The future lies ahead.

[Zorro]

OK. This is a board of serious and knowledgeable people, and we have a lot of time until next season. So here are a few questions for the serious and knowledgeable with a lot of time:

1. We have lost Stef, Big Game Bria and BB, but have gained Sadie, Gabby, Courtney and Kia. Stewie is spending the summer working on taking opponents off the dribble and other refinements, Kiah will have no choice but to get serious about offense, MoJet is bound to be even better, hopefully Morgan will again be Morgan, and KML is KML. Kiah is not Stef, but she is pretty dad burned good. So

a. Will the Huskies be better next year than this year, or not as good? (Show your work.)

b. Will the answer to “a” change as the year progresses, assuming good health for all?

c. Are your answers to “a” and “b” in absolute terms, or relative to the competition?

2. The following year we lose the Big Ks, but gain (at least) De’Janie, Napheesa, Katie Lou and Natalie. Assuming that we get no more 2015 recruits, again how would you answer a, b and c above for the 2015-16 season.

3. If you were a Vegas handicapper, how would you set the odds that the Huskies win the NC in 2014-15, 2015-16, or a two win parlay?

 

[rford53]

OK. This is a board of serious and knowledgeable people, and we have a lot of time until next season. So here are a few questions for the serious and knowledgeable with a lot of time:

1. We have lost Stef, Big Game Bria and BB, but have gained Sadie, Gabby, Courtney and Kia. Stewie is spending the summer working on taking opponents off the dribble and other refinements, Kiah will have no choice but to get serious about offense, MoJet is bound to be even better, hopefully Morgan will again be Morgan, and KML is KML. Kiah is not Stef, but she is pretty dad burned good. So

a. Will the Huskies be better next year than this year, or not as good? (Show your work.)

b. Will the answer to “a” change as the year progresses, assuming good health for all?

c. Are your answers to “a” and “b” in absolute terms, or relative to the competition?

2. The following year we lose the Big Ks, but gain (at least) De’Janie, Napheesa, Katie Lou and Natalie. Assuming that we get no more 2015 recruits, again how would you answer a, b and c above for the 2015-16 season.

3. If you were a Vegas handicapper, how would you set the odds that the Huskies win the NC in 2014-15, 2015-16, or a two win parlay?

a & b = 2014-15 will end up being better than last year by NCAA tournament time. As we start the season they will be slightly less in efficiency of offense ( Steph a minus here) however the defense should be just as strong or stronger with more quick, agile guards. Our press will be more frequent leading to more turnovers for opponents and more easy transition baskets. The Huskies puppies may take a while to jell completely yet I anticipate full integration by March. In addition, we can assume all returning Huskies will be better in 2014-15. And with Morgan back to here pre-surgery self, we will have a starting five that will be almost as strong as this last year.
c. I only seeing South Carolina stronger this year compared to last as the teams we are scheduled to play. All the others are going to be less compared to 2013-14. Come tournament time Tennessee may be better as well as Texas A&M but not to the point of approaching UConn. All games are 10 points or better point spread and another undefeated championship season.

All the other positives for UConn stay the same - coaching, tradition, work ethic, boneyard support. Unbeatable and better than anyone else.

 

[rvwsleep]

Are you grading the responses ? "Show work" ? The Huskies will not be as good as last year in 2014-2015 BUT still good enough to win it all. 4 freshman in does not equal Stef and Bria out (Even when counting improvements in Stewart's and Jefferson's play). (On edit. Though Tuck could be the wild card if she recovers fully) The following year, IMO, the huskies will be better than this coming year.(On edit. Butler equals Kia, everyone else returns and a fabulous freshman class)
They would have to be the odds on favorite to win this year and, even though I think they will be better in 2015-2016, not quite as heavy favorites because of the increased level of competition in the following year

 

[rford53]

OK. This is a board of serious and knowledgeable people, and we have a lot of time until next season. So here are a few questions for the serious and knowledgeable with a lot of time:

1. We have lost Stef, Big Game Bria and BB, but have gained Sadie, Gabby, Courtney and Kia. Stewie is spending the summer working on taking opponents off the dribble and other refinements, Kiah will have no choice but to get serious about offense, MoJet is bound to be even better, hopefully Morgan will again be Morgan, and KML is KML. Kiah is not Stef, but she is pretty dad burned good. So

a. Will the Huskies be better next year than this year, or not as good? (Show your work.)

b. Will the answer to “a” change as the year progresses, assuming good health for all?

c. Are your answers to “a” and “b” in absolute terms, or relative to the competition?

2. The following year we lose the Big Ks, but gain (at least) De’Janie, Napheesa, Katie Lou and Natalie. Assuming that we get no more 2015 recruits, again how would you answer a, b and c above for the 2015-16 season.

3. If you were a Vegas handicapper, how would you set the odds that the Huskies win the NC in 2014-15, 2015-16, or a two win parlay?

2. The same process for the next year. Integration of puppies leads to a better , undefeated team come March.
3. 2/1 odds of a four peat

 

[MilfordHusky]

Provocative questions, my friend!

I'll give some partial answers for now, during a break from touch-up painting.

By the end of the season, last year's starting line-up was perhaps the best ever--as good as 2002 and 2009. But we were skating on thin ice, with only Kiah providing consistently high play off the bench. We were one major injury from a 37-2 national semi finalist or worse. At the beginning of the season, we had questions: (1) Would Stewie be the player who slumped in mid season or the one who starred in post season? (2) Would Bria be healthy and back to her sophomore AA form? (3) How good would Moriah be in the starting PG slot. To say that each was answered in the affirmative is an understatement.

Of course, we have questions going into next season, but I think they are less critical: (1) What can Kiah contribute on the offensive end? (2) Who is the 5th starter? (3) How ready are the frosh? The biggest question is health, particularly regarding Morgan and Gabby.

I'm going to make the optimistic assumption that Morgan and Gabby are 100% by January 1. I'll also assume that Kiah Nurse will be a huge surprise to some people. I think she's a top 3 freshman. I think that Stewie and MoJett will be even better. Yikes! Kaleena will be healthy. I think she and Kiah play with a sense of urgency. I look for Kiah to replace the DPOY on the defensive end. She won't match Stef's passing or shooting, but Stewie and Kaleena will get their shots, so offense is not critical. I think Kia replaces Bria and is less aggressive and less experienced, but almost as effective. Thus, it's another stellar starting lineup, with 3 of the top 5 players in the country in Stewie, Kaleena, and Moriah. Morgan plays Kiah's 2014 role as the first player off the bench. She'll be the best reserve in the country. I think Gabby will be a matchup nightmare and both Courtney and Sadie provide quality minutes. Saniya gets back to where she was in the early part of the season. In short, I think the team is comparable to the 40-0 team, but deeper. Will they get leadership like Stef and Bria provided? I think MoJett is in charge next year. She's got the keys to the Ferrari, and it's in her nature. Pencil her in for the Lieberman Award. She'll dominate games.

 

[tomcat]

As much as I like Kia Nurse's upside potential IMHO to say she will step in and fill Bria's spot by the end of the year seems really, really optimistic. On the other hand, there's something really special about Ekmark, too, and I think she may be more mature right from the start than the others.

As for the injuries, we can hope that Gabby and Morgan are back in form by December, but especially in Morgan's case, we're talking recovery from a truly serious surgery. Again, too optimistic for my tastes.

 

[chrissaran]

If Kiah plays as well as she did in the tournament and works on her offense, if Morgan and KML are completely healthy, combined with the Husky pups, we can be better than last year because of the depth at the guard/small forward positions. That's if everything goes right. You cannot replace Stef's passing ability, leadership and especially her personality. Also, there's no way to replace "Big Game" Bria's tenacity.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

There's almost no chance of being as good as this past season. Statistically, the '13-'14 team was as good as any ever. Sure, it was mostly based on six players but as Doug Bruno said, there were five WNBA 1st-round picks on the squad.

There are more question marks coming into '14-'15 with Tuck's health, Chong's development, Gabby's knee, Stokes' ability to play under more pressure for 30 minutes, etc. Still has a chance to be a tremendous team, but might have to lean on 4, 23, and 30 fairly significantly.

As for the '15-'16 team, the roster looks great on paper. Not knowing what will happen in '14 means the same ???'s arise regarding Tuck, Chong, and Williams. And it's hard to know how the minutes situation will work itself out with so much talent. I'd have a better guess if I could narrow the roster down to an 8 or 9 player rotation.

As for the competition, Notre Dame looks stout on paper depending on the development of Reimer, Westbeld, and Turner.

 

[Zorro]

I appreciate the opinions; I am really interested. Now here are mine;
1. I think that things will be a little disorganized for the Huskies during the first part of the season, as they almost always are. Geno will be looking at Saniya and the Four Freshmen (be a great name for a musical group!) to see a) who starts at the 2 spot and 2) who is first (of them) off the bench. But since the competition will be in the same situation, and since we do have stupendous players at the other four positions, as well as the best sub in wcbb in Morgan, I don't see how the Huskies stand to lose to or even be seriously challenged by anyone, including ND. After the half-way mark, Geno will have pretty much decided on a 7 or 8 player rotation, and efficiency will improve as je whips them into psychological shape for the conference tourney and the dance. I make the Huskies odds-on favorites to win another NC, maybe 1 to 2.

2. Same as 1, with a slightly different cast. We will lose the best defensive center in the country (once again!) and the best outside shooter in the country, heavy losses to be sure, but will still have Stewie, MoJet and (God grant it) Morgan, as well as Saniya, the Four Sophs, and at least four highly superior newcomers. The only teams who might give them any trouble are ND and SCar, but, bar unexpected disasters, I think they will go undefeated again. Again, odds-on favorites.

3. As an odds-maker, I would make the Huskies at least even money to win the next two NCs. Life is uncertain, but it is just hard to see how another team might beat them, especially at the Dance, where Geno and the Huskies are always at their best. And with MoJet and Stewie, they are very unlikely to beat themselves.

And you can quote me.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm trying not to be overconfident, but this reminds me of Tiger in his prime. Or maybe Secretariat. The smart money took Tiger over the rest of the field. And won.

We are very, very fortunate.

 

[Vowelguy]

"The future lies ahead."

The first indisputable thing ever said on the Boneyard.
Although I still give 7-2 odds that someone argues the future is behind us.

 

[MilfordHusky]

"The future lies ahead."

The first indisputable thing ever said on the Boneyard.
Although I still give 7-2 odds that someone argues the future is behind us.

I think Yogi, in talking about an outstanding prospect, said, "His entire future is ahead of him."

 

[msf22b]

Let's take a dim view for a second.

Morgan and Gabby remain impaired
Saniya does not blossom.
Kiah stays at the same level.
All not impossible.

But it probably doesn't matter
We have the best 3-4 combo in the history of woman's BB
And a point who was the best in the country for much of the season.

At last season'e level, Kiah is still a monster on the boards and on D

And I've never been concerned about the 2 or time-off for Mo.
An amazing group of young guards, who shoot, leap, defend.
We'll stop fretting about Bria's loss, the day they show up.
I'd be surprised if at least two of them are not ready for prime time upon arrival and I truly expect that number to be three.

So the offense runs a little differently; methinks Geno can handle it.
And then the next year, when size and skill shows up
Forget about it.
Hard to predict avalanches of undefeated seasons
but NCAA championships…As far as the eye can see.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I will say that the one issue they could have this year is foul trouble up the middle. This was often talked about last year but hardly ever was an issue. There is no Stokes to back up Stokes, and Dolson was great at being able to defend without fouling. Stokes has run up high foul totals in fairly limited minutes during her career. UConn would be forced to go small, perhaps dangerously small if Tuck's health is a problem. From that perspective Stokes might be the key to the season.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I think Yogi, in talking about an outstanding prospect, said, "His entire future is ahead of him."

Kind of the opposite of Brooke Shields infamous quote, "Smoking kills. And when you're killed, the best part of your life is over."

 

[Suebird10fan]

I'd rate the odds of the fourpeat at 70%. As far as showing my work, see MilfordHusky's brilliant post.

 

[Tonyc]

Well we never thought the team of Renee Kalena Tina and Maya would be matched and then we had last years team. A big plus for this years team is we have a bench full of scoreing guards/wings. How they develop and how long it takes for them to develop remains to be seen. I agree if Tuck doesnt come back that would present problems. If she does then that presents problems for our opponents. Tuck can score inside and out and play inside if Stokes or Stewart get in foul trouble. She can be the answer down low. Many of the question marks were covered in other posts. My gut tells me Tuck will be back and it will take time to get back to 100%. Williams I hope is ready to go but we've seen enough ACLs to know thats a 50/50 chance.

We have our nucleus back and our defense and that will win us games. KML is healthy, Chong has one year of experience under her belt, and our freshman class will be able to give our starters a rest which imo is the reason we had big leads and then allowed opponents to come back in some games before we poured it on.

As good as this incoming class is and next years is it will take time for them to develop and that is another question mark. However we have KML and Stewart and if theyre double teamed thats going to leave somebody else open and thats going to prove how good we are. We may not win every game by double digits and with that said opponents will have a tuff time over coming that. Chong and MoJeff made very few mistakes another plus. I do think Stokes Chong and MoJeff will score more this season because the focus of opponents will be on KML and Stewart and both of them should be NPOY.

As far as winning a NC. You've got to be able to score against our defense. Yes we will win another NC this season and next season. I really dont think UConn will lose a NC as long as Breanna is here and Geno is coaching.

 

[Kibitzer]

If Morgan Tuck is physically capable of playing to her immense ability, UConn will be unbeatable. She is the key to perfection.

 

[Sonny44]

If Kiah plays as well as she did in the tournament and works on her offense, if Morgan and KML are completely healthy, combined with the Husky pups, we can be better than last year because of the depth at the guard/small forward positions. That's if everything goes right. You cannot replace Stef's passing ability, leadership and especially her personality. Also, there's no way to replace "Big Game" Bria's tenacity.

Your answer has at least four "ifs" in it.

So, no we won't be as good a team as last year, but will we be better than everyone else? That's the important question.
I doubt we'll be undefeated, but the NC, that's the important thing.
So here are my thoughts. I think we have a near 100% chance of making the final four. Then we have a 75% chance of beating any of the other three. So two 75% chances boil down to roughly a 50% chance of winning the NC.

 

[Sonny44]

Kind of the opposite of Brooke Shields infamous quote, "Smoking kills. And when you're killed, the best part of your life is over."

THAT'S just plAIN WRONG. hopefully WHEN YOU'RE DEAD the best part of your life is just beginning. I guess she just hasn't heard that. Darn that caps lock key!

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'd rate the odds of the fourpeat at 70%. As far as showing my work, see MilfordHusky's brilliant post.

Are you copying off me again?

Thanks for the compliment.

 

[maddoggy]

I think Yogi, in talking about an outstanding prospect, said, "His entire future is ahead of him."

I had a boss at the AP who once told me "You have a brilliant future behind you."

 

[reno tony]

As I thought about question 3 I wondered what kind of odds I would need to get to bet against UCONN winning the next two NCs. I certainly would need at least 5 to one for next season and probably 4 to one for the following year. So I would definitely take anything better than two to one for the two year parlay, which would actually be called a proposition bet.

Show my work: Only issue next season will be if Morgan isn't healthy and Kiah gets hurt. Even then, Breanna is a pretty good fill at the five. We just become small and very fast. The following year we will have sophomore guards galore, Natalie and the freshman bigs coming in so there is coverage at all positions against injury. Losing KML will hurt but not affect overall outcomes, assuming Geno can get some results from all his high-potential guys. This will be a good decade to be a UCONN WBB fan.

45 TO GO​

 

[MilfordHusky]

I had a boss at the AP who once told me "You have a brilliant future behind you."

Per Yogi, a player's limitations were limitless.

 

[Tonyc]

Let me take this a step further. Our next freshman class has 3 of the top 10 and Butler coming in as a Soph. That class does not include Asia Durr and if she comes we have 4 of the top 10. The following year 2016 we are looking at Cox 6'4 Ionescu, McCoy 6'4, Dangerfield and Boley 6'2. Alot of height and some very good guards all top 10. Now before we get all excited we have to expect some will come and some wont depending on who commits. Those are two good classes. Most teams are recruiting 2015 now and UConn appears to finished with the 2015 class only waiting on Durrs decision. That leaves other coaches with whats left and if UConn gets Durr a possible 4 in the top 10 UConn has the number 1 and 2 ranked players in the class. Going into 2016 we're looking very good already. That doesnt leave much on the table for other schools. UConn continues to distance themselves from everybody else.