time sorority of the elite? Tell me, who is the next threat.

 

[CocoHusky]

I’m not sure there are many among us that were surprised or disappointed by the TN early exit. Keep an eye on NC State because of the addition of Diamond Johnson and Madison Hayes and an incoming Freshman Sophie Hart who I believe has the size and skilled set to be a really special player.

 

[oldude]

Despite the surprising loss to TX in the Sweet 16, I think you have to include MD as one of the favorites to win it all next year. The Terps have everyone coming back from their “high octane” offense that led the nation in scoring this past season. IMO, MD’s Owusu and Miller are both AA caliber players.

 

[UcMiami]

While the 'free agency' is certainly a new phenom in college basketball, I don't think it really changes the balance of power. judicious transfers have had an impact on the game dating back at least to Bobbitt at TN (juco) for their 2007/2008 NCs and I believe some have mentioned a few TN transfers from way back as well that would lead to early PS NCs. ND, SC, and Baylor all rode transfers to NCs recently. And Uconn certainly has had a few recently as well.

MD is probably the only team I can think of that really 'rebuilt' with transfers leading to real contention in this past year - but they are a well established program and their results were their typical average finish. I really don't expect a surprise contender emerging out of nothing - new coaches building programs may get a earlier boost with transfers, but the established programs will continue to pick and choose judiciously to augment their good recruiting classes and developing players.

 

[msf22b]

i firmly believe that the national adoption of "Geno ball" (and that of a few other good coaches)
has led to the leveling, even more than the fine young players who are joining the ranks or the transfers...

Particularly with regard switching defense...many teams are good at it now...and with well initiated players and lots of effort, a team like Arizona becomes difficult to score against.

You don't hear Geno railing against poor coaching these days; certainly not as much as in the past....The lessons have been learned.

 

[LoboDays]

I’m going with Butler

 

[Carnac]

Last year, with so many games cancelled, especially interconference games, it was hard to determine exactly which team had the best chance to win the NC. At least 8 teams was the consensus from across the country that had a chance to take it all, but of course, that was obviously wishful thinking by many of the media types. The PAC 12 was seriously in question because they had not 1 OFC game. The SEC was disappointing with Arkansas and Tennessee making early exits in the tourney. In the ACC, NC state proved that they could beat the big boys, but couldn't beat the little guys. Then, of course in the Big 12, as in the recent past, Baylor stood out, although Vic had Texas making some noise.

Much has been made about depth of the 21 recruiting class, with which a lot of people think is better than the most recent. SC and UConn took the top 5, but the rest was pretty much evenly distributed across the rest of the country. BUT, what has maybe leveled the playing field ( or court ) is the transfer portal. For the first time, "free agency" was alive in college basketball, and there was upwards of 1000 players entered in the WBB transfer portal. We know that UConn picked up Dorka, but what about the others. Some schools added multiple players, with a couple of the better teams adding 1 or 2. So, my question is, who is the next threat? Which team may have now emerged as a potential contender, or is there a school out there that had never been in the conversation at all, but because of recruiting, coupled with the portal, now is a dark horse to reach the F4. For the past couple of months, UConn, SC, and Stanford was the popular choices to dominate, but is there someone else out there that is ready for prime time, the next team to crack the big time sorority of the elite? Tell me, who is the next threat.

The question is: "who is the NEW threat?" I take this to mean teams that ARE NOT regular/consistent top 10 contenders. Hard to postulate this subject this early in the year. Final team rosters have not been formed yet. A team can appear to have all the potential in the world "on paper",
but we need to see them on the floor against better than average to elite competition before we can begin to form an intelligent and informed opinion on their potential. It will take at least 10 games before the contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders. We should know by the holiday break who the front-runners will be the remainder of the season.

I think the next serious threat is not necessarily an unknown, but a program that has been hanging around in the top 15-25 for years, just waiting for the chance to step up to the plate for admission to the sorority (top10), maybe Arizona or LSU. A dark house is always a possibility when that one special player(s) puts a team over the top that no one anticipated. By definition, a dark horse is a little known, unexpectedly successful entrant, or someone who was previously unknown, but suddenly emerges into prominence. One or two more plays in the final game, and Arizona could be the nation champion. That one point loss could have been a one point win.

Texas will be a very tough out this year as Vic Schaefer adds more and more of his own players to his roster. Kim Mulkey and her LSU Tigers will certainly to be looking for a seat at the table in the "upper room" come March. Not sure they will be ready THIS year, but certainly next season. Mulkey will hit the ground running HARD in Baton Rouge as she will attempt to make a "Baylor" type of splash/impact her first year in the SEC. It may take her another year to acquire the personnel to do so. I look for the recruiting trail and the transfer portal to be very good to her next year.

I think she'll schedule her usual "soft" preseason schedule to get her squad up to speed and "jell", then explode into conference play with a bang. She'll encounter a lot more "quality" competition/resistance in the SEC than she did in the BIG 12 where Baylor was the constant elephant in the room, and maintained a "death grip" on conference dominance. No doubt South Carolina and Texas A&M will be eager to welcome her to the conference, and show her exactly what she has to look forward to in the coming years.

 

[Cuango]

I’m not seeing any “new threats”. More like “The Usual Suspects.” I mean, what team this coming season (who was not a threat last year) is a legitimate one this coming season? No one! Texas, NC, Tenn, and Georgia, were already on an upward trajectory, and certainly may become legitimate threats. However, imo they are not there yet. Az has taken a step backward (for this season) with the graduation of McDonald. I think it will be basically the same as last year with the champion emerging once again from UConn, Stanford, SC, Maryland, NC State, Louisville! Obviously, there will (as always) be several “surprise teams” that perform better than expected, but I don’t see another Az surprise coming this season (though to be fair, Az was threatening to break through before the pandemic) I do think Adia Barnes’s program is on the path to becoming a perennial power in the PAC 12. Considering my rapidly failing memory, it is possible I’ve left out a team or two but I would love to bet that next years champion will come from the above mentioned six teams with UConn, Stanford, or SC being the most likely champion. Imo 2023 is when we will see a real shakeup in this list as LSU, Texas, Az, and perhaps North Carolina will make a claim to the top tier. Hopefully, Shea will have her team on the rise as well by then. Finally, I would be remiss not to mention someone who I think is a top five coach in NCAA Women’s Basketball. I believe Carla Berube is so good that she may well make Princeton a legitimate threat. Certainly, imo, if she had replaced Mulkey at Baylor, this conversation would be radically different!

 

[oldhusky]

Not long ago I thought Uconn, Stanford and South Carolina would be on the top tier, separating themselves from the next tier by a significant margin, kind of like the big three two years ago. The extra variable of seniors returning and multiple major transfers has brought the second tier like Maryland, NC State, Louisville etc much closer. Many teams will be better next year because they have 4+ years of talent on the roster because of the extra year of eligibility. At least for next year, with no seniors this season, that change didn't help us at all and enhanced the prospect of many contenders.

 

[MooseJaw]

The question is: "who is the NEW threat?" I take this to mean teams that ARE NOT regular/consistent top 10 contenders. I think the next serious threat is not an an unknown. It's a program that has been hanging around with the elites for years, just waiting for the chance to step up to the plate for admission to the sorority, maybe Arizona or LSU. One or two more plays in the final game, and Arizona could be the nation champion. That one point loss could have been a one point win.

Texas will be a very tough out this year as Vic Schaefer adds more and more of his own players to his roster. Kim Mulkey and her LSU Tigers will certainly to be looking for a seat at the table in the "upper room" come March. Not sure they will be ready THIS year, but certainly next season. Mulkey will hit the ground running HARD in Baton Rouge as she will attempt to make a "Baylor" type of splash/impact her first year in the SEC. It may take her another year to acquire the personnel to do so. I look for the recruiting trail and the transfer portal to be very good to her next year.

I think she'll schedule her usual "soft" preseason schedule to get her squad up to speed and "jell", then explode into conference play with a bang. She'll encounter a lot more "quality" competition/resistance in the SEC than she did in the BIG 12 where Baylor was the constant elephant in the room, and maintained conference dominance. No doubt South Carolina and Texas A&M will be eager to "welcome" her to the conference.

While Az surprised us last season, it was mainly because of the virus and location. Because they are out west with limited coverage in the east and limited games most of us really did not follow their team or progress. That being said, I believe they were the perfect storm in WCBB last year. While they should be a good team this coming season it's very hard to think they will have the same post season success in 2021-2022.
I agree with Carnac there are a few maybes in the mid upper tier that could be a factor, but not likely. However that's the beauty of of Bald Huskies question, we don't know at this point, I look forward hoping that there is one dark horse that emerges keeping the known power houses on their toes.

 

[nwhoopfan]

JMO, but Arizona definitely would've been a Sweet 16, maybe even Elite 8 team if there was a Tourney in '20. Appearing to come out of nowhere is certainly somewhat because of the cancelled post season the year before.

 

[Carnac]

JMO, but Arizona definitely would've been a Sweet 16, maybe even Elite 8 team if there was a Tourney in '20. Appearing to come out of nowhere is certainly somewhat because of the cancelled post season the year before.

Arizona is on the map now, and a desirable destination for elite players to consider when choosing a program. They can now compete for the same recruits as UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Duke, LSU, Louisville Maryland and Notre Dame, etc.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Arizona is on the map now, and a desirable destination for elite players to consider when choosing a program. They can now compete for the same recruits as UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Duke, LSU, Louisville Maryland and Notre Dame, etc.

Doing quite well in the recruiting, I read. Arizona will certainly be good next year, it would be unrealistic to expect such a deep run as this last year. But they should be on their way to becoming a regular participant in the NCAA tourney and regular residence in the top 25.

Interesting to see what the effect of playing a tougher out of conference schedule will be - a recent article indicated that, in addition to playing Rutgers, DePaul and Vanderbilt in the destination tourney Adia indicated that the schedule has been upgraded but she still can't get folks to come out to Tucson and so she may sign up for another in-season 2 or 3 game tourney. Plus the PAC will be playing 20 games next season.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

The PAC 12 was seriously in question because they had not 1 OFC game.

That is not true (in Women's Basketball). They were severely limited and you could arguably say that no one played a decent out-of-conference game, primarily due to travel restrictions. Arizona played 2 Big Sky opponents. Tara got her milestone win at Pacific, which game was carried by ESPN.

 

[wolfe613]

if talking this season then it's Maryland cause of experience, also would like to honorable mention Louisville and possibly Nc st. A team that maybe is being slept on is Oregon, 2 of their players I believe are expected to be in this year's draft, as ppl found out they still sleeping on the Pac 12

 

[Drew8]

Teams with great offences and bad defenses typically are capable of upsets. The challenge is consistent
Winning.