OT: The FBS Playoff Sim

[Purple Stein]

Since the FCS playoffs are awesome, I started wondering what would happen if a comparable 24 team FBS tournament were to take place. So, I built one that I'll sim alongside the FCS playoffs (I'm already two rounds behind!). The field is the top 20 in the CFP poll and 4 unranked AQs (FAU, Boise State, Toledo, Troy). The non-ranked AQ were seeded according to RPI. Troy gets the Sun Belt bid despite sharing the conference title with Appalachian State due to RPI.

Here's the bracket (first round forthcoming ...)

All games will be simmed at:

College Football Game Simulator - NCAAGameSim.com

Through the quarterfinals, home field advantage will be assigned to the lower seeds. Semifinals and the Championship game will be at neutral sites.

You can sim ahead of me, but your results won't be official Look at some of these games -- isn't this a tournament you'd want to see?

 

[Purple Stein]

If that's impossible to read, first round:

17 LSU @ 16 Michigan State
24 Troy @ 9 Penn State
20 Memphis @ 13 Stanford
21 Boise State @ 12 UCF
18 Washington State @ 15 TCU
23 Toledo @ 10 Miami (a rematch from September!)
19 Oklahoma State @ 14 Notre Dame
22 FAU @ 11 Washington

 

[DoctorWho85]

I'd like to see the results of this. Pretty cool stuff

 

[Scoe]

Heres round 1

LSU @ MSU
17-14 LSU

Troy @ Penn State
24-7 Penn State

Memphis @ Stanford
31-26 Stanford

Boise State @UCF
55-24 UCF

Washington State @ TCU
21-20 TCU

Toledo@ Miami
20-17 Miami

Oklahoma State @ ND
50-17 ND

FAU@Washington
33-17 FAU

 

[Scoe]

Round 2

LSU@Clemson
24-10 Clemson

Penn State@ USC
48-10 USC

Stanford@Alabama
40-23 Alabama

UCF@Ohio State
51-24 Ohio State

TCU@Oklahoma
49-17 Oklahoma

Miami@Auburn
34-3 Auburn

ND@Georgia
38-34 Georgia

FAU@Wisconson
45-0 Wisconsin

 

[Scoe]

First 2 rounds took awhile will resume quarterfinals later.

 

[Purple Stein]

Halfway through the first round. Results so far:

17. LSU 48 16. Michigan St 12
This game has been simmed 35 times on the site, with 18 going to LSU and 17 going to Michigan State. In our version, Michigan State committed 5 turnovers and got blown out at home. LSU is on to Clemson next!

9. Penn State 62 24. Troy 7
Only 71 total yards from Saquon Barkley -- and look at the results! After avoiding an LSU-like letdown, Penn State travels to eighth seeded USC in a second round matchup meant for the Rose Bowl.

13. Stanford 41 20. Memphis 24
Not the way any good AAC fan wanted the season to end for Memphis. Bryce Love ran for 279 flipping yards -- in sim world, I guess that high ankle sprain is feeling pretty good. How many yards will he get against Alabama in the second round?

12. UCF 44 21. Boise State 15
Good start for UCF on the road to the Purple Stein Cup (it's a stein and a cup!). The road to glory goes through Columbus in Round Two.

Updated bracket and the rest of the first round when I can find a minute -- eager to see if Toledo can exact revenge against Miami!

 

[Purple Stein]

The rest of Round One:

15. TCU 50 18. Washington State 7
In what should have ben the second closest game of the first round, TCU intercepted Luke Falk 3 times in route to a 50-7 route. TCU heads into a second round matchup with Oklahoma, looking to avenge two regular season losses to the Sooners. It's almost like the committee planned it!

10. Miami 23 23 Toledo 6
Highlighted by a smothering defense it took two four quarter touchdown passes by Malik Rosier for Miami to close the deal against Toledo. That's the end of MACtion for this season -- Miami will get a stern test from Auburn in the second round.

19. Oklahoma State 34 14. Notre Dame 13
Mason Rudolph threw for 369 yards while the Oklahoma State Defense limited Notre Dame to just 168 passing yards en route to just the second upset of the first round. Can the Cowboys outscore Georgia in round two?

11. Washington 31 22. FAU 16
Chris Peterson had his hands full wit FAU, but the Huskies pulled away in the second half for a comfortable two score victory. Jason Driskel was limited to just 122 passing yards and was unable to find the end zone against a tough PAC-12 defense.

Here's the updated bracket:

It's notable how much the sim likes favorites and the Big 12. Second Round later today or on Tuesday!

 

[Scoe]

Quarterfinals
USC@Clemson
20-17 Clemson

Ohio State@Alabama
28-26 Ohio State

Auburn@Oklahoma
35-17 Auburn (Mayfield had an awful game, 10-26, 166 yds, 1 TD and 4 INT)

Wisconsin@Georgia
51-16 Georgia

 

[Scoe]

Semifinals neutral site

Clemson vs Ohio State
31-26 Clemson

Auburn vs Georgia
23-17 Auburn

National Championship
34-9
Auburn is the National Champion

 

[DoctorWho85]

Cool stuff. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

[Purple Stein]

The second round is underway! At the top of the bracket:


17. LSU 33 1. Clemson 17
In the first major upset of the tournament, 17th ranked LSU went into Death Valley and routed the defending national champions by a score of 33-17. Clemson jumped out to a 7-0 lead but was outscored 33-3 until a garbage time TD by Kelly Bryant made the score appear closer than the game was. Hunter Renfroe had 6 catches for 88 yards in the loss.


8. USC 34 9. Penn St 20
In what should have been a closer game, 8th seeded USC booked their ticket into the quarterfinals with a two touchdown win over Penn State. USC rushed out to a 27-3 lead before Penn State cut the score to 27-20 in the fourth quarter. Ronald Jones put the game on ice with a decisive 8 yard TD run. Sam D’Arnold went 20-30 for 220 in the win, while Saquon Barkley rushed for 111 yards in the loss. USC gets a home game in the quarterfinals against LSU.


4. Alabama 10 13. Stanford 7
In a game for the defensive purist, Alabama held a 10-0 lead from the second quarter on, ceding only a late fourth quarter score, and held off 13th ranked Stanford 10-7 in Tuscaloosa. Stanford couldn’t move the ball in the air at all, completing only 10-31 passes for 81 yards. They would have been better off feeding Bryce Love more, who ran 19 times for 118 in the loss. Bo Scarborough ran for just 31 yards on 8 carries, but his TD was enough to put Alabama into the quarterfinals.


5. Ohio State 41 12. UCF 10
Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes avoided the dreaded 12/5 upset and ended the American’s hopes for a national championship, trouncing UCF 41-10. UCF scored the game’s first TD, but the score was 41-3 Ohio State the rest of the way. JT Barrett threw for 359 yards and ran for 85 more in the win. Ohio State heads to Alabama in a headline grabbing quarterfinal matchup.

 

[Purple Stein]

At the bottom of the bracket:


2. Oklahoma 52 15 TCU 19
The third time was not the charm for TCU, as their third crack at Big 12 champion Oklahoma ended just like the first two – in a humbling loss. In the biggest second round rout to this point, Baker Mayfield went 23-32 for 447 yards and 7 touchdowns, making an early case for tournament MVP. Mayfield will attempt to keep the momentum going in the quarterfinals against the winner of Auburn and Miami.


10. Auburn 21 7. Miami 14
It was a game that came down to the very last play – and it was Auburn that made the play. After Miami missed a field goal on their last possession, Auburn’s Eli Stove caught a 34 yard TD pass from Jarrett Stidham as time expired, giving Auburn a breathless 21-14 win over the Hurricanes. The game was knotted at 14 going into the fourth, and the two teams exchanged missed field goals before Stove made the play that ended the ACC’s tournament. A stiff challenge awaits at Oklahoma next week.


3. Georgia 38 19. Oklahoma State 24
Down just 21-17 in the third quarter, Mason Rudoloph was intercepted on consecutive drives, allowing Georgia to pull away from Oklahoma State by a final score of 38-24. Jake Fromm completed 13 of 17 passes, but Georgia was paced by 326 rushing yards from 8 different runners. No back for the Bulldogs eclipsed 100 yards. Georgia will host a quarterfinal matchup.


6. Wisconsin 45 11. Washington 16
Chris Peterson didn’t have anything left in his bag of tricks – Wisconsin opened a 31-0 third quarter advantage en route to a convincing 45-16 home win over the 11th seeded Huskies. The game was exactly what many predicted – after an underwhelming first found home win against FAU, Washington didn’t have the horses to keep up with Wisconsin. The Badgers head between the hedges in the quarterfinals.

 

[Purple Stein]

And the updated bracket:

Quarterfinals (if the bracket is unreadable): 17 LSU at 8 USC, 5. Ohio State at 4. Alabama, 7. Auburn at 2. Oklahoma, 6. Wisconsin at 3. Georgia.

Remaining teams by conference:
SEC - 4 (an all SEC final 4 is possible!)
Big 10 - 2
Big 12 -1
Pac 12 -1

The ACC and AAC are toast.

I'll sim the quarterfinals alongside the FCS quarterfinals this weekend

 

[Purple Stein]

The Quarterfinals

8. USC 51 17. LSU 17
There will be no all-SEC Final Four. USC scored touchdowns on each of its first three possessions and used a smothering defense to end LSU’s cinderalla run by a score of 51-17. The Tigers had reason for optimism after shocking top seeded Clemson in the second round, but they could muster only 87 total passing yards against USC. Sam D’Arnold, meanwhile, threw for 374 and two touchdowns, while Ronald Jones added 121 rushing yards and a jaw dropping 4 TDs. The Trojans will pack their bags for the Sugar Bowl and a final four matchup.


4. Alabama 20 5. Ohio State 17
In the most anticipated matchup of the quarterfinals, Alabama proved the CFP selection committee right by holding off 5th seeded Ohio State 20-17 in Tuscaloosa. Breaking open a defensive struggle, JT Barrett connected on a 46 yard touchdown pass to P. Campbell late in the third quarter to bring Ohio State within 20-17, but that would prove to be the game's final score. Ohio State couldn't get any closer than the Alabama 37 yard line in the fourth quarter. Alabama won a close game for the second consecutive week despite missing 3 of 5 field goal attempts. Our first final four matchup is now set -- 8. USC vs 4. Alabama in New Orleans.


7. Auburn 27 2. Oklahoma 13
The glass slipper might just fit Guz Malzhan’s Tigers. One week after escaping Miami with a last second touchdown, the Auburn defense stifled the high flying Sooners 27-13 in Norman. Jarret Stidham was brutally efficient for the Tigers, completing 75% of his passes for 210 yards, keeping the ball away from the explosive Sooners. Heisman trophy winner Baker Mayfield, fresh off a seven touchdown performance against TCU, was held to just 192 passing yards and one passing touchdown. Auburn heads to the Rose Bowl against the winner of Wisconsin vs. Georgia.


3. Georgia 24 6. Wisconsin 19
Alex Hornibrook’s 30 yard pass was broken up as time expired and Georgia became the third team to punch its ticket to the final four, defeating 6th seeded Wisconsin 24-19. The Badgers, who never led in the game, shut out Georgia in the second half and marched down the field in the final two minutes, threatening to steal the game from the Bulldogs. Ultimately, Wisconsin ran out of time. Nick Chubb ran for 131 yards for Georgia, who head to the Rose Bowl for an SEC Championship Game rematch against 7th seeded Auburn.

 

[Purple Stein]

And the updated bracket. 3 of the final 4 teams are from the SEC, and, according to our Sim, the CFP committee only got two teams right (Alabama and Georgia). USC and Auburn round out our final four (Clemson lost in round two, Oklahoma lost in the quarterfinals).

That's a final four of 8. USC vs 4. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and 7. Auburn vs 3. Georgia in the Rose Bowl.

The final four will be simmed the weekend of 12/16 -- will there be an all SEC national championship?

 

[Palatine]

It will be interesting to see if the program follows chalk or predicts some upsets.

 

[Purple Stein]

The Semifinals


4. Alabama 45 8. USC 3 (Sugar Bowl)

Alabama intercepted Sam D’Arnold twice and made him look like anything but an NFL-ready quarterback, routing USC 45-3 in the Sugar Bowl and punching their ticket to the National Championship Game. After struggling to find their offense in the first two rounds of the tournament, Alabama capitalized on three USC first half turnovers, turning excellent field position into 21 points. Alabama controlled the game on the ground from there, rushing for 320 yards, and their defense held USC to just 3 points despite 3 Hurts interceptions. D’Arnold was visibly frustrated throughout the game, completing just 11 passes for 99 yards – a far cry from the nearly 400 yards he threw for against LSU in the quarterfinals. Alabama advances to its third consecutive National Championship game, and this time around it will be an all SEC affair as they await the winner of the Rose Bowl between Georgia and Auburn.



3. Georgia 23 7. Auburn 10 (Rose Bowl)

The Granddaddy of Them All lived up to its billing as Georgia won their rubber game with SEC rival Auburn by a score of 23-20. After a low scoring first half, Georgia seized a 20-7 advantage early in the fourth quarter. A four yard touchdown run by Kam Martin and two short field goals by Daniel Carson drew the Tigers even late in the fourth. But Jake Fromm connected with Javon Wims on a 60 yard pass to the Auburn 11 with just under two minutes remaining, and Rodrigo Blankenship thrilled the Pasadena crowd by drilling a 26 yard field goal moments later to secure the victory. Auburn got the ball back at their own 20, but time ran out on the Tigers at their own 37 yard line. Georgia won despite 3 interceptions from Fromm, who threw for 261 yards. Kerryon Johnson was held to just 52 yards for Auburn – Nick Chubb to just 42 for the Bulldogs. Georgia will have a home field advantage when they play Alabama in an all SEC National Championship Game on January 6th in Atlanta.

National Championship, (Sim Date 1/6): 4. Alabama vs. 3. Georgia, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

 

[Purple Stein]

And the bracket:

It's a long haul to 1/6 -- I'll try to fill in with some other interesting sims if time allows

 

[Purple Stein]

With everything settled except the "Sim National Championship" (coming January 6th!), I thought I'd sim UConn against some of the tournament field. First up:

UConn vs. The First Four Out (All on Neutral Fields)

(25. Northwestern, 26. Virginia Tech, 27. Mississippi State, 28. NC State)

25. Northwestern 20 UConn 9

26. Virginia Tech 17 UConn 20 (Opened a 20-3 lead and held on!)

27. Mississippi State 54 UConn 7

28. North Carolina State 20 UConn 23 (Tarbutt game winning 35 yard FG)

UConn goes 2-2 against the first four out? Luck is always a factor, but these games show how much the sim hates the ACC (top seeded Clemson went out in the round of 16, no ACC team made the final 8, and UConn is apparently owning its mid-tier teams). It also shows how much the sim loves the SEC (as is also shown in the simmed final four).

 

[DoctorWho85]

I'm impressed your simulation actually had the National Championship game chosen correctly

 

[UConnDan97]

I'm impressed your simulation actually had the National Championship game chosen correctly

Only because it didn't have UCF on the Auburn side of the bracket...

 

[Hoophound]

This sim is bogus. UConn wouldn’t have beat VTech or NCSU. Might have scored quite a few points, but they would have scored more.

 

[BlueMAB]

This sim is bogus. UConn wouldn’t have beat VTech or NCSU. Might have scored quite a few points, but they would have scored more.

It also got the two teams in the championship right (despite the fact in real life they only had to win one game rather than three).

 

[Purple Stein]

This sim is bogus. UConn wouldn’t have beat VTech or NCSU. Might have scored quite a few points, but they would have scored more.

Sim likes Edsall! Here's UConn vs. the last four in and vs the final four:

Against the last 4 in:

24. Troy 42 UConn 31
23. Toledo 45 UConn 14
22. Florida Atlantic 34 UConn 0 (Simulated Tarbutt missed a 23 yarder and a 32 harder)
21. Boise State 17 UConn 6


Against the sim final 4:

8. USC 26 UConn 13 (Sim also thinks Darnold should stay in school)
4. Alabama 45 UConn 20 (Jalen Hurts with 333 total yards)
7. Auburn 48 UConn 10 (the master bests the pupil …)
3. Georgia 43 UConn 7 (Huskies muster just 82 passing yards on 16 completions, but Donovan Williams did have an 80 yard run!)

It is interesting to me, though, how the sim overvalues the SEC, undervalues the ACC, and largely devalues UCF. FWIW, the B1g went 3-4 in the sim, the Pac 12 4-3 (with 2 of those 4 wins coming from USC).