the Future of Conference ...

[Pudge]

Math

1.0
As illustrated in UMASS AD Ryan Bamberg's recent comments ... Independent status is enhanced as there are now 7. The numbers are such that you have far more flexibility than when there were 4. In fact, he went on to say that the American Athletic Conference (where his fan base got all excited about a possible invite this summer) was not all that attractive because to the newly executed rights contract and UConn leaving. With UConn & Temple, he thought it was a good fit. Not without.

We all know FCS is a loser Profit & Loss. It just is. They certainly try to live with far less expenses for a full football program (with 65 scholarships & 65 women scholarships to balance) ... but they have scant opportunities of FBS to gain bigger revenue sources. Bamberg hinted that he expected that there were a few more Universities that may become Independent. Why? Because UConn & UMass ... Liberty ... were succeeding in scheduling.

Now they have to win. Excluding ND, BYU, Army ... UConn, UMass & NM State are 1-18. Someone will figure out how to win.

Then. UConn scheduling, quite frankly, is better than UMass; we actually can do Home & Home with P5 and they haven't. We won't have a robust experience. But we are more like BYU than UMass.

2.0
If you have 10-12 Independents, a lot of things just get easier.

The Group of 5 versus Power 5 Gap in funding and resource spending is widening quickly. Just go look at the Football Staff of Rutgers versus ours. Or Mississippi State. In a decade's time, this is going to be stark. I don't think it will result in any more greater winning percentage P5 to G5. It just is going to look more like the English Premier League v Championship level ... with 5 or 6 major SUPERPOWERs. The Pacific 12 and B12 are not going to keep up. It will lead to tension.

There will be conference realignment possible in 2024; who knows what that means. I believe some Outliers ... USC or Ohio State or Texas or Alabama or Clemson will cheat and try to gain even more separation from the 60 other Power 5

 

[ZooCougar]

If there gets to be 10-12 viable indys then maybe the Big East will sponsor football again and they will want to join.

What could go wrong?

 

[Orioles]

All of the NBE members abandoned the conference BECAUSE they did not want a Football affiliation, and they absorbed new members who shared that sentiment.

 

[Redding Husky]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

 

[gioff2323]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

Not sure. CFB already is the minor league for the NFL. Always has been. What’s benefit to the league of having a smaller farm system? What’s benefit to ESPN of having small inventory to promote.

 

[freescooter]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

I kind of agree with that. At one point during the earlier round of realignment there was a trial balloon of creating a league with FSU Miami Alabama ND Texas USC Michigan Ohio State Penn State and a few others. Obviously if you did it today you’d want Clemson maybe not USC and/or Miami. But the concept was maybe 16 teams who would play only each other. I think that is still possible that something like that emerges. If you are Alabama why do you want to carry Vanderbilt? You are Texas do you really want to go to Iowa City and, ugh, Kansas every year? Clemson wants to carry the ACC why exactly?

 

[freescooter]

Not sure. CFB already is the minor league for the NFL. Always has been. What’s benefit to the league of having a smaller farm system? What’s benefit to ESPN of having small inventory to promote.

I agree but for a different reason. I think if you have a minor league it will eventually become viewed as a minor league. College sports have managed to straddle the line between that and attracting student and old grads and kids of old grads. It is gradually losing that however.

 

[storrsroars]

The MBA wife and I were talking about this last night. If UConn makes the finances work - even just cutting losses to minimum while still not showing profit - their example is going to be compelling to a number of G5s and maybe even weak sisters of P5 who see writing on the wall.

The wife basically asserts that there are only two conferences: 1) SEC, 2) B1G, and #2 by a wide margin. Other than Clemson and sometimes Oklahoma, everybody else is more or less interchangeable meh, with the exception of some schools that will likely always remain some level of bad. She wonders why is ESPN (or any other outlet) is handing out big money for mediocre product, especially PAC10 and ACC (and mind you, she's a Pitt double alum/season tix holder).

Most eastern schools used to be independent. It worked for years. It could again.

 

[zls44]

As illustrated in UMASS AD Ryan Bamberg's recent comments ... Independent status is enhanced as there are now 7. The numbers are such that you have far more flexibility than when there were 4. In fact, he went on to say that the American Athletic Conference (where his fan base got all excited about a possible invite this summer) was not all that attractive because to the newly executed rights contract and UConn leaving. With UConn & Temple, he thought it was a good fit. Not without.

Mistake #1: Actually believing Ryan Bamford (which is what his name actually is, BTW), really didn't want an AAC invite. Which is ridiculous.

 

[AndOne]

Bamberg hinted that he expected that there were a few more Universities that may become Independent. Why? Because UConn & UMass ... Liberty ... were succeeding in scheduling.

Define "succeeding"? Their home schedules are horrible.

UMass 2019 schedule: Southern Illinois, Coastal Carolina, Akron, UConn, Liberty, BYU

Liberty 2019 schedule: Cuse, Buffalo, Hampton, New Mexico, Maine, New Mexico State

 

[Redding Husky]

Not sure. CFB already is the minor league for the NFL. Always has been. What’s benefit to the league of having a smaller farm system? What’s benefit to ESPN of having small inventory to promote.

ESPN is annoyed by schools like Pitt, Washington State, Oregon State, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Maryland, Rutgers, Kansas, Purdue, etc.

They want Alabama-Michigan and ND-Oklahoma every weekend.

 

[huskyrob1]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

They would sue and they would win based on anti trust concerns. ESPN isn't that stupid to attempt something like that.

 

[Hoophound]

Nobody wants that. The beauty of college sport is it is inclusive in relative terms because fanbases from all over the country are represented. Try to make a New England CFB fan cheer for Rutgers or Virginia Tech, it will never happen. The whole concept would alienate millions of fans. The money is in more fans not less. You can only slim it down so far before it is just really crappy pro football.

 

[UConnDan97]

The MBA wife and I were talking about this last night. If UConn makes the finances work - even just cutting losses to minimum while still not showing profit - their example is going to be compelling to a number of G5s and maybe even weak sisters of P5 who see writing on the wall.

The wife basically asserts that there are only two conferences: 1) SEC, 2) B1G, and #2 by a wide margin. Other than Clemson and sometimes Oklahoma, everybody else is more or less interchangeable meh, with the exception of some schools that will likely always remain some level of bad. She wonders why is ESPN (or any other outlet) is handing out big money for mediocre product, especially PAC10 and ACC (and mind you, she's a Pitt double alum/season tix holder).

Most eastern schools used to be independent. It worked for years. It could again.

I love your wife. Not in the creepy way. In the, "You're smart as f#$@" way...

 

[Pudge]

I love your wife. Not in the creepy way. In the, "You're smart as f#$@" way...

l agree. That’s a wonderfully sports minded woman. Love that

 

[Padutch5]

ESPN is annoyed by schools like Pitt, Washington State, Oregon State, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Maryland, Rutgers, Kansas, Purdue, etc.

They want Alabama-Michigan and ND-Oklahoma every weekend.

The elephant in the room is that you know have three or four other viable sports networks. ESPN is no longer the only viable game in town. ESPN is struggling.
However I do agree with one thing in this thread. Ultimately there will be a group of schools that break away from the NCAA. As we UCONN fans have seen, its is a big bureaucracy, ,slow moving,Opaque, unpredictable, and very biased in its decisions [see North Carolina].

 

[Adios]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

Do you have any concrete proof or are you just whining?

 

[Marty Jackson]

I kind of agree with that. At one point during the earlier round of realignment there was a trial balloon of creating a league with FSU Miami Alabama ND Texas USC Michigan Ohio State Penn State and a few others. Obviously if you did it today you’d want Clemson maybe not USC and/or Miami. But the concept was maybe 16 teams who would play only each other. I think that is still possible that something like that emerges. If you are Alabama why do you want to carry Vanderbilt? You are Texas do you really want to go to Iowa City and, ugh, Kansas every year? Clemson wants to carry the ACC why exactly?

If you do that, schools get exposed. Of that group, someone will have to lose or they all split which could be even worse. These ‘alpha’ schools need the middlings to prop themselves up on.
I don’t see this system getting below 65 or so.
It’s not a coincidence the only schools to lose BCS are UConn, Cincy, and USF. All 3 only had that status for a short period. A school like WF or Northwestern would have a much better case should they be left on the outside looking in if not by choice.

 

[Redding Husky]

Do you have any concrete proof or are you just whining?

I’m 90% making a logical conclusion based on what they do and say. ESPN has little time or patience for schools that are not “elite”.

And I’m 10% whining because my schools are not in the elite category.

 

[gioff2323]

ESPN is annoyed by schools like Pitt, Washington State, Oregon State, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Maryland, Rutgers, Kansas, Purdue, etc.

They want Alabama-Michigan and ND-Oklahoma every weekend.

there are more folks annoyed by ESPN. CFB is slowly killing the golden goose, led by ESPN. Show one more bama-Clemson playoff game and watch the ratings continue to plummet.

 

[Nostical]

ESPN has little time or patience for schools that are not “elite”

I don’t blame Espn for wanting compelling games to televise. How many times have you flipped right by a game in the on screen guide because it was between two lackluster teams.
Espn needs lots of games and lots of teams but the prime time viewing slots are reserved for the biggest prime time names. You wouldn’t run the network any differently.

 

[UConnFranklin]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

Cool!! When we get to 32 teams each college can be a farm affiliate of an NFL team, e.g., Alabama Giants or Auburn Patriots, or even the Michigan Buccaneers. lol

 

[Padutch5]

Nobody wants that. The beauty of college sport is it is inclusive in relative terms because fanbases from all over the country are represented. Try to make a New England CFB fan cheer for Rutgers or Virginia Tech, it will never happen. The whole concept would alienate millions of fans. The money is in more fans not less. You can only slim it down so far before it is just really crappy pro football.

What is a possibility is some kind of relegation format like that dreaded European soccer . That would allow mistakes like Rutgers to be dropped while allowing deserving second or third tier teams to move up as a reward.

 

[billybud]

ESPN...like all who depend on advertisers, likes games that pull national audiences in sizable numbers...But they show other than just the big number pullers...

...this week I can watch on the ESPN family...ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU

Houston-SMU
Jackson State-Prairie View
Columbia-Dartmouth
Appalachian State-South Alabama

 

[UConnJim]

ESPN wants an elite group of 32 football schools ... ND, Texas, USC, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. It will be a junior NFL.

Lord knows what happens to the other 100 FBS schools when that happens.

Never going to happen. Why? If you take the top 32 football teams and they only played each other, math says half of teams would probably be 0.500 or below. Talk about a way to kill a schools fan base.

The top schools love going 11-1, 10-2, 9-3 every year even if they beat some bad teams. Their fans demand their teams target 10 wins per year.

In my opinion, BYU, Army, and UConn as football independents are unique relative to UMass, Liberty, NM State. Why? The first three have history with a number of P5 schools in a number of sports which allows them to find schools willing to play them. For example, what school would not want to play Army in football or UConn in men’s and women’s basketball? UMass, Liberty, and NM State do not have those relationships.

I think the AAC will thrive because they are the best conference in the G5 for football and basketball so I don’t think you will see AAC schools thinking independence in football. I think it is a possibility for Navy to return to football independence as the reason they joined the AAC was to ensure football scheduling. With UConn going independent, this would help Navy with scheduling. And, the AAC could go to 10 in football and 11 in basketball and play a round robin and maintain a football championship game. I think we will find out Navy’s plans in the next 6 months.