The Hidden Value

[ZooCougar]

This looks bleak. But it really is an opportunity. I really feel that one of the two courses of action I am going propose is the right path. Both are better than "staying the course".

Can UConn and Cincy parlay their status as full members to vote the dissolution of the conference? There could be something to that. Killing the Old Girl would do a great many parties a favor.

-It could result in Rutgers, Louisville and Notre Dame moving to the B1G and ACC earlier.

-It could free up MSG to the ACC or even the B1G as a venue for the conference championship.

-It could lead to a fair division of credits as everyone goes there seperate ways.

Cincy and UConn could broker a deal. We'll vote for this, contingent on a soft landing. UConn to B1G, Cincy to the ACC or both whatever...

Second plan.

Blank sheet baby. Why are we investing time and energy in this failed business model?

Do you think that this madness stops when the Catholic 7 depart? What's the next shoe to drop? Boise, SDSU, Houston, and SMU find a better landing spot? It will happen guys. IT WILL HAPPEN.

We have to take matters into our own hands. UConn, Cincy and USF are not going to a Big 5 conference. The three of us need to make a decision that constructs a conference that would exist starting in 2014 that is actually attainable, economical and stable. Pick 5-7 more schools and make a new conference. Maybe it is football only, maybe if we are certain that we are on the outside the 7 will be more comfortable taking UConn and Cincy as basketball partners.

 

[Pudge]

WE can do something. (and be Hamas)

Look at that Hoop schedule & think. If you weren't going to the game Monday or Friday ... reschedule your life. Let's get behind Ollie. Let's start a fire.

 

[ZooCougar]

WE can do something. (and be Hamas)

Look at that Hoop schedule & think. If you weren't going to the game Monday or Friday ... reschedule your life. Let's get behind Ollie. Let's start a fire.

Yup.

I am just incredulous at the decisions of this leadership. More body blows are coming. There are no TV negotiations currently ongoing. I think they are trying to project an image of calmness and rationality. But I just think they are missing the boat if their words really do speak to their true actions and thinking behind the scenes.

When Miami and Company left we said "At least we have the BCS Bid and Louisville is coming, and we have basketball".

When SyraPitt Left: "At least we still think that we have the BCS Bid, and basketball is still pretty damn good! and MSG Too!"

When Rutgers and Louisville and The Hoop schools left. "Well at least we have the BCS Bid for ONE MORE YEAR, Memphis, UConn, Cincy and Temple play good basketball and besides, BOISE IS COMING!"

.......

And When Boise, SDSU, Navy decide to say no thanks, and they will. What will we have left to say?

Start securing 2014 NOW. You want to project an image of strength? Take some action. Stop being blown around like a feather in the wind.

That's the future that we will have to deal with eventually. So let's go ahead and leave, leave with USF and Cincy who like us are committed to bettering themselves. We can count on eachother to pull the weight AND LEAVE and not be surprised by it.

Chances are USF, UConn and Cincy are on the outside looking in. Plan for the worst case. In 10-15 years, if this business ever comes to its senses maybe we get where we need to be.

Susan Herbst?: Staying in the Big East isn't playing the long game. You're losing the Long War.

 

[amory]

How do you expect UConn, Cincinnati, and USF to work together to accomplish anything when any one of them would gladly stab the other two in the back the instant another conference comes along? There's no trust. It only works for the basketball schools because they're not going to be invited anywhere else as individuals, so they can band together.

 

[ZooCougar]

How do you expect UConn, Cincinnati, and USF to work together to accomplish anything when any one of them would gladly stab the other two in the back the instant another conference comes along? There's no trust. It only works for the basketball schools because they're not going to be invited anywhere else as individuals, so they can band together.

Because UConn, Cincy and USF aren't going anywhere, probably for many, many years.

Wipe the fantasies and theories from your brain. They are all bullshit. We have to make a play with the vote if that actually is a play to be made or take more active measures to secure some kind of future.

Time to stop monitoring the landscape. Time to start landscaping.

 

[jbdphi]

Zoo, I could be wrong but I still don't see Boise, SDSU, SMU or Houston bailing on the new league right now. For certain the Mountain West has a contract that is locked in for many more years that pays them absolutely nothing (I think $1 million a year at most) so even our mess of a conference with a new TV contract to be negotiated would be an upgrade. Not sure about Conference USA but realistically, both SDSU and Boise and to a lesser extent SMU and Houston along with UConn, Cincy and USF really to consist of the "Best of the Rest" in terms of programs / investment / potential.

And I know this will get laughed out of the room by most, but look at Memphis football's results this year and you'll see a team that has definitely improved in just the one year that they had their new coach (Fuentes?). If he keeps it up, they may not be such a patsy. I could definitely see them "investing" in their football program like Louisville did. As for Temple, Tulane and ECU, well somebody needs to finish in the bottom quartile, right?

All in, that football league would still generate a multiple of the dollars that the MWC or CUSA or MAC get right now. Basketball becomes the real question mark right now.

 

[ZooCougar]

You are thinking in the present tense too much. The new conference unfortunately would have to involve Memphis anyways.

The MWC is not stupid. They could probably get those schools back and get an increase.

Also, I think you are grossly oveestimating how much football TV money the New Nuevo Big East is going to get.

A million dollars a year is a million dollars more than what the Big East has in the future. Right now there is no future contract. We do not even know which schools will be in the conference because nobody can believe anything.

Let's say we 2 Million a year for football with Boise. Is that really worth it with all of the far flung games we will be playing? I don't think so. At some point the juice stops being worth the squeeze.

The other shoe will drop. Let's be the other shoe for once. And stop taking body blows.

Zoo, I could be wrong but I still don't see Boise, SDSU, SMU or Houston bailing on the new league right now. For certain the Mountain West has a contract that is locked in for many more years that pays them absolutely nothing (I think $1 million a year at most) so even our mess of a conference with a new TV contract to be negotiated would be an upgrade. Not sure about Conference USA but realistically, both SDSU and Boise and to a lesser extent SMU and Houston along with UConn, Cincy and USF really to consist of the "Best of the Rest" in terms of programs / investment / potential.

And I know this will get laughed out of the room by most, but look at Memphis football's results this year and you'll see a team that has definitely improved in just the one year that they had their new coach (Fuentes?). If he keeps it up, they may not be such a patsy. I could definitely see them "investing" in their football program like Louisville did. As for Temple, Tulane and ECU, well somebody needs to finish in the bottom quartile, right?

All in, that football league would still generate a multiple of the dollars that the MWC or CUSA or MAC get right now. Basketball becomes the real question mark right now.

 

[amory]

Because UConn, Cincy and USF aren't going anywhere, probably for many, many years.

Wipe the fantasies and theories from your brain. They are all bull****. We have to make a play with the vote if that actually is a play to be made or take more active measures to secure some kind of future.

Time to stop monitoring the landscape. Time to start landscaping.

Well for starters, I disagree with that statement. I think there's a very high degree of probability that one or more of those three schools will be involved the next time everything shifts.

But whether or not that's true, it's irrelevant. The possibility of jumping to a viable conference still exists, so trust and cooperation are impossible.

 

[ZooCougar]

Well for starters, I disagree with that statement. I think there's a very high degree of probability that one or more of those three schools will be involved the next time everything shifts.

But whether or not that's true, it's irrelevant. The possibility of jumping to a viable conference still exists, so trust and cooperation are impossible.

It's very unlikely. I don't believe that there is some sort of hidden B1G offer. I do believe that the ACC will be held together. ESPN will not let that investment disintegrate.

Look at the way realignment has progressed. The big fish moved first and now they are consolidating with little fish like Rutgers and Maryland. Once the bubble is exposed these big conferences will realize that they have reached the point of diminishing returns and then some.

We have to assume the worst case. And when you do that, you see that sticking with our current construct is a loser.

Why be in 14 team conference with a $50 Million contract when we can make a new more exclusive conference that gives us between $40-50 Million with reduced travel expenses and more opportunities for our fans to actually attend away games?

Time to wake up.

 

[jbdphi]

You are thinking in the present tense too much. The new conference unfortunately would have to involve Memphis anyways.

The MWC is not stupid. They could probably get those schools back and get an increase.

Also, I think you are grossly oveestimating how much football TV money the New Nuevo Big East is going to get.

A million dollars a year is a million dollars more than what the Big East has in the future. Right now there is no future contract. We do not even know which schools will be in the conference because nobody can believe anything.

Let's say we 2 Million a year for football with Boise. Is that really worth it with all of the far flung games we will be playing? I don't think so. At some point the juice stops being worth the squeeze.

The other shoe will drop. Let's be the other shoe for once. And stop taking body blows.

Just thinking practically. The MWC can't just reopen their existing deal and ask for more money. Won't happen. The only advantage the NNBE has right now is that it is an open slate in terms of media at a time when media rights are still worth exponentially more than they were just five or 10 years ago.

Even the current media speculation had the NNBE deal at $60 to $80 million prior to the C7 leaving. With then leaving, it was supposed to impact the new deal by 15-20%. That is still a couple of million (not just $2 million) per remaining program which is, once again, better than anything outside of the top 5.

What you're talking about is mostly this anyways. Who would you pick, along with Cincy and USF in your new conference that is actually available and more interesting than BSU, SDSU, SMU and Houston? UMass? As it is, the Big East will be like a new conference in that it has an open media rights window but the benefit of whatever departure fees it can secure via the courts or an out of court settlement. That figure could be as much as $50 million or more (I don't know what the Bball only departure fee is) which is not peanuts. Dissolving and trusting Cincy and USF to stick with us would be madness in my opinion.

 

[ZooCougar]

Just thinking practically. The MWC can't just reopen their existing deal and ask for more money. Won't happen. The only advantage the NNBE has right now is that it is an open slate in terms of media at a time when media rights are still worth exponentially more than they were just five or 10 years ago.

Why do you say that? I don't think the Big East has any kind of advantage as long as the membership cannot be defined or guaranteed. Look at it this way. Without a TV deal, this conference effectively has an expiration date.

Even the current media speculation had the NNBE deal at $60 to $80 million prior to the C7 leaving. With then leaving, it was supposed to impact the new deal by 15-20%. That is still a couple of million (not just $2 million) per remaining program which is, once again, better than anything outside of the top 5.

It's probably down to 50 Million at best. And it may not be that much, because the uncertainty will drive the value down. If we can leave, make a more exclusive construct on the assumption that three schools that matter are not going anywhere, (Let's face it we aren't) then we can get the same crappy money but it will be divided less ways. And we don't have the travel costs.


What you're talking about is mostly this anyways. Who would you pick, along with Cincy and USF in your new conference that is actually available and more interesting than BSU, SDSU, SMU and Houston? UMass? As it is, the Big East will be like a new conference in that it has an open media rights window but the benefit of whatever departure fees it can secure via the courts or an out of court settlement. That figure could be as much as $50 million or more (I don't know what the Bball only departure fee is) which is not peanuts. Dissolving and trusting Cincy and USF to stick with us would be madness in my opinion.

The trust isn't important, everyone knows what the desires are. The insiders know that it's probably not gonna happen.
Madness is the Big East. We keep thinking that this thing will stabilize. This is not over.

 

[jbdphi]

Agree to disagree I guess. I don't see how you can say that the Big East will not stabilize yet the Top 5 won't be changing anytime soon and none of UConn, Cincy or USF will be getting an invite?

A best of the rest conference is our only option right now. The Big East was already becoming that regardless plus it has the benefit of the exit fees to be collected. Call it The Big East or whatever you want to call a new conference with as yet unidentified members is moot. It's all the same thing except maybe you get to ditch Tulane.

Doing something for the sake of doing something isn't a plan. I see no benefit to dissolving the league and trying to start fresh.

 

[ZooCougar]

Agree to disagree I guess. I don't see how you can say that the Big East will not stabilize yet the Top 5 won't be changing anytime soon and none of UConn, Cincy or USF will be getting an invite?

A best of the rest conference is our only option right now. The Big East was already becoming that regardless plus it has the benefit of the exit fees to be collected. Call it The Big East or whatever you want to call a new conference with as yet unidentified members is moot. It's all the same thing except maybe you get to ditch Tulane.

Doing something for the sake of doing something isn't a plan. I see no benefit to dissolving the league and trying to start fresh.

Oh it will stabilize. But I just think we can make a conference better than what will be "left over".

If we have to be with bad, then let's go with a bad that's closer. Let's be a little more exclusive. Do we really need a conference championship game? Nobody goes to these games.

 

[jbdphi]

Oh it will stabilize. But I just think we can make a conference better than what will be "left over".

If we have to be with bad, then let's go with a bad that's closer. Let's be a little more exclusive. Do we really need a conference championship game? Nobody goes to these games.

I'm trying to think of who is closer that would be no worse than BSU, SDSU, SMU and Houston and I'm struggling.
- UMass really stinks right now - they have potential but to pretend like they're anything better than one of the 5 worst football teams in FBS is deceiving yourself.
- Buffalo? Isn't that the team that all of our fans complain about playing over and over again? That plus they suck even worse than we do.
- Temple? Already in the NNBE.
- Navy? Already in the NNBE.
- Memphis? Already in the NNBE.
- Marshall? Hold your nose and I suppose they might do?
- East Carolina? Already in the NNBE.
- Ohio U? Starting to get away from the east coast but they're not the crappiest program in the world as long as they have Solich so they're a possible I guess.
- UCF? Already in the NNBE.
- FAU? FIU? Not much closer to UConn than Texas is really and the programs are vastly inferior to SMU / Houston.

Unless we are talking about dipping into FCS with names like Stony Brook, James Madison, etc. I just don't see who you are thinking about. You need to have at least eight and much more preferably 10 members. UConn, Cincy, USF are three. Who else? UCF, Temple, Navy and Memphis gets us to 7 and those are all NNBE members. Who would the other three be? I still think SDSU, BSU, SMU and Houston are better than the alternatives which I see as UMass, Marshall, Ohio or Buffalo.

 

[ZooCougar]

I'm trying to think of who is closer that would be no worse than BSU, SDSU, SMU and Houston and I'm struggling.
- UMass really stinks right now - they have potential but to pretend like they're anything better than one of the 5 worst football teams in FBS is deceiving yourself.
- Buffalo? Isn't that the team that all of our fans complain about playing over and over again? That plus they suck even worse than we do.
- Temple? Already in the NNBE.
- Navy? Already in the NNBE.
- Memphis? Already in the NNBE.
- Marshall? Hold your nose and I suppose they might do?
- East Carolina? Already in the NNBE.
- Ohio U? Starting to get away from the east coast but they're not the crappiest program in the world as long as they have Solich so they're a possible I guess.
- UCF? Already in the NNBE.
- FAU? FIU? Not much closer to UConn than Texas is really and the programs are vastly inferior to SMU / Houston.

Unless we are talking about dipping into FCS with names like Stony Brook, James Madison, etc. I just don't see who you are thinking about. You need to have at least eight and much more preferably 10 members. UConn, Cincy, USF are three. Who else? UCF, Temple, Navy and Memphis gets us to 7 and those are all NNBE members. Who would the other three be? I still think SDSU, BSU, SMU and Houston are better than the alternatives which I see as UMass, Marshall, Ohio or Buffalo.

Again, I assume Boise and SDSU are gone. You ought to as well. You're just setting yourself up for further letdowns. The situation will keep changing, it will keep getting worse for the Big East. At what point does it become more value added to dissolve it, take the money and make something that meets our needs better?

We're about to find out.

There have been at least three threads here lately proposing the layout of this thing. It doesn't go that far west. And it doesn't dip into the Sun Belt Conference.

SMU and Houston. Those are possibles. Buffalo and UMass are the worst I would consider. And I think the only reason you make a conference bigger than 10 is to add value through a larger inventory.

 

[Danzz]

At some point the movement and instability will be over and fans will adjust to the new conference. One of the keys for Uconn will be to upgrade our out of conference schedule and possibly include some of the former BE teams. Playing cupcakes early made sense when Uconn had a tough BE schedule and national TV audiences in their near future. A normal schedule for us before the BE games would be: 1) go to a tournament in some sunny place, 2)play one major team on national TV, 3) play some cupcakes for easy wins 4) BE games. Well we don't have the BE teams any longer so it is time to upgrade our out of conference schedule as best we can.
There really aren't a lot of options if we want to remain relevant.

 

[tzznandrew]

There is no way that the conferences are sitting on 14 for that long. Maybe a year or two. Probably until this whole Maryland thing gets settled. But you're going to see the SEC and B1G move. And, frankly, the ACC has been ahead of the game on expansion at every step since 2003. I wouldn't be surprised if they swooped in and picked up Cincy and UConn.

We're not going to be waiting too long. We may never really have to play in this league.

 

[Marty Jackson]

You are thinking in the present tense too much. The new conference unfortunately would have to involve Memphis anyways.

The MWC is not stupid. They could probably get those schools back and get an increase.

Also, I think you are grossly oveestimating how much football TV money the New Nuevo Big East is going to get.

A million dollars a year is a million dollars more than what the Big East has in the future. Right now there is no future contract. We do not even know which schools will be in the conference because nobody can believe anything.

Let's say we 2 Million a year for football with Boise. Is that really worth it with all of the far flung games we will be playing? I don't think so. At some point the juice stops being worth the squeeze.

The other shoe will drop. Let's be the other shoe for once. And stop taking body blows.

you think $2M a year for the Big East FB? The lowest I saw was $60M. Even the BB schools could get $1-2M.
Whatever the TV figures are, it's more than the MWC.

 

[tzznandrew]

you think $2M a year for the Big East FB? The lowest I saw was $60M. Even the BB schools could get $1-2M.
Whatever the TV figures are, it's more than the MWC.

It's going to be more than the MWV by a decent amount, too. Maybe $5-8M per school. Not great, but not as bad as the MWC.

 

[RS9999X]

If you go by the recent figures which dropped to $50 million after Louisville and dropped another 15% with the Basketball exodus you get $42 million for 12 teams. Go by the highest figure out there and you have $5 million per team in a 12-team all sports alignment or as low as $3.5 mil per team.

Let's look at these beauties for basketball. I wonder what MSG will pay for these guys? Nada you say? MSG will be interested in the semi-finals when the smoke clears? NO? Not even the semi-finals?

ECU
UCF
USF
SMU
Houston
Boise
Tulane

The PAC-12 was getting something like $58 million a year before the new round of contracts

 

[RS9999X]

Video killed the Radio Star ....

Wait until Aresco drops the bomb .......

 

[upstater]

The only thing I like about your plan is the smaller conference. I don't know why Aresco did what he did, but the new conference needs to be a max of 10 teams. Otherwise, there's a 50/50 chance a team leaves the ACC in the next 5 years. UConn should plan for the optimal scenario, and not settle for a life of glorified A10. I realize that you're advocating something quite different, but the future should not start with UConn and Cincy leaving tens of millions in exit fees and tens of millions of NCAA credits on the table. The school will need that money in the next 5 years.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

There is no way that the conferences are sitting on 14 for that long. Maybe a year or two. Probably until this whole Maryland thing gets settled. But you're going to see the SEC and B1G move. And, frankly, the ACC has been ahead of the game on expansion at every step since 2003. I wouldn't be surprised if they swooped in and picked up Cincy and UConn.

We're not going to be waiting too long. We may never really have to play in this league.

Except for the fact that we're headed to the B1G, this makes a lot of sense.

 

[tzznandrew]

Except for the fact that we're headed to the B1G, this makes a lot of sense.

I hope you are right. I think you are wrong, but if you are right, there would be few happier than me.

 

[UConnDan97]

Not only should the league still expect to land a contract that pays them somewhere in the 3 to 6 million dollar range per team (which means Boise and SDSU aren't going anywhere), but let's not forget about those pesky "NCAA credits" for basketball for the last six years and the exit fee money! I still have to work it all out (so does the Big East, apparently), but:

1) I've seen it reported somewhere that the Big East is due something like 120 million or more from the 6-year rolling credit payments (which means they are coming for another 6 years to us). It's not clear what dissolving the league would do, but I believe that by doing so, the money would get distributed to all teams. Keeping the league means we divide it up with the remaining 14 teams, if I'm not mistaken (even though the C-7 keeps the auto bid). That would be worth almost triple the tv contract alone!

2) We are still due the exit fee money from many teams (Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, TCU, Louisville, Rutty, and now perhaps even "basketballx7"). Even if the basketball schools are not held to the same monetary buyout, which I'm not sure why they wouldn't be, the football departures alone are an additional 30 million dollars to be split up for the 14 teams (2.1 million each, one-time payment).

Assuming they are going to receive the credit payments at the very least, if not a portion of the exit fees, Boise and SDSU would be walking away from a yearly payout over the next six years of approximately 8 to 10 million a year in order to go back to a MW offering 1 million a year. That's why I don't think they're leaving. If the Big East locks up Fresno, further killing off the MW (I hate to be "that guy", but...), then it is almost a certainty that this league would continue to be viable, even if it would clearly be far, far away from the "Big 5 Conferences"...

EDIT: The exit fee one-time payout should be higher than 2.1 million, since SyraPitt negotiated a 7.5 mil buyout, and the WVU buyout is 20 million. Therefore, just on football exits alone, the one-time payment should be around 3.5 million.