The Narrow, Nearly Impossible Playoff Path For The AAC

[Drew]

"If you become the conference champion in the American conference and you win those games," UConn's Bob Diaco said, "I don't know how you're not going to be a part of that group of four, I really don't."

The highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl, which Houston earned last year, when they beat Florida State 38-24 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. If the Cougars can beat the Sooners in Week 1, they should immediately be taken seriously in the CFP race.

"If they went undefeated and win those games," Aresco said, "I don't know how you keep them out."

Maybe you don't.

It's going to take perfection, though, to find out.


Can the AAC get a team into the playoff?

 

[Afroabe224]

"If you become the conference champion in the American conference and you win those games," UConn's Bob Diaco said, "I don't know how you're not going to be a part of that group of four, I really don't."

The highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl, which Houston earned last year, when they beat Florida State 38-24 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. If the Cougars can beat the Sooners in Week 1, they should immediately be taken seriously in the CFP race.

"If they went undefeated and win those games," Aresco said, "I don't know how you keep them out."

Maybe you don't.

It's going to take perfection, though, to find out.


Can the AAC get a team into the playoff?

Imagine the UConn dream season [below]... where would we be ranked? Top 15, maybe? I literally don't think it is possible to crack the top 4 with the G5 bias (with the possible exception of Houston, Boise and any other hyped "flavor of the year").

• UConn goes 13-0 convincingly
• Houston (ranked) goes 11-2 (both losses to UConn)
• BC (11-1) vs Virginia (11-1) for the ACC title game (both losses to UConn)
• Other AAC teams win their big non-conference games, 4+ in the top 25

Even in this dream scenario, no way they let an AAC/UConn team in the playoff over a 11-2/10-3 Bama/Michigan/Oregon/ect..

 

[uconnphil2016]

Imagine the UConn dream season [below]... where would we be ranked? Top 15, maybe? I literally don't think it is possible to crack the top 4 with the G5 bias (with the possible exception of Houston, Boise and any other hyped "flavor of the year").

• UConn goes 13-0 convincingly
• Houston (ranked) goes 11-2 (both losses to UConn)
• BC (11-1) vs Virginia (11-1) for the ACC title game (both losses to UConn)
• Other AAC teams win their big non-conference games, 4+ in the top 25

Even in this dream scenario, no way they let an AAC/UConn team in the playoff over a 11-2/10-3 Bama/Michigan/Oregon/ect..

A 13-0 Houston will get in. Tough OOC against Oklahoma. A win there is huge, and UH is already a preseason fringe top 10 on most polls

 

[jho]

Imagine the UConn dream season [below]... where would we be ranked? Top 15, maybe? I literally don't think it is possible to crack the top 4 with the G5 bias (with the possible exception of Houston, Boise and any other hyped "flavor of the year").

• UConn goes 13-0 convincingly
• Houston (ranked) goes 11-2 (both losses to UConn)
• BC (11-1) vs Virginia (11-1) for the ACC title game (both losses to UConn)
• Other AAC teams win their big non-conference games, 4+ in the top 25

Even in this dream scenario, no way they let an AAC/UConn team in the playoff over a 11-2/10-3 Bama/Michigan/Oregon/ect..

Are you kidding me? No way BCU goes 11-1.

 

[weyuo]

The whole conference has to step up their out of conference schedule(and win) in order for any one of them to run the table and be considered a top 4 team. You also have the P-5 itself working to ensure those four slots are P-5 only and the sword they carry wields considerable power.

 

[PAGS]

XM College sports radio was talking about how Houston could make a run if they go undefeated. Houston would need to to beat Oklahoma who would need to beat Ohio State. If Oklahoma and Ohio St are one loss teams it would give Houston a good shot at the Playoff. Now dream UConn beating an undefeated Houston.....and ya never know!?!?!?

One can dream.....

 

[JMick]

You have to have a really good season the year before, and then you have to have a tremendous season.

We'd basically need to win 10 games this year, and then go undefeated next year hoping a few teams are ranked or by winning 50-10 every week.

 

[Woof 101]

No slander Drew but at this stage of the game....this is a post about nothing. Your words not mine but factual on this topic...

 

[Nostical]

Forget Houston being in the Playoff discussion. Oklahoma will blow them out and they'll be forgotten. When Houston beat a cocky Fl St it sent a message. Don't take the Cougars lightly. Oklahoma will be ready and focused. Whatever the line is--take OU and smile.

 

[Confident Carl]

Forget Houston being in the Playoff discussion. Oklahoma will blow them out and they'll be forgotten. When Houston beat a cocky Fl St it sent a message. Don't take the Cougars lightly. Oklahoma will be ready and focused. Whatever the line is--take OU and smile.

Saw one Oddsmaker with Houston +11. A Big 12 invite by game time should add to the intensity. I agree this is a tough opener for Houston but Greg Ward is a game changer.

 

[J187Money]

Are you kidding me? No way BCU goes 11-1.

Maybe in practice against their own guys.

 

[Husky68]

Imagine the UConn dream season [below]... where would we be ranked? Top 15, maybe? I literally don't think it is possible to crack the top 4 with the G5 bias (with the possible exception of Houston, Boise and any other hyped "flavor of the year").

• UConn goes 13-0 convincingly
• Houston (ranked) goes 11-2 (both losses to UConn)
• BC (11-1) vs Virginia (11-1) for the ACC title game (both losses to UConn)
• Other AAC teams win their big non-conference games, 4+ in the top 25

Even in this dream scenario, no way they let an AAC/UConn team in the playoff over a 11-2/10-3 Bama/Michigan/Oregon/ect..

In that scenario have BC beat Clemson and FSU, Virginia beat Oregon and NC - plus usual ACC teams plus Houston beating Oklahoma - gets UConn in at 13-0. At 11-1 both BC and Virginia are top 10 (last year any pre bowl one loss P5 team was 10th in polls or higher). UConn with wins over BC and Virginia in top 10 will be more top 10 wins than all if not almost any P5 team. One such win could be considered a fluke, but 2 plus going undefeated, beating a revenge Houston team at home after they beat Oklahoma - hard to discount.
Think I'll wait to worry about this occurring until BCU wins its 1st ACC game in over a year.

 

[RedStickHusky]

• UConn goes 13-0 convincingly
• Houston (ranked) goes 11-2 (both losses to UConn)
• BC (11-1) vs Virginia (11-1) for the ACC title game (both losses to UConn)
• Other AAC teams win their big non-conference games, 4+ in the top 25

...

That would be a pretty fun season. Key for ranking is the 4th bullet. If the AAC has four teams ranked it'll push the top team further up the list.

 

[TheDoggPound]

We should be rooting for every AAC team to lose their OOC games. Imagine if Houston does beat Oklahoma.. Big 12 would probably extend them an invite right then and there.

 

[Drew]

I'm sure this will go over real well:

West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen is certainly on the side of picking the four best teams.

Holgorsen said an undefeated team from a Group of 5 conference (the American, Mountain West, Conference USA, MAC or Sun Belt) wouldn't have the same success against a Power 5 league schedule.

"If they played our schedule, that 12-0 record would be 7-5 and vice versa," said Holgorsen. "I think strength of schedule is incredibly important. If you say that's not fair to the non-Power 5, then I'd say well then tell that non-Power 5 to do specific things to be in the Power 5. Because each and every one of them would jump at that opportunity in a heartbeat. It's not our fault being in the Power 5 they're not, and they may have a really good football team, but I'm sorry, you don't play the schedule that we play, and I don't think you would be undefeated if you played our schedule. If it hurts their feelings, well, I'm sorry."

The ultimate College Football Playoff debate: best vs. most deserving